We are back for our weekly dose of knee-jerk reactions to a single round of fixtures in the Premier League. Here are five from the 15th gameweek of the season.
Every week on a Monday, we look back on the weekend’s action in the Premier League with a bunch of slightly-too-hasty judgements about teams and players based on just one round of matches.
We all do it, right? We all say things on a Monday morning about our team that are a bit too reactionary. At Opta Analyst, we’re just brave enough to document a load of them every week for you to keep on record and use against us down the line. (Don’t look back through previous weeks too thoroughly, please.)
So, without further ado, here are five more knee-jerk reactions to what we’ve just witnessed in the Premier League.
Arsenal Are Going to Throw it Away
The thing with Arsenal running away with things at the top of the Premier League is that a lot of people have been waiting (im)patiently for them to show the first sign of slipping up before piling on.
So, for many, this weekend was like Christmas coming early.
Following three years of near misses and second-place finishes, Arsenal have looked destined to end their 22-year wait for another Premier League trophy this season. They are clearly the strongest team in the league, showing that while the other title challengers have so many flaws, they have barely any. They fully deserve their position at the top of the Premier League.
But on Saturday, they fell to only their second defeat in any competition this season, as Emiliano Buendía struck with a 95th-minute winner for Aston Villa.
That result means Arsenal have dropped points in their last three away games, and the gap at the top, which was six points only a couple of weeks ago, has been cut down to just two. Pessimistic Arsenal fans are worried, and opponents baying for another failure are sitting up and taking notice.
In reality, though, there are an awful lot of mitigating circumstances. Arsenal were missing their best two centre-backs as well as one of their back-ups, and they were playing away from home against the most in-form team in the league.
Arsenal are still top of the table, still massive favourites to win the title, doing so in 72.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations of the rest of the season, and are clearly still the best team in the league. There might be plenty of people hoping for or expecting a collapse, but it’s far too early to declare this recent wobble anything so significant… unless you’re making a kneejerk reaction.
Villa Are in the Title Race
Speaking of the most in-form team in the Premier League, with that win over Arsenal, Aston Villa have fired themselves into the conversation for the title race.
Now third in the table following five consecutive wins, and nine wins in their last 10 (only failing to win at Liverpool in that run), Unai Emery has led Villa into a very promising position. After Saturday’s win over Arsenal, the Opta supercomputer rates their title chances at 5.9%, which is nearly five times as high as Chelsea (1.2%) and almost nine times as high as Liverpool (0.7%). They are a real force and have become genuine contenders.
Part of the reason is that so many other big names – not least Chelsea and Liverpool – have been failing all around them, while Arsenal have shown the first signs of vulnerability in the last few weeks. In what might prove a relatively weak title race, the door might just have opened to an outsider like Villa.
They might be benefitting from not being in the Champions League this season, too. While six teams are playing in Europe’s biggest competition against the best sides around, Villa are in the Europa League. They are able to rotate more in that competition than many of their Premier League title rivals are able to in their midweek European fixtures.
Fifteen games in, this might be slightly early to make too much of Villa’s recent run, but at this stage, they are looking very good indeed. And even if they don’t actually challenge for the title, they could play a role in opening it up – they face Arsenal again in a few weeks’ time.
Barry Can Spark Everton’s European Challenge
Finally.
On Saturday afternoon, Thierno Barry finally opened his Everton account, finishing off coolly, calmly and with confidence after Iliman Ndiaye slipped him into a position where he, truthfully, absolutely had to score.
It ended an unconvincing start to life on Merseyside. It was his first goal for Everton from his 19th shot in his 17th appearance across all competitions for the club. He needed 16 shots and 693 minutes of gametime in the Premier League to get his first goal in Everton colours. The relief on his face was palpable as he celebrated breaking his duck, and his teammates were clearly delighted for him.
“I think every Evertonian wanted him to score,” manager David Moyes said. “I have to say the crowd has given him incredible support, and that gives [players] incredible energy.
“His goal was great for him because he has earned it.”
With Ndiaye, Jack Grealish and the in-form Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall playing behind Barry for an Everton side who are slowly rising up the table, the ingredients are there for the Frenchman to succeed. And with little other competition as Beto continues to flounder, Barry should get more chances.
But Moyes insists there has got to be more goals to come. “He’s got to score, when you’re playing centre-forward, otherwise we will find someone to replace him,” he said.
Barry has to build on this momentum, and if he can, Everton, who are now sixth, could even fight their way into Europe.
Farke Won’t Get Sacked
When Daniel Farke led Leeds United to the Premier League last season, it was the third time he’d won promotion to the top flight, having also done so twice with Norwich City.
Managing in the Championship? Farke has completed it.
But after suffering relegation once with his former club and then being sacked when they were bottom of the Premier League on his second attempt at managing in the Premier League, lots of observers have been quick to write off Leeds’ chances of survival under him this season. Many are just waiting for him to be sacked.
And after four defeats in November saw Leeds slide into the drop zone, the writing was on the wall. Farke was, once again, proving that management at this level was a step too far for him. In the sack race, he was storming clear of the field.
But he appears to have galvanised the squad and he also has the fans on side. Elland Road was rocking for a 3-1 win over world champions Chelsea in midweek, and the noise when Ao Tanaka struck a 96th-minute equaliser against Liverpool on Saturday was as loud as you’ll experience in this league.
Leeds are now two points and two places clear of the relegation zone, and belief will be starting to grow that their fate isn’t, in fact, already sealed with Farke at the helm. Perhaps Farke’s isn’t either.
Bournemouth Have Been Found Out
After a goalless draw with Chelsea on Saturday, it has now been six games since Bournemouth tasted victory – a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest back in October. They are now on the third-longest winless streak by any team in the Premier League this season, after Wolves’ current 14-game run and a nine-game run for Forest. Concerningly for Bournemouth, Andoni Iraola’s hugely impressive body of work is moving further and further into the rear-view mirror.
In this recent run, they have been battered by Aston Villa, struggled to a 2-2 draw at home to relegation-threatened West Ham, thrown away a 2-0 lead at Sunderland to lose 3-2, and lost while failing to score at home to Everton. In other words, it hasn’t been a run of games that you’d expect them to do so poorly in.
This run has almost exactly coincided with a poor run of form for star man Antoine Semenyo who, after starting the season with six goals and three assists in his first seven appearances, is now without a goal involvement in seven games. Obviously, the bigger picture isn’t quite as simple as that, though. There’s more to Bournemouth’s slump than one player’s struggles.
Perhaps most concerning is how leaky the defence has been. It has looked something like it was expected to after three of Europe’s biggest teams snapped up three of last season’s first-choice back four over the summer. Saturday’s clean sheet was, though, a step in the right direction.
Is this something to be concerned about? Has Iraola been found out? Or will Bournemouth bounce back with a win over Manchester United next week? A few more poor results and the relegation zone might start to look too close for comfort.
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Five Knee-Jerk Reactions to Premier League Matchday 15 Opta Analyst.
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