Today was a bit of a wild ride, with an erroneous initial report that the Chicago Cubs were signing Zac Gallen to a multi-year deal worth $22 million annually, followed by an immediate and firm refutation. Then the original report was withdrawn, and changed to only that the Cubs were hoping to maybe try to sign Gallen. It was weird, given how specific the original report was.
So where do things stand? What’s the real story on the Cubs and Gallen, who reportedly is among the many starting pitcher targets the Cubs are considering?
Well, according to Patrick Mooney, there’s definitely interest there:
The Cubs are targeting free agent Zac Gallen as an option in their wide-ranging search for more pitching. t.co/gVLdFrYCkt
— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) December 6, 2025Gallen is one of many quality starting pitchers out there, so it’s not a surprise to learn that he’s on the Cubs’ radar. And, as Mooney points out, there’s a nice connection there behind the plate, with Gallen having worked a whole lot of games previously with Carson Kelly behind the plate.
I don’t get the sense that Gallen is THE top target for the Cubs, or necessarily that anything is imminent. But the Cubs are pretty clearly interested in Gallen among the many starting pitching options, and with the Winter Meetings starting on Monday, it’s not as if it’d be a surprise for things to move quickly. Keep in mind, there are still a whole lot of options out there in free agency and trade (Tatsuya Imai, Michael King, Ranger Suarez, MacKenzie Gore, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, and more), so not having finalized anything on Zac Gallen today is not a reason to be concerned.
I found this inclusion in Mooney’s post interesting, particularly given that the initial erroneous report from Bob Nightengale mentioned a $22 million AAV:
“In terms of average annual value, possible reference points for Gallen’s next deal include the three-year, $75 million contract Sean Manaea signed with the New York Mets last winter. That offseason also featured Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $63 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels. Gallen is younger than both of those pitchers were when they were free agents, and his resume is more decorated.”
Makes you wonder if those are comps the Cubs have thrown out in talks, while Gallen’s camp is pushing for something higher on his success earlier on in his career? He was certainly a stud for a long time, but I don’t know that you can just toss out a 30-year-old pitcher’s most recent seasons.
More on Gallen from our previous discussion of the Cubs’ interest:
“Before the Cubs had one rotation spot (re-)filled by Shota Imanaga, I really loved the idea of adding Zac Gallen … as a second starting pitcher of the offseason. I had him, in my mind, alongside other lower-floor, higher-ceiling targets like Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty. And that’s because, despite a very impressive track record, Gallen had a really rough walk year that likely cost him a whoooooooole lot of money.
2022: 31 starts, 184.0 IP, 2.54 ERA (4.2 WAR) 2023: 34 starts, 210.0 IP, 3.47 ERA (5.2 WAR) 2024: 28 starts, 148.0 IP, 3.65 ERA (2.8 WAR) 2025: 33 starts, 192.0 IP, 4.83 ERA (1.1 WAR)He’s still young (next season will be his “age-30” campaign), he hasn’t lost velocity, and he had a stronger second-half in 2025 (hold that thought), but still….that’s a rough walk year. Very unfortunate for him. Just imagine how much more he would have been paid if he had hit free agency after 2023 or even 2024. The difference is likely SIGNIFICANT.
But because of that track record and a strong finish in 2025, he bears consideration. I’ll just say that if he is the only guy the Cubs add from here, there’ll be some justifiable concern that they didn’t add the sure-fire, impact starter we’re all hoping they will.
Okay, so what went wrong for Zac Gallen this year? Pretty much everything. Look at his numbers from the four seasons prior to 2025 compared to what he posted last year:
3.41 ERA –> 4.83 ERA 3.41 FIP –> 4.50 FIP 26.1 K% –> 21.5 K% 7.3 BB% –> 8.1 BB% .222 AVG –> .237 AVG 8.2 Barrel% –> 9.7 Barrel% 41.8 hard% –> 43.0 Hard%But there is a catch. And we hinted at it above: His final two months were significantly better than the first four.
His ERA went from 5.60 to 3.32 His FIP went from 4.79 to 3.95 His AVG against went from .252 to .206 His Barrel Rate went from 11.5% to 6.2% His Hard rate went from 46.1% to 36.8% His Groundball rate went from 41.7% to 47.8%In other words, to end the year, Zac Gallen was Zac Gallen again. And it wasn’t a small inning total or entirely scrub opponents, either. In those 11 starts, Gallen completed at least 6.0 full innings nine times. And he did that while facing the Rangers (2x), the Guardians, the Reds, the Dodgers, the Giants (2x), the Phillies, and the Padres.
That’s a pretty convincing run, especially for a guy at his age and with his track record. Hell, the Cubs were willing to give Matthew Boyd a two-year, $29M deal based on just eight starts at the end of 2024. And he was significantly older and without the same recent track record of success.
Interestingly, there isn’t a ton of obvious change in his pitch mix. He threw his four-seamer, cutter, and knuckle curve each a little less while leaning on each of his sinker, slider, and change-up more. But it wasn’t some gigantic divergence in his approach. At least, not that I can tell from the outside. He did pick up a little velocity as the year went on, too, but again, it’s not a dramatic improvement worthy of a “well, this explains it!”
Complicating matters further, the plate discipline data of the batters he faced didn’t really improve dramatically either. Batters offered at approximately the same amount of pitches out of the zone, and actually swung at more pitches in the zone in the second half than the first. And with more contact on pitches in the zone in the first half, his whiff rate even went down. The only modestly notable difference/improvement in those final 11 starts is batters making more contact on pitches out of the zone (which does tend to result in more weak contact).
So maybe with a slightly different pitch mix and a little more velocity, he was setting guys up better? I’m not sure. But I can tell you that his BABIP dropped significantly, from .290 (slightly above his career mark) to .232 (well below). So there was probably some luck baked in there, too.
But again, this is Zac Gallen. I would not be at all surprised if the first half of this season wound up being a fluke/bad stretch. Guys go through that all the time; his was just poorly timed.
Still, unless the Cubs were VERY confident of that fact (or how to fix him), choosing Zac Gallen as your big/primary addition is a risk.
And even though he’ll likely cost significantly less than other options out there …
MLBTR: 4/$80M ($20M) ESPN (McDaniel): 4/$76M ($19M AAV) FanGraphs (Crowdsource): 2/$$44M ($22M AAV) FanGraphs (Clemmens): 2/$36M ($18M AAV) The Athletic (Britton): 2/$$42M ($21M AAV)… he’s still not cheap AND is attached to a Qualifying Offer he rejected, meaning he’d cost the Cubs their second-highest draft pick and $500K in IFA bonus pool space.”
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