Lukewarm Stove: From Williams to Fairbanks, No Cubs Trades Coming? Byron Buxton, More ...Middle East

MLB Rumors — A few days ago, free agent reliever (and rumored Cubs offseason target) Ryan Helsley signed a two-year, $28M deal with the Baltimore Orioles. Last night, Devin Williams followed suit, signing a meaty, three-year, ~$50 million deal with the Mets. We knew Helsley was a Cubs free agent target from various reports across the industry, but I can also tell you that Devil Williams was, too.

I’m not sure if the Cubs were one of the “five other offers from teams with glaring needs at closers,” as reported by Will Sammon at The Athletic, but I can tell you they were talking as of a week ago. So when you consider their needs and purported desire to add impact pitching in the pen as well as the rotation, I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually learn that they did make an offer. That offers little solace now, as he is off the board and neither Edwin Diaz nor Robert Suarez feels like they’ll be in the Cubs’ financial range. But I do think we are likely to see them continue trying in the upper-middle-tier of the relief market.

Whether that’s as “simple” as bringing back Brad Keller or going after a new name like Pete Fairbanks, Kyle Finnegan, Luke Weaver, Tyler Rogers, etc. I’m not sure. But I don’t think they’re done (trying) yet. Not sure how good that should make you feel, though, as the early whiffs are familiarly disheartening.

To that end, our daily trek into the latest MLB Rumors begins with an update on the one free agent reliever they’ve been connected to most, Pete Fairbanks.

Pete Fairbanks

According to Jon Morosi, Pete Fairbanks is drawing interest from (at least) the Blue Jays, Marlins, and Tigers, and he could sign even before the Winter Meetings begin in earnest on Monday.

.@jonmorosi highlights the Blue Jays, Marlins and Tigers as teams in the mix for RHP Pete Fairbanks. pic.twitter.com/FHIx85YOZx

That sentiment, that Fairbanks may be the next guy to go, is shared by Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo at The Athletic, where they also report that the Blue Jays and Marlins are among the teams interested.

Rosenthal also talked about it again today on Foul Territory:

With multiple relievers off the board, who's next?@Ken_Rosenthal expects it to be Pete Fairbanks, who's drawn a ton of interest from teams including the Marlins and Blue Jays. pic.twitter.com/B6rzvTgSK5

To be sure, it’s now been over two weeks since we first learned of the Cubs’ potential interest in Fairbanks from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney at The Athletic. Still, everything we wrote that day generally applies:

Since he settled into the big leagues in 2020, Pete Fairbanks has earned a 2.90 ERA (14th best among all relievers, min. 240 IP). And since becoming the full-time closer in Tampa in 2023, he’s collected 75 saves, 12th most in the Majors. There are some red flags, which I’ll cover in a second, but, yeah … If the Cubs were to sign Pete Fairbanks this offseason, he’d easily be one of the most established, legitimate closers they’ve added from outside the organization in years.

Is that likely? Well, there are a few reasons to believe so.

(1) For one, we do know that the Cubs have a lot of bullpen to rebuild this winter, and you simply can’t do it all the creative way. There’s just too much to work through, and that’s way too much pressure on one of the “established” guys they do have in house, Daniel Palencia.

Palencia earned the closer job this past season, no doubt, but so did Adbert Alzolay (in 2023) and Porter Hodge (in 2024). And the next season didn’t go well for either of them. There’s no connection there between the pitchers, it’s just a reminder that you cannot COUNT on guys with such a small track record of success (and that’s coming from someone who really does love Palencia).

(2) For another, well, the Cubs actually had interest in trading for Fairbanks at the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline, which may have been more circumstantial (he was one of the guys available) than anything else. But it does signal some potential interest in Fairbanks, the pitcher, now that he’s a free agent.

(3) And for a third, it’s fair to recall that the Cubs did try to sign Tanner Scott to a very big free agent deal last offseason, which does point to a potential change in philosophy, at least for Cubs teams that project competitively to Jed Hoyer….

….Now, there are a couple red flags when it comes to Pete Fairbanks. Two years ago, his fastball velocity dropped from its peak around 99.0 MPH in 2022 and 2023 to where he was earlier in his career/now, which is ~97.0 MPH. Still gas, but definitely a noticeable drop.

And with that drop has come a big drop in strikeout rate:

Those are two fundamentally different guys.

But before you freak, it’s fair to point out that he was still very successful after the drop, particularly with respect to staying off the barrel (4.8 barrel% last season, t-22nd best among all relievers last year). His hard-hit rate spiked a bit, but he gets a lot of groundballs and a TON of infield pop-ups, both of which represent exactly the sort of contact you do want to allow if you’re going to allow any. He also throws an above-average slider and just added a very effective cutter last season. So I just don’t have a lot of concern about that.

I hope the Cubs remain interested in Fairbanks, because he may well be the highest upside relief arm (in their presumed financial range) still available on the market. At least, if the recent timeline reporting is accurate, we may not have to wait too long to find out.

No Cubs Trades?

If you are a lurker on X (or in the comment section here at Bleacher Nation), you may have seen some consternation that the Chicago Cubs were not mentioned even once as suitors for any of the top-25 trade candidates according to Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel (… and that was with multiple teams listed for each guy).

It’s especially odd when you consider that more than a handful of the players listed (Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, MacKenzie Gore, Kris Bubic, Edward Cabrera, Mitch Keller, Sandy Alcantara) have been explicitly connected to the Cubs in rumors throughout the offseason (and also at the last trade deadline).

Ultimately, I think it’s just an oversight. The only teams not mentioned on this list? The Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, White Sox, and Nationals.

That is five clear sellers/rebuilders … plus the Blue Jays (baseball’s most aggressive team so far) and the Cubs (a contender and frequent mention in trade rumors EVERYWHERE). It just doesn’t make sense not to list them as a potential option for some of those players, and I don’t think you need to worry about it.

Byron Buxton Will Waive No-Trade

One guy who is mentioned on this list is an atypical Cubs trade target, but one I do hope they seriously consider: Byron Buxton.

There were some early rumblings of his potential availability back in early November, but at the time, some wondered if he’d waive his no-trade clause for ONLY his hometown Braves. Now? According to Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel, that field has reportedly expanded: “Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause — and not just for Atlanta (he’s a Georgia native) — which puts the Twins in an interesting position.”

They still put a trade likelihood at just 35%, but this is a material change in what we thought was possible. And as I’ve written previously, I do really like the idea of grabbing Buxton, even knowing his injury history.

Ken Rosenthal touched on the possibility of trading Buxton, too:

Byron Buxton would be open to getting traded if the Twins continue to move their headliners, per @DanHayesMLB."It just all depends on the direction that they take, and that direction is not yet clear," says @Ken_Rosenthal. pic.twitter.com/TV0lFOxs31

Here’s what we discussed the last time Buxton’s name came up:

The Twins have been waiting YEARS for Byron Buxton to be as healthy as he was in 2025. So it figures they’d start to consider trading him immediately after he posted his healthiest (126 games, 542 PAs) and most productive season on record (136 wRC+, 35 HRs, 24 SBs, 5.0 WAR). But here we are.

The Twins, you may recall, began a significant roster teardown this past deadline and figure to continue breaking apart their team this offseason. We’ve got our eyes on starters Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. But according to Dan Hayes (The Athletic), Buxton could be on the move, too.

Buxton is a center fielder by trade, but he’s not Pete Crow-Armstrong, so he’d have to fit into left or right field if the Cubs were going to make it work (though he does DESTROY left-handed pitching, so maybe he could also spell Ian Happ or PCA for certain matchups). In any case, maybe a corner spot would be easier on his body and help keep him on the field more often throughout the year (he could also DH, with Suzuki playing right, as needed). We do know the Cubs (under Jed Hoyer) like to field a defensively sound team, and Buxton in right field would be an upgrade for the Cubs.

Good luck agreeing on a value with the Twins, though. Buxton isn’t making too much money and is coming off a career year, but he’s one of the most famously injury-prone players in the game and is entering his age-32 season. I’m just not sure how you agree on what that should cost to acquire.

I won’t stop you from dreaming on some sort of combined package for Buxton and Lopez/Ryan. It’s probably not going to happen, but boy would that be a fun way to re-insert some offensive upside into this lineup.

Other MLB Rumors

The Giants are among the teams that have checked in on Kyle Schwarber, as I just reported on @MLBNetwork.

Ope, Actually, Maybe Willson Contreras Hates St. Louis t.co/mPbevvkwKr pic.twitter.com/L1bNmf1wzS

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