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Major League Baseball teams have long leaned on hiring Ivy League graduates to fill executive positions that figure out difficult scenarios.
With the Ivy League joining the FCS playoffs for the first time this season, maybe the Moneyball guys can come over in their offseason to help decipher all the analytics, probabilities and wackiness surrounding FCS postseason contenders.
No wait, they’ll probably find a way to get four or five Ivy teams into the 24-team playoff field come Selection Sunday, Nov. 23. That will only make it harder on everyone else.
But take a deep breath and wipe the sweat off your brow, some postseason bids figure to be earned and other bubbles burst during Week 12 of a season that’s already had a wild month of November football.
Let’s span FCS nation prior to the penultimate schedule of games.
FCS Football Week 12 Preview & Predictions
FCS Game of the Week
No. 9 UC Davis (7-2, 5-1) at No. 3 Montana State (8-2, 6-0)
Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2) at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman, Montana
Series: Montana State leads 8-1 (last meeting: Montana State won 30-28 at UC Davis on Nov. 16, 2024)
Notable: UC Davis’ win in the series occurred in the first matchup in 2006. Montana State’s plus-229 point differential in conference games – 294 points scored against 65 allowed – is by far the largest in the FCS. The Bobcats, who share first place with No. 2 Montana and have won 40 of their last 42 home games, rank fifth in the FCS with 232.8 rushing yards per game, but it jumps to 253.6 on average against FCS opponents, with running backs Julius Davis (709 yards, six TDs) and Adam Jones (593, nine) leading the way this season. Quarterback Justin Lambson has 26 combined TD passes and runs against just three turnovers. The ‘Cats have allowed 21 sacks, however, and have to deal with UC Davis defensive end Jacob Psyk, the Harvard transfer who leads the Big Sky in tackles for loss (13.5) and sacks (7.5). The Aggies, who are third in the conference standings with the loss against Idaho State, have committed six turnovers in their last three games after having just five in their first six games. Caden Pinnick is second among FCS freshman QBs in passing yards (1,987), TD passes (20) and passing efficiency (176.5). Wide receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr. has been above 100 receiving yards in four straight and five of the team’s six Big Sky games.
The Pick: Montana State
Second-and-10
1. In a Top 25 matchup, No. 15 Stephen F. Austin (8-2, 6-0) will claim the Southland’s automatic bid to the FCS playoffs if they extend their first eight-game winning streak since 1989 against No. 19 Lamar (8-2, 5-1). It’s easy to think offense with SFA’s Big 3 of QB Sam Vidlak, RB Jerrell Wimbley and WR Kylon Harris, but the Lumberjacks rank No. 2 nationally in average yards (247.9) and rushing yards (65.5) allowed per game, and are just one TFL behind Tennessee Tech for the FCS high with 89. Defensive end Ky Thomas and linebacker Jaydon Southard lead with 10.0 and 9.5, respectively.
2. Central Connecticut State (7-3, 5-0) will clinch the NEC automatic bid to the FCS playoffs with a win at Duquesne (3-2), but even with a loss, coach Adam Lechtenberg’s squad would still be in the driver’s seat heading into its Nov. 22 game. The Blue Devils forced eight turnovers in last year’s 21-14 win over Duquesne, including cornerback Christopher Jean with three interceptions. He’ll surely be assigned to Dukes WR Joey Isbella, who had a TD catch against 15 straight non-FBS opponents before going without one against LIU last Saturday.
3. Five Top 10 teams remain unbeaten going into their final two regular-season games: No. 1 North Dakota State (10-0), No. 2 Montana (10-0), No. 4 Lehigh (10-0), No. 5 Tennessee Tech (10-0; playing FBS Kentucky this week) and No. 7 Harvard (8-0). The last time there were two unbeatens at the end of the regular season was 2022 (Holy Cross and Sacramento State). The last time there were three unbeatens at the end of the regular season was 2007 (McNeese, Montana and Northern Iowa).
