Can Caleb Williams Still Reach 4,000 Passing Yards? ...Middle East

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Can Caleb Williams Still Reach 4,000 Passing Yards?

Believe it or not, we’re in the final leg of the NFL regular season. When the season began, many had 4,000 yards as the goal for Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. This number would eclipse Erik Kramer’s franchise record and make Williams the first player in franchise history to eclipse the 4,000-yard mark.

With four games remaining on the schedule, Williams has 2,908 passing yards this season, putting him 1,092 yards away from the mark, or 273 yards per contest down the stretch.

    Oct 26, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

    Can Caleb Williams still reach 4,000 passing yards?

    So, can Williams reach 4,000? Of course. However, it’s going to be tough.

    Williams is averaging 223.6 yards per contest this season. He has thrown for 200-plus yards just once in the last month (239 yards against the Steelers in Week 12), thanks to run-heavy game plans in Minnesota and Philly, and a disastrous first half for the offense at large at Lambeau on Sunday. So for Williams to hit the 4,000-yard mark, he would need to average 273 yards per contest in Chicago’s final four contests. Williams has thrown for more than 273 yards three times this season — Week 3 vs Dallas, Week 8 vs Baltimore, and Week 9 vs Cincinnati.

    With Cleveland (which ranks third in defensive passing yards allowed this season, and first in pass-rush win rate), Green Bay, San Francisco, and Detroit left on the schedule, it’s going to be possible, but highly improbable that Williams hits 4,000 this season.

    Nov 16, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) runs in the pocket during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

    So, what can Williams accomplish this season?

    Aside from leading the Bears to a playoff berth, Caleb Williams can still finish with a respectable campaign in the old counting statistics department. If Williams can hit his season average of 223.6 yards per contest in each of the final four games, he would finish with roughly 3,802 yards.

    Not only would that be a new career-high for Williams (by 261 yards), it would fall just 36 yards shy of Kramer’s franchise record of 3,838 yards in 1995. It would also fall 10 yards short of Jay Cutler‘s 2014 campaign, in which he threw for 3,812 yards. It would make him just the third Bears quarterback to throw for 3,800-plus yards, and put him within striking distance of the franchise record if Williams were to exceed his per-game pace this season in any of those games.

    Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears prepares to throw the game-winning touchdown pass to Devin Aromashodu against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field on December 28, 2009 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Vikings 36-30 in overtime. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

    The cold-weather games against the Browns and Packers at Soldier Field the next two weeks will be tough, but Chicago heads to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers in Week 17, and the 49ers are 23rd in the league in passing yardage allowed and 25th in the league in EPA/Pass.

    Chicago will finish their season against the Detroit Lions in Week 18. The Lions rank 15th in EPA/Pass defensively and 21st in passing yardage allowed this season. Detroit’s passing numbers will continue to slide with the loss of Brian Branch, who tore his Achilles in Detroit’s victory over Dallas in Week 14.

    Williams has 19 touchdowns on the season, one short of his 20 in his rookie season, and 10 short of Kramer’s franchise-record 29 in 1995. To break Kramer’s record, Williams would need to throw for no 2.5 touchdowns per game, or two in two games, and three in two games, minimally.

    Williams has thrown for three touchdowns three times this season, and two touchdowns an additional two times.

    While 4,000 yards would take a few outstanding box score performances, Williams is reasonably in reach of the franchise records for yardage and touchdowns this season.

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