Grocery carts are filling up faster than usual this November as Americans head into the holiday season—but it’s because a shortage has people in a panic for the upcoming Thanksgiving 2025 holiday.
The U.S. turkey flock has shrunk to levels not seen in four decades, sending wholesale prices sharply higher and leaving shoppers nervously checking store shelves and planning backups for Thanksgiving dinner.
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What’s Happening
A trio of poultry problems this year: a resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), outbreaks of avian metapneumovirus (AMPV) that have depressed egg production used to hatch replacement poults, and producers shifting production away from turkeys, have all combined to cut turkey production.
Industry reporting and farm-group analysis put the 2025 turkey flock at roughly 195 million birds, about 3% below 2024, and the smallest total in around 40 years. That smaller flock is the main reason experts say supplies are tight heading into Thanksgiving.
View this post on Instagram"There are 5 million fewer turkeys raised in the U.S. this year compared with 2024, making it a 40 year low, according to Purdue University," per WTOP News. "The wholesale price of a turkey this year is up a staggering 75% compared with last year, averaging about $1.71 per pound."
That’s wholesale (what stores pay to buy in bulk), and while some retailers will absorb or mask those increases with promotions, the market pressure is real and explains why shoppers are seeing higher price tags this season.
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Panic Ensues
In the comments section of a WTOP News Instagram post, people expressed concern about the main dish shortage.
"No Thanksgiving this year," one wrote, while another lamented, "We stopped thanks giving thanks to trump. We have to save money for regular meals not this screwed up honor country."
Others also pointed the finger at President Donald Trump's economy, adding things like, "But Trump said prices are down. (sarcasm)," "Trump did all of this," "Thanks Donald," and "Thanks [t]o Trump everything is more expensive! All our money ? is going to his big airplane ✈️."
"WoW... Whole Chicken it shall be," someone else surmised.
On the other hand, some insisted the news was "bull crap," citing that they'd found the hefty birds in store at prices relatively "cheaper" than in previous years: "Bull crap. .59 a lb right now. Come on …"
"I just bought one at a local supermarket in Massachusetts for 59 cents a pound," another corroborated of a regional find, with a third adding, "Big lie! Walmart, Safeway, and others have them cheaper than any other years."
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