4. The Missouri Valley Football Conference could possibly match the single-season record with six playoff bids, something only it and CAA Football have accomplished previously. The Valley has seven nationally ranked candidates, but two are slumping and finishing against teams ranked above them. Southern Illinois (6-4) is in the worse spot with a sub-FCS win that doesn’t count on its resume, and surely need to beat both No. 17 South Dakota and No. 14 Illinois State. Meanwhile, No. 16 South Dakota State (7-3) hosts Illinois State before traveling to No. 13 North Dakota, likely needing just one win to claim an at-large bid.
5. Among 13 FCS conferences, the Pioneer Football League has the most teams within one game of first place with five. Drake (6-3, 5-1) held on to the top spot despite a loss to St. Thomas last week because Presbyterian was stunned by Davidson. Drake has won its last 13 road league matchups as it heads to Dayton, which joins Presbyterian and San Diego at 4-2 each, while St. Thomas is 5-2. The week’s other big game is Presbyterian at St. Thomas – two teams hoping to claim an FCS playoff bid for the first time.
6. Sacred Heart is 7-3 and guaranteed of a winning season under veteran coach Mark Nofri as the Pioneers head toward joining the CAA next year. It includes a victory over Delaware State and credible losses to Lehigh, Montana and Central Connecticut State. Mitchell Summers leads FCS freshmen in rushing yards (895) and is tied for the high in TDs (10) heading into season-ending matchups against Merrimack, which the Pioneers are leaving behind in FCS independence, and Villanova.
7. Better later than never. The FCS leader in passing yards, Mercer’s Braden Atkinson (2,917), didn’t debut until what was supposed to the Bears’ third game (the Week 0 game against UC Davis was canceled in the fourth quarter by inclement weather) and No. 3 Taron Dickens (2,752) missed Western Carolina’s first three games. South Dakota’s L.J. Phillips Jr. is No. 3 in rushing yards (1,464) despite not getting his first start until the Coyotes’ third game (he only had 73 yards through two games). Penn’s Jared Richardson leads the FCS in receptions per game (7.3) and receiving yards per game (107.4) and is tied for seventh in receiving yards (859) despite the Ivy League’s later start to competition.
8. Whoever references Maine as Quarterback U would be a first. But he or she might be correct. Prior to Mercer transfer Carter Peevy (33 TD passes to 10 interceptions) taking over the last two seasons, the Black Bears had four seasons with either Derek Robertson, who at Monmouth the last two seasons has the most passing yards and TD passes in the FCS, and Joe Fagnano, who at UConn this season has thrown 25 TDs passes without an interception, and that breakdown is 45 to 4 over the last two seasons. Maine (6-4, 5-1), which is on a six-game winning streak, welcomes in CAA leader Rhode Island (8-2, 6-0) this week.
9. The SWAC seeks to move past the brawl, fine and suspensions involving Bethune-Cookman and Grambling State with important games. Prairie View A&M (7-3, 5-1) would clinch the West Division title and a spot in the conference championship game with a likely win over visiting Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Panthers are surrendering just 284.0 yards and 17.4 points per game – not just conference lows but their best averages since 2008 and 2009, respectively. The only way the East Division berth would be secured is if reigning conference champ Jackson State (7-2, 5-1) beats Bethune-Cookman and Alabama State (7-2, 5-1) suffers an unlikely loss to Mississippi Valley State in Mobile.
10. The week’s first game is Friday night with North Carolina Central (7-3, 2-1) hosting South Carolina State (7-3, 3-0), which was originally expected to be the MEAC’s biggest game, until the Eagles lost to surprising Delaware State (7-3, 3-0) to open the conference schedule. The Eagles still have a path to the MEAC’s Celebration Bowl bid. They need to beat SCSU and hope SCSU can rebound to win at Delaware State. The tiebreakers for a three-way tie at 4-1 would lead to favoring NCCU due to its four nonconference wins over Division I opponents.
