Ireland have won the last three meetings against South Africa in Dublin, but the world champions arrive with momentum. Find out which way this contest might go with our Ireland vs South Africa prediction and preview.
Ireland vs South Africa was always one of the standout fixtures of the Quilter Nations Series. A contest between two heavyweights who entered the autumn as the highest-ranked teams in their respective hemispheres.
Ireland’s stock has dipped slightly after a stop-start run of games in which they have struggled to reach top gear. South Africa, meanwhile, have thrived in adversity, and overcome numerical disadvantages to keep their winning machine rolling.
At the Aviva Stadium, Ireland have enjoyed recent success against the Springboks, winning the last three meetings in Dublin. However, the most recent of those came in 2022, when Ireland were the No. 1 side in the world. Since then, South Africa have added a record fourth Rugby World Cup to their legacy.
Where the Game Could Be Won
Few teams mirror each other’s style as closely as these two in top-tier men’s international rugby at the moment. Both take massive pride in carrying hard, exemplified by the fact that they have the two highest dominant carry rates of any Tier 1 sides in 2025 (South Africa 39%, Ireland 38%).
Their try-scoring profiles are similarly close. Ireland (5.0) and South Africa (5.5) are the only Tier 1 sides to average 5+ tries per game this year, while also conceding the fewest (Ireland 2.4, South Africa 2.3).
Another shared trait is their kicking strategy, using it as a weapon to retain possession and progress down the pitch, rather than a simple one-dimensional territorial tactic. South Africa (28%) and Ireland (21%) have recovered a higher share of their own kicks in play than any other Tier 1 nation in 2025, and they are two of only three teams averaging 30+ open-play kicks per match.
While their similarities are striking, South Africa have edged Ireland in every one of these key areas. If the Boks can maintain their accuracy in these departments, it could be hard for Ireland to get a firm foothold in this match.
Players to Watch
It was Canberra-born Mack Hansen who stole the headlines after Ireland’s ruthless win over Australia last weekend, but our focus here shifts to the engine room behind that victory. Ryan Baird grabbed a try, but it was his defensive efforts that truly stood out.
Remarkably, Ireland’s starting pack did not miss a single tackle against the Wallabies, completing all 79 attempts. Baird finished with 14 from 14, second only to Caelan Doris (15).
Baird was also a real menace at the lineout, stealing three Australian throws. Across his last five appearances, Baird has nine lineout steals – almost one per half (41 minutes) – the most by any Tier 1 player in 2025.
For South Africa, we have picked one of their three nominees for World Rugby’s Player of the Year award, Malcolm Marx. When Ireland toured South Africa in 2024 he came off the bench in both Tests, and eight of his next nine appearances also saw him deployed as an impact option. Since then, however, he has made 10 consecutive starts, increasing his average minutes from 38 to 63.
In 2025 he has scored five tries and won six jackal turnovers – no Tier 1 hooker has matched that output (Dan Sheehan also has five tries). At the lineout he arrives off a flawless performance against France, landing all 14 throws. Only once in his Test career has he topped that, landing 17 from 17 against Argentina way back in 2017.
Ireland vs South Africa Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has South Africa as clear favourites at 68.5%, with Ireland given 31.0% and the draw just 0.5%. The model projects a 31–19 victory for the Springboks.
Can Andy Farrell’s men build on their win over Australia and spring a surprise in Dublin? Or will the world champions complete a clean sweep?
Ireland vs South Africa Lineups
Ireland XV: 15 Mack Hansen, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park; 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 James Ryan, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 6 Ryan Baird, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Caelan Doris (C).
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Cian Prendergast, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Tom Farrell.
South Africa XV: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach; 1 Boan Venter, 2 Malcolm Marx, 3 Thomas du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Ruan Nortje, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Jasper Wiese.
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Andre Esterhuizen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok.
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Ireland vs South Africa Prediction: Can Farrell’s Side Stop a Springbok Clean Sweep? Opta Analyst.
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