Strictly speaking, this isn’t a surprise. About two weeks ago, Jon Heyman reported that potential Cubs free agent target Alex Bregman would be opting out of his remaining deal with the Boston Red Sox (two years, $80M … minus the deferrals). But because he is a Cubs target – and because it is not being officially reported – it felt worth letting you know.
Alex Bregman Opts Out
According to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe, third baseman Alex Bregman opted out of his contract today.
Brett’s latest on Alex Bregman and the Cubs as a potential marriage is still relevant today:
Bregman was still something of a monster in 2022, but he’s now had a three-year run that established something more like a “very, very good” baseline: .264/.346/.450/122 wRC+, good defense, and about 4.0 WAR per season. What does that kind of production get a guy for his age 32+ seasons? Does the fact that he missed a month and a half with a quad injury this year factor in?
I think being unattached to draft pick compensation is going to help Bregman this time around, but I’d be surprised if he found a deal out there that blows away the three-year, $120 million contract he got from the Red Sox (again, albeit with deferrals that brought the present day value down quite a bit). Can he get five years and $150 million? That, combined with what he made in 2025, would put him in the range of what he was reportedly seeking last offseason. I think the five years might be reachable, but I wonder if the guarantee would be closer to $125 million.
This will be one to watch. We know the Cubs were involved to the end on Bregman last time around, reportedly finishing with an offer of four years, $120 million, with opt-outs and without deferrals (the latter point means the actual value might not have been that far off from his deal with the Red Sox). I would anticipate that the interest is still there, notwithstanding the solid rookie season from Matt Shaw at third base.
It wouldn’t be that outrageous to try to accommodate Shaw moving around for a year while Bregman mans third, and then after 2026 you figure out how things might change (Nico Hoerner is a free agent after 2026, for example). The Cubs were willing to do it for 2025, after all.
If Bregman can continue to perform at that new baseline level for a few more seasons, that is a very nice boost to an offense that could be losing Kyle Tucker this offseason, and potentially several more bats after next year (Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Carson Kelly are all free agents).
Of course, the big question is to what extent the front office is able and willing to extend itself on nine-figure deals right now, given the looming expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement after next season. A lockout is expected, as is a potentially dramatic change to the financial structure of the league.
A secondary question: with both corner outfielders potentially departing after 2026, do the Cubs elect to keep their long-term offensive powder dry, thinking that there will be more spots available to upgrade substantially after 2026? The outfield class for that year doesn’t project especially strong, though, and who is to say Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcantara won’t have emerged? Or that Happ or Suzuki won’t have been extended?
Or that Kyle Tucker won’t have been re-signed (he probably won’t)? I suppose the point there is that I’m not too keen on the Cubs intentionally punting an offseason move this year because of the potential for a different move a year later. Instead, the decision on a guy like Bregman has to be made on the merits of adding that particular bat to this lineup for the next three, four, five years.
© Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn ImagesFor my money, Alex Bregman seems like the easiest way to upgrade the lineup *and* the depth/bench without sacrificing talent in trade or subtracting elsewhere. Yes, Matt Shaw’s defense was surprisngly electric, and he flashed an ability to impact the lineup for a while there in the second half, but COUNTING on him to produce offensively next season is not a safe bet for a Cubs team that is already losing Kyle Tucker.
Whether or not the Cubs actually go that route, however, well … we know they wanted him last year!
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