FCS Longest Active Winning StreaksOverall15 – Tennessee Tech14 – North Dakota State10 – Lehigh, Montana9 – HarvardHome20 – Villanova17 – North Dakota State13 – Rhode IslandRoad7 – Harvard6 – North Dakota State, Tennessee Tech5 – Mercer
— Opta FCS Football (@OptaAnalystFCS) November 9, 2025FCS Football Top 25 Schedule – Week 12
All times ET and on Saturday unless noted; Predicted winner in boldface
Last week’s record: 13-6 (.682); Season record: 178-45 (.798)
No. 1 North Dakota State (10-0, 7-0 MVFC): Northern Iowa (3-7, 1-5), 3:30 p.m. (ABC North Dakota/ESPN+)
No. 2 Montana (10-0, 6-0 Big Sky): at Portland State (1-9, 1-5), 5 p.m. (Scripps/EXPN+)
No. 3 Montana State (8-2, 6-0 Big Sky): No. 9 UC Davis (7-2, 5-1), 10:15 p.m. (ESPN2)
No. 4 Lehigh (10-0, 5-0 Patriot): at Colgate (4-6, 2-3), 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 5 Tennessee Tech (10-0, 7-0 OVC-Big South): at Kentucky (4-5), 1:30 p.m. (SECN+/ESPN+)
No. 6 Tarleton State (9-1, 5-1 UAC): North Alabama (2-8, 1-5), 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 7 Harvard (8-0, 5-0 Ivy): Penn (5-3, 3-2), noon (ESPN+)
No. 8 Mercer (8-1, 7-0 SoCon): Chattanooga (5-5, 4-2), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 9 UC Davis (7-2, 5-1 Big Sky): at No. 3 Montana State (8-2, 6-0), 10:15 p.m. (ESPN2)
No. 10 Villanova (7-2, 6-1 CAA): Stony Brook (5-5, 3-3), 1 p.m. (FloCollege)
No. 11 Rhode Island (8-2, 6-0 CAA): at Maine (6-4, 5-1), 1 p.m. (ABC7/FloCollege)
No. 12 Monmouth (8-2, 5-1 CAA): at North Carolina A&T (2-8, 2-4), noon (FloCollege)
No. 13 North Dakota (6-4, 4-2 MVFC): at Murray State (0-10, 0-6), noon (ESPN+)
No. 14 Illinois State (7-3, 4-2 MVFC): at No. 16 South Dakota State (7-3, 3-3), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 15 Stephen F. Austin (8-2, 6-0 Southland): No. 19 Lamar (8-2, 5-1), 5 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 16 South Dakota State (7-3, 3-3 MVFC): No. 14Illinois State (7-3, 4-2), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 17 South Dakota (7-4, 5-2 MVFC): at No. 21 Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-3), 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 18 Abilene Christian (6-4, 5-1 UAC): at Eastern Kentucky (4-6, 2-4), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 19 Lamar (8-2, 5-1 Southland): at No. 15 Stephen F. Austin (8-2, 6-0), 5 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 20 Youngstown State (6-4, 3-3 MVFC): Indiana State (3-7, 1-5), noon (ESPN+)
No. 21 Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-3 MVFC): No. 17 South Dakota (7-4, 5-2), 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 22 Jackson State (7-2, 5-1 SWAC): Bethune-Cookman (5-5, 4-2), 1 p.m. (TheGrio)
No. 23 Southeastern Louisiana (7-3, 5-1 Southland): at UIW (4-6, 2-4), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 24 Northern Arizona (6-4, 3-3 Big Sky): Cal Poly (3-7, 1-5), 4 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 25 Western Carolina (6-4, 5-1 SoCon): ETSU (5-5, 3-3), noon (Nexstar/ESPN+)
Top photo, from left, via Montana State, CCSU, SFA and UC Davis Athletics. For more FCS coverage, follow on social media at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
FCS Football Week 12 Preview & Predictions: Conference Titles, Postseason Bids at Stake Opta Analyst.
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