Palencia’s Breakout and Future, Valdez’s Big Question, Pitch Shape, and Other Cubs Bullets ...Middle East

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Palencia’s Breakout and Future, Valdez’s Big Question, Pitch Shape, and Other Cubs Bullets

This morning is Santa visit one of two for the weekend. There’s one at the zoo tomorrow, and The Miracle League hosts one today for families with kiddos who played in the league. I think The Littlest Girl is just a little bit excited – any time we mention anything about plans for the week, she goes to the Christmas page on her communication device and just starts spamming every Christmas word she can find.

Good stuff here from Cubs reliever – closer? TBD – Daniel Palencia about how he took a step forward this past season:

Daniel Palencia logged 22 saves and a 2.91 ERA in his breakout 2025 campaign ?The @Cubs closer talks about what clicked, his pitch mix and more. #MLBTonight pic.twitter.com/L4O2gfEWTF

    — MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 5, 2025 His first two responses actually play off of each other, and we saw it all season. First, Palencia suggests he was focused on elevating the fastball, but without trying to be so perfect at the top of the zone. Just make sure it’s up. As we saw, most of the time, even if it’s not perfect, guys cannot handle his fastball above the belt. Second, Palencia says he just developed more confidence, which we know can feed right into pitching with conviction, and better executing. For Palencia, I think about it this way: the more he was able to get his fastball by guys, the more confidence he had in his overall game, which meant the more he was able to just trust that his fastball was going to succeed even without perfect location, which meant more confident, and on and on. “When I throw my fastball with confidence, nobody can hit that.” AND, once everything starts humming with the fastball, it makes the slider play all the better. Can’t have anyone forgetting that Palencia has a nasty slider, even if it’s set up by the fastball execution. Now imagine if he gets a consistent feel for the splitter, too … All that said, the Cubs have to be cognizant of the fact that Palencia is still establishing himself. Last season was the first time he was really able to stick (and pitch reasonably well in a second straight appearance day), and there are probably going to be some more bumps along the way. We have seen it with other young relievers in recent years (Porter Hodge, Adbert Alzolay, Keegan Thompson, Luke Little, Brandon Hughes, Hayden Wesneski, etc.), where they have a breakout, and we immediately start thinking of how they’ll definitely be that same guy the next year. And then … struggles happen. That doesn’t mean it’s a guarantee for Palencia, of course, but the Cubs have to plan their bullpen structure knowing that it might happen again. That is to say, just as the Cubs tried to do last year with Ryan Pressly and Porter Hodge, it might be nice to bring in an established late-inning reliever to pair with Palencia, providing a buffer. Maybe Phil Maton is that guy – he has the stuff for it – but I’d still like another. Gut says the Cubs would, too. I don’t know about this stuff that seems to attempt to erase Framber Valdez’s character questions without directly addressing the incident that’s actually on everyone’s mind:

    Thad Levine, who's been working with Framber Valdez's agent, says Valdez put together a 20-minute video that offers insight into who he is."It really put the person in perspective, and I think for teams that genuinely care about that, it'll probably open their eyes." pic.twitter.com/ACvNN7Az64

    — Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) December 5, 2025

    Inside how MLB teams evaluate player makeup — from top prospects to big-time free agents. With @enosarris – t.co/iRF3qAn2ur

    — Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 4, 2025 For me, it’s still hard to get past the hitting-your-catcher-quite-obviously-on-purpose incident until/unless Valdez is ready to say, “Yes, I did it on purpose, and it was a truly horrible mistake in the heat-of-the-moment. I’ve never done anything like that before, will never again, and I’ll make it right.” It was not a simple “cross-up,” as he’s previously claimed. People make mistakes, and maybe there are no worries about Valdez going forward. But I’ve yet to hear or see him truly take this on in a way that doesn’t treat people like idiots for not believing their own eyes:

    There’s speculation that Astros pitcher Framber Valdez purposely crossed up his catcher Cesar Salazar and hit him with this pitch after Salazar told him to step off before allowing a grand slam pic.twitter.com/ds3c9MzQV6

    — Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) September 3, 2025 I believe this is a small part of why the Cubs are better than many at inducing poor contact, and simultaneously why the pitch evaluation systems rate so many Cubs as having “bad shape” four-seamers:

    Michael King is emblematic of a larger lean among sharp orgs: cut your fastball so we can "seam-shift" you into more plus pitch types.The #Cubs cut their fastballs more than *any* other team in the minors. It's a perfect match.What is "cut" and why is it so prized? pic.twitter.com/ODIHQhK5NY

    — Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) December 5, 2025 Ask hitters if they think Justin Steele’s four-seamer has a bad shape. Related: I miss Justin Steele. Come back 100%, hoss. Interesting note on MacKenzie Gore, among presumably others:

    Execs report a ton of trade talk going on right now, with some front office types saying teams are more open, more willing than in recent years to discuss a range of players. There is a perception in a couple of front offices that the Nats' Mackenzie Gore will definitely be among…

    — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 5, 2025 Wonder if the possible lockout post-2026 is playing a role in teams willing to trade arb-eligible guys like Gore. If Nats keep him, might lose a ton of his value in 2027 if a chunk of the season is lost. So try to trade him now. MORE CUBS FROM BLEACHER NATION: Go Ad Free | Subscribe to the BN Newsletter

    Bears vs. Packers Preview: Caleb Williams Returns to Lambeau With a Chance to Rewrite the Rivalry t.co/fy3wPQ1Ele

    — Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) December 5, 2025

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