What is Arizona State football’s path to Big 12 title game? ...Middle East

Arizona State football kept its Big 12 title game aspirations alive on Saturday with a win over West Virginia, as the program enters the final two weeks on the schedule with an outside chance to repeat at conference champs.

The Sun Devils are going to have to win their final two games over Colorado and Arizona for a realistic shot at returning to AT&T Stadium, where they defeated Iowa State to claim the Big 12 trophy last year.

The Big 12 champion will go the College Football Playoff.

With two weeks left, here are the contenders (percentage from PlayoffStatus.com):

Texas Tech (7-1, 93%) BYU (6-1, 80%) Houston (5-2, 2%) Utah (5-2, 8%) Arizona State (5-2, 12%) Cincinnati (5-2, 5%)

Arizona and Kansas State are mathematically alive at 4-3 but have less than 1% chance.

The end of the 2024 season in the Big 12 was chaotic, but this year could top that. It is possible that this season could end with a six-way tie atop the conference — which might actually work out for ASU, according to multiple projection systems.

Let’s go through it.

6-way tie for first at 7-2 still in play in the Big 12. pic.twitter.com/4UuMmeDTIJ

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) November 16, 2025

Big 12 tiebreakers

The tiebreakers for a two-way tie are:

For a three-or-more-way tie:

ASU football’s final 2 games

So, there are a lot of moving pieces that would have to be involved for ASU, which still has to win a couple more games with an injury-impacted roster that won’t have quarterback Sam Leavitt or safety Xavion Alford the rest of the way. Star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is working back from injury and is a question mark for CU.

Colorado has had a tough season (1-6 in conference), but that will be an evening game in cold weather to give ASU a different environment. Arizona, meanwhile, has won three straight games after a couple one-score losses to BYU and Houston. The Wildcats received AP Top 25 poll votes along with ASU this week, although their 4-3 conference record does not lay out a reasonable path to the title game. That sets up a potential make-or-break Territorial Cup meeting in Tempe for ASU, adding even more weight to the rivalry game.

That is set for Black Friday, so there will be scoreboard watching the next day.

ASU football’s path to Big 12 championship game

The Sun Devils defeated Texas Tech earlier this season but lost to both Utah and Houston.

If ASU can win out, the non-negotiable that has to happen is either Texas Tech or BYU has to lose a game.

The Red Raiders only have one game left, a road matchup with West Virginia after a bye week. West Virginia has been friskier lately with wins over Houston and Colorado and tight losses to ASU and TCU, but that’s a game Texas Tech should be expected to take.

BYU has a critical road game at Cincinnati on Saturday, which looks like the best shot ASU has at seeing one of the top two teams go down. After that, the Cougars host a UCF team that has one conference win this season.

There are so many scenarios that can play out over two weeks of games, but for those wondering what to root for, here are a few possibilities that would get ASU in if it wins out:

Scenario 1:

Even if BYU and Houston both win out, ASU would advance via the second tiebreaker over Texas Tech and Houston. A date with the Cougars would be scheduled.

Scenario 2:

This one seems most plausible, especially since BYU has to play in Cincinnati. Even if Houston wins out, ASU would advance, as that West Virginia loss haunts Houston. This would result in a four-way tie, and ASU has the advantage with the second tiebreaker. The Sun Devils would face Texas Tech.

Scenario 3:

ASU cannot have a three-way tie with BYU and Cincinnati due to common opponents record, but a four-way tie with Houston involved pushes the Sun Devils in. They would face Texas Tech for the title.

Scenario 4:

That’s right, ASU can still advance even if Utah, Houston and Cincinnati all win out here.

If there is a six-way tie atop the standings, ASU gets in if Iowa State wins out. Why? Because of the fourth tiebreaker. ASU would play Utah. However, if Iowa State loses to Kansas or Oklahoma State, ASU would miss the title game.

That’s how complicated this whole thing is, and none of this matters if ASU does not take care of its own business.

But there will be a lot to keep tabs on over the final two weeks of this college football regular season.

The Sun Devils made the title game with two conference losses last year, as the top of the standings were a cluster. They needed some breaks down the stretch, but the most important factor was that they won their last five games of the regular season. That season ended in a four-way tie between ASU, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado, and the tiebreakers favored the Sun Devils and Cyclones.

Relevant Big 12 schedule (times in MST)

Saturday, Nov. 22

Friday, Nov. 28

Saturday, Nov. 29

Follow @alexjweiner

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