Donald Trump could force Ukraine into concessions in a peace deal with Russia, as he looks to shore up his domestic agenda after a string of embarrassing setbacks, experts told The i Paper.
Senior Pentagon officials arrived in Ukraine on Wednesday to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky, amid reports that US and Russian officials had prepared a new framework peace plan that would require significant concessions from Kyiv.
It is understood that the 28-point plan would require Ukraine to give up territory it still controls, including the whole Donbas region, and scale back its military including by give up its critical stockpile of US weapons.
While the White House is yet to comment, Reuters reports that Washington is pushing for Kyiv to accept the main parts of the deal, which would represent a major setback as it faces further Russian gains in eastern Ukraine.
The move comes as Trump faces a series of challenges at home, with Congress voting to release all files relating to the criminal investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, which Trump spent months fighting, before eventually U-turning over the weekend.
It also comes against a backdrop of embarrassing election defeats, sinking poll numbers and economic woes. The President is dealing with a fracturing of his base, with figures within the Maga movement criticising him for, among other things, abandoning his “America First” principles by embroiling to US in foreign conflicts.
Katia Glod, deputy head of foreign policy at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre, told The i Paper that Trump’s domestic troubles put him in a weaker negotiating position when it comes to Russia, which Vladimir Putin will seek to exploit by pushing for a capitulation.
“The dynamic reduces Trump’s leverage compared to a “normal” negotiating posture where he could wait… and build more sanctions, or demand stronger terms,” she said. “Putin is, of course, aware of this.”
She added: “Washington – due to domestic pressures or whatever else – seems now to be negotiating from a position of weakness, it is not shaping the agenda but reacting to Russia’s demands.”
Neil Melvin, director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think-tank in London, told The i Paper that Trump’s failure to secure a peace deal in Ukraine was “putting him in a difficult domestic political position”.
Melvin said that “President Trump has publicly profiled himself as a peacemaker and is set on limiting the involvement of the US in costly security commitments abroad… despite his claims, he seems unable to end the conflict as he has repeatedly promised”.
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“He is now anxious for a win to demonstrate momentum in his international agenda as he is facing stronger domestic economic and political headwinds,” Melvin added. “The risk is that in pursuit of a deal that the President can claim as a peace agreement, he will end up enforcing Russian subjugation on Ukraine. Such a development would inevitably produce a major transatlantic rupture.”
The EU has already pushed back against reports of the proposed peace plan, with the bloc’s top diplomat saying that plan to end the war would need the support of Ukrainians and Europe to work.
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