Eight games down for Tennessee this regular season, 4 to go. It feels like it takes forever for college football to arrive, and then when it gets here there is an uncontrollable sprint to the finish line. The Fearless Prediction plans on enjoying every minute of what remains.
This week we take a look at the Tennessee/Oklahoma game. These 2 teams first played in the 1939 Orange Bowl, a 17-0 Tennessee victory. But over the last 86 years there is a very limited history between the Vols and Sooners, with a total of only 5 previous meetings. In 2015, future Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield led Oklahoma to a furious comeback and a 31-24 double OT win over Tennessee. That game is still on the short list for sustained noise at Neyland Stadium. It was 4 hours of absolute bedlam.
Fast-forwarding to the present day, Saturday evening has the potential to also be unhinged. Tennessee gets its first and only home night game of the season at Neyland, and it’ll break out the black “Dark Mode” jerseys. Throw in a very long day of tailgating and just to be safe, and security better be on the lookout for golf balls and mustard bottles.
The stakes are pretty high. Following Tennessee’s blowout win at Kentucky and Oklahoma’s home loss to Ole Miss, both the Vols and Sooners sit at 6-2. The winner of this game still has Playoff hopes. The loser of this game is all but eliminated from Playoff consideration.
Last weekend, Tennessee’s offense got its swerve back following a disappointing performance at Alabama. The Vols gained 504 yards, QB Joey Aguilar threw for 396 of those, and 3 UT pass catchers (Chris Brazzell, Mike Matthews, Braylon Staley) each collected over 100 receiving yards themselves. UT decided to take a knee in the UK red zone in the final 2 minutes, otherwise they probably crack the 60-point mark. The Vols’ offense is more than capable of keeping it in every game the rest of the way.
Tennessee’s defense? Well, that’s a concern. Yes, Edrees Farooq had a pick-6, and a Jadon Perlotte fumble recovery deep in UK territory led to another Vols TD, but giving up 34 points to one of the worst offenses in the SEC is troubling. Tennessee’s defensive backfield is still ravaged by injuries, and it shows. The Vols hope to have leading tackler Arion Carter back for Oklahoma after the junior LB wasn’t able to go against Kentucky.
Oklahoma’s strength lies in its defense, but that group looked shaky against Ole Miss. The Sooners’ defense is allowing less than 10 points per game, but gave up 34 against the Rebels. The 413 yards OU surrendered was more than double its season average. Was that game an aberration? Well, we will know more this weekend as one of the best defenses in the country matches wits with one of the best offenses in the FBS.
But what about Oklahoma’s offense? Can they keep pace with Tennessee’s? QB John Mateer had surgery on this hand a month ago, and has yet to return to form. Against Ole Miss, he completed 17 of his 31 passes for 223 yards, missing open receivers multiple times. Making matters worse, this is an Oklahoma team that does not run the football well. The Sooners are averaging only 130.1 rushing yards per game, placing them in a tie for 99th in the FBS. This is all music to the ears of Tennessee’s defense.
The Vols are a very tough team to beat at Neyland Stadium. Since late November 2021, Tennessee is 23-2 in Knoxville, and those 2 losses were to SEC and national powerhouse Georgia. They might struggle (much of the time) on the road, but Josh Heupel’s group feeds off the home crowd energy.
Speaking of Heupel, much like last season’s win in Norman, a victory on Saturday night would mean everything to him. Heupel was OU’s star QB in 2000, the last time the Sooners won the national title. His firing in 2014 after serving as an Oklahoma assistant coach for a decade has been well-documented, and left some scars.
Team momentum, personal motivation, game location… don’t overthink this result.
Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 20
Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Saturday Down South.
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