PERTH — After months of anticipation and pre-series barbs, the Ashes finally get underway in Perth in the early hours of Friday morning.
England’s record over their last three tours of Australia is awful, with 13 defeats and two draws across the 15 Tests since they sealed a memorable 3-1 series win in Sydney back in January 2011.
Few teams win Test series away from home these days. Fewer win Ashes series, with England having achieved the feat just twice in the past 38 years and Australia failing to do so since 2001.
This time, though, feels different. This England team have promised to take the fight to Australia and with the hosts missing two of their famed pace triumvirate in captain Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood for Perth, this first Test presents a huge opportunity for Ben Stokes’ men.
Both teams will be mindful of the fact that in the five previous Tests at Optus Stadium, the side winning the toss has batted first and won, most recently India last year.
History awaits England’s squad Down Under (Photo: Getty)Despite Australia’s injury woes, the odds are still stacked against an England team who have failed to beat either Australia or India across three previous series since the Bazball era began in 2022.
Yet what will decide whether England can turn the tide of history and regain the urn after a decade-long wait?
The fitness of Ben Stokes
It seems pretty simple. If Stokes plays all five Tests, England will win the series. Since missing the last Test of the summer against India at The Oval with a torn shoulder muscle, the 34-year-old looks as fit as ever on this trip.
Last summer his bowling was as good as it’s been for a decade, Stokes taking 17 wickets in four Tests.
For England’s sake, Stokes will hope the left knee holds up too, having last addressed this long-standing problem with surgery in November 2023.
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Read More Joe Root’s form
Since the end of the 2024 summer, Root has scored 1,141 runs and five centuries, taking him to second on the all-time list of runscorers behind only India great Sachin Tendulkar.
Australians have reminded him ever since then that he’s yet to score an Ashes hundred Down Under. But if he continues his good form it will lay the foundations for a successful series for England. The rest of the top six, especially Harry Brook, may well also have a significant say in this series. But it’s Root’s runs that are likely to prove the difference.
England’s rotation of fast bowlers
Having Jofra Archer and Mark Wood fit for the first Test is massive for England. Keeping them both fit is another matter. The whole fast-bowling group will have to share the load across the five Tests.
But if Wood and Archer can play three each, the tourists have every chance of winning the series.
The durability of Australia’s dad’s army
Australia are old. Mitchell Starc, the last of the remaining fit first-choice fast bowlers is 35. Scott Boland, who plays in Perth, is 36. Even debutants Brendan Doggett and Jake Weatherald are 31. Opener Usman Khawaja meanwhile turns 39 during the series.
Of the Aussie squad, only all-rounder Cameron Green is under 30. Do this grizzled but champion team have one last hurrah in them? Logic says yes but the fact Cummins and Hazlewood are already injured before a ball has been bowled suggests the hosts may be fighting a losing battle.
Mitchell Starc will likely be Australia’s biggest threat with the ball during this series (Photo: Getty)Will the Aussie debutants actually be any good?
Opener Weatherald averages 37 in first-class cricket. Doggett 26 with the ball. Both may turn out to be solid performers. But the chances are England can expose and break at least one of them across the first few Tests.
Taming Steve Smith
The stand-in captain averages 56.01 with the bat in Ashes cricket, with 12 centuries. But across the last two series, in 2021-22 and 2023, that has dropped to 33.5.
Apparently now more chilled than previously, put down to his relocation to New York, Smith is still a danger. If England can tame him, they will probably win the series.
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England’s spin conundrum
Shoiab Bashir, Will Jacks or no-one? Good question. England, unlike Australia, who have the luxury of Nathan Lyon, do not have a world-class spinner. It really could cost them.
Bazball’s grace under fire
Have England learned? Despite all the talk of refining Bazball, they lost the final Test of the summer against India at The Oval after a collapse of seven for 66 saw them blow a chase of 374 by six runs.
They will need to be smart and pick their moments to attack Australia. But if they can be ruthless when it counts, they have every chance of bringing the urn home.
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