Read our Ashes first Test preview and prediction as England face Australia in Perth. Can Ben Stokes’ side end their long winless run Down Under and start the series strong?
It is 10 years since England last lifted the Ashes urn and almost 15 since they last won a series – or even a Test – in Australia. This latest instalment of one of sport’s oldest and fiercest rivalries offers the tourists a genuine chance to halt that run.
But nothing ever comes easily Down Under.
Two of the last three Ashes series have been drawn, underlining how evenly matched these sides currently are. Before that, the last drawn series came all the way back in 1972.
In Australia, however, it has been almost relentless disappointment for England. Since winning the final Test of the 2010-11 series, they have failed to win a single Test away from home in the Ashes – losing 13 and drawing two.
Perth Pain: A New Venue, But Similar Results?
Traditionally, the first Test of an Ashes series has been played at the Gabba in Brisbane. The last time the opener was staged elsewhere was in 1982-83, when the old W.A.C.A. in Perth hosted the first Test.
Forty-three years later, Perth is back in the spotlight, this time at the newer, imposing Perth Stadium.
England’s record in the city is one to forget. Across 13 Ashes Tests in Perth, they have won just once, a 166-run victory in 1978. They followed that with draws in 1982 and 1986, but have since lost eight straight, including a heavy defeat by an innings and 41 runs in 2017.
England’s Struggles in Ashes Openers
No matter the sides competing, the first Test of any bi-lateral series is always critical in setting the tone and asserting psychological dominance. England have struggled to do that in recent Ashes history. Across the 13 Ashes series played this century, they have won the first Test only twice, at Trent Bridge in 2013 and in Cardiff in 2015.
The picture is even starker in Australia. England have not won an opening Ashes Test away from home since 1986, a game at the Gabba where Ian Botham was Player of the Match after scoring a century and taking three wickets.
Batters Under the Spotlight
Much of the pre-series conversation has centred on Joe Root’s difficulties in Australia, where he has never scored a Test century. His record in Perth suggests the drought is unlikely to end in the opener. Across four innings at the W.A.C.A., he has never passed 20 (scores of 4, 19, 20 and 14), and his average there (14.3) is his lowest at any ground where he has played more than once. He will hope the modern Perth Stadium offers a fresh start.
At the new stadium, Marnus Labuschagne is the top run scorer in Test cricket, with 524 runs across eight innings at an average of 74.9. That record includes two centuries and a double century. However, his recent form there has dipped sharply; his last four scores in Perth read 16, 2, 2 and 3, with three LBW dismissals.
This lack of form is somewhat reflective of Labuschagne’s dip in Test cricket generally. His most recent century came in July 2023 – against England at Old Trafford – and his last ton on Australian soil was in Adelaide in 2022 against the West Indies.
The Battle of the Bowlers
As for the bowlers, Australia’s injury concerns have dominated the build-up. An ageing attack appears to be creaking at the seams. Josh Hazlewood looks to have passed a late fitness test, but fellow New South Wales quick Sean Abbott has been ruled out.
Abbott was unlikely to feature, but with captain Pat Cummins also in rehab room, Australia’s selectors would have welcomed greater depth. As things stand, Hazlewood is set to lead the seam attack alongside Scott Boland and Mitchell Starc.
Starc has an excellent record at Perth Stadium, where his 26 wickets are bettered only by Nathan Lyon’s 29.
For England, Ben Stokes is the only member of this squad to have taken a Test wicket in Perth, having removed Brad Haddin, Michael Clarke and Steven Smith during the 2013 match at the W.A.C.A.
Ashes 2025: First Test Prediction
This Ashes series is one of the hardest to predict in years with question marks on both sides’ form and fitness. But based on the historical challenges of winning Down Under, especially in Perth, we think the home side will prevail in this opener.
With neither bowling unit at full strength, we predict a high-scoring game with Marnus Labuschagne top-scoring in what would be a concerning return to form for the Barmy Army.
Australia vs England Squads:
Australia: Steve Smith (captain), Sean Abbott, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Starc, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster.l.
England: Ben Stokes (captain), Harry Brook (vice-captain), Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts, Joe Root, Jamie Smith, Josh Tongue, Mark Wood.
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