More than 22 million people, including millions of children, could die by 2030 if the United States and European countries continue to reduce foreign aid, according to a new international study.
The study, conducted by researchers from Spain, Brazil, and Mozambique and reported by AFP, warns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s cuts to foreign aid—including the elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)—could alone cause 14 million deaths. Additional reductions from the UK, France, and Germany would increase the toll further.
The research draws on historical data showing that aid programs have significantly lowered mortality rates, particularly through efforts to combat HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis.
Worst-Case Scenario
Under a scenario of deep budget cuts, the study projects an additional 22.6 million deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five, compared with a scenario where aid levels remain unchanged. Even moderate reductions could result in 9.4 million more deaths.
Gonzalo Fanjul of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) said, “This is the first time in 30 years that France, Germany, the UK, and the United States have all reduced aid simultaneously.” He added that while European countries cannot match the U.S. individually, together they have dealt an unprecedented blow to the global aid system.
The study also warns that these cuts could undermine decades of international cooperation and jeopardize critical health programs. Fanjul emphasized the importance of reducing countries’ reliance on foreign aid, especially for HIV prevention programs.
David Rasella, lead author of the study, said, “Development aid may not be massive globally, but policymakers adjust budgets without fully grasping the human cost.”
Political Motives Behind the Cuts
Soon after taking office, President Trump slashed U.S. foreign aid by more than 80% and dissolved USAID, which distributed roughly $35 billion in the previous fiscal year. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the move, saying aid “does not serve the United States’ core interests,” noting that some recipient countries had voted against the U.S. at the UN.
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