ROCHESTER, N.Y.
Saturday started out rainy and quite cool around the Rochester region. A large area of high pressure, with its center just off to our west, is directing mid-level flow from the upper Great Lakes through to the lower Great Lakes. