The Derby della Madonnina takes centre-stage in Serie A this weekend. We look ahead to Sunday’s game with our Inter vs Milan prediction and preview.
Inter vs Milan Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer is siding with Internazionale ahead of Sunday’s derby, giving the Nerazzurri a 47.8% chance of beating AC Milan. Milan went unbeaten in five derbies against Inter last season in all competitions, having previously lost six in a row. The Rossoneri have not recorded a longer unbeaten run against their rivals since April 2005 (10 games). Lautaro Martínez has scored nine goals in 20 appearances against Milan in all competitions and could become just the seventh player to reach double figures in the Derby della Madonnina.Serie A returns after the international break this weekend, and both Milan clubs are threatening to push for Napoli’s Scudetto after positive starts to the campaign.
Internazionale, in their first campaign under Cristian Chivu, went into the break top of the table with 24 points from 11 matches, only ahead of Roma on goal difference.
And their rivals AC Milan trail them by just two points ahead of Sunday’s head-to-head matchup at San Siro, with Massimiliano Allegri’s return to the Rossoneri dugout proceeding serenely thus far.
Inter signed off for the international break with a 2-0 victory over Lazio, their fourth successive win in all competitions. Chivu’s team have won 11 of their last 12 matches in all competitions, the only exception coming in a 3-1 defeat to title rivals Napoli at the end of October.
During that run, Inter have scored 28 goals (2.3 per game) and conceded just seven (0.6 per game), while they are also one of only two clubs – along with Roma – yet to draw this season across the big five European leagues. Their last stalemate was against Monterrey in the FIFA Club World Cup on 18 June.
Lautaro Martínez joined Ange-Yoan Bonny on the scoresheet against Lazio, with the Argentina international reaching 10 Serie A goals for Inter in 2025. He is only the fourth player in Inter’s history to have reached double figures for goals in seven different calendar years, after Alessandro Altobelli (seven), Benito Lorenzi, and Giuseppe Meazza (both eight).
Martínez has not been at his best for much of the year, but he has now scored in back-to-back games across all competitions for the first time since last October, when he netted in three straight matches.
But the Derby della Madonnina tends to bring out the best in Martínez, who has scored nine goals in 20 appearances against Milan in all competitions.
He could become just the seventh player to reach double figures in this fixture, for either side. Andriy Shevchenko (14), Giuseppe Meazza (13), Gunnar Nordahl, Stefano Nyers (both 11), Zlatan Ibrahimović and Enrico Candiani (both 10) have previously done so, with only Meazza (12) and Nyers (11) netting more for Inter against the Rossoneri.
Milan had the upper hand in this fixture last season, going unbeaten in five meetings with the Nerazzurri in Serie A, the Coppa Italia and the Supercoppa Italiana (three wins, two draws). Before this run started, they had lost six successive derbies.
The Rossoneri have not recorded a longer unbeaten run against their city rivals since enjoying a 10-match streak between November 2002 and April 2005.
Milan have steadily built momentum since Allegri’s return to the club, going unbeaten in 11 games since losing to Cremonese in August (seven wins, four draws). This is their longest unbeaten run since going 13 without losing between April and September 2022, a run that included them winning the Scudetto under Stefano Pioli.
Though Milan, will, of course, be playing in familiar surroundings at San Siro, they are classed as the away side for Sunday’s match. The Rossoneri have drawn each of their last three Serie A away games (against Juventus, Atalanta and Parma), and have only recorded a run of four consecutive away draws in the competition once before in the three-points-for-a-win era, doing so between April and May 2017 under Vincenzo Montella.
Rafael Leão will be their main outlet in attack, and he has been involved in seven goals for Milan against Inter in 20 matches in all competitions (three goals and four assists), only registering more against Lazio and Roma (eight apiece) in his Rossoneri career.
The Portuguese forward could be involved in a goal in consecutive matches against Inter for the first time, having provided the assist for Tijjani Reijnders’ strike in the teams’ most recent meeting, the second leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final tie on April 23.
Internazionale vs Milan Head-to-Head
Inter have struggled in their recent meetings with Milan, and their overall record against Italy’s finest recently leaves plenty to be desired.
The Nerazzurri have failed to win any of their 11 matches in all competitions against Milan, Juventus and Napoli since beating Milan in April 2024 (five draws, six losses), losing their last three meetings 3-0 in the Coppa Italia, 4-3 in Serie A and 3-1 in Serie A.
Milan have also won their last two ‘away’ derbies against Inter in all competitions (2-1 in Serie A in September 2024 and 3-0 in the Coppa Italia in April 2024), as many victories as in their previous 16 such derbies (two wins, three draws, 11 defeats).
They could now win three consecutive away games against Inter for the first time since the period between October 2003 and April 2005, which included a 3-0 win by default in the second leg of the 2004-05 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals.
Internazionale vs Milan Prediction
Despite their recent derby struggles, Inter are favourites for victory with the Opta supercomputer, coming out on top in 47.8% of pre-match simulations.
Milan are assigned a 26.2% chance of victory, with 26% of projections being drawn.
In the Opta supercomputer’s Serie A season predictions, Inter are favoured for the title in 57.8% of projections, with Milan only assigned a 10.8% probability. Roma (14.1%) are second and favourites for the Italian top-flight title.
Internazionale vs Milan Predicted Lineups
Internazionale: Yann Sommer, Manuel Akanji, Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, Carlos Augusto, Nicolò Barella, Hakan Çalhanoglu, Petar Sucic, Federico Dimarco, Marcus Thuram, Lautaro Martínez.
Head coach: Cristian Chivu.
AC Milan: Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlovic, Alexis Saelemaekers, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupiñán, Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leão.
Head coach: Massimiliano Allegri.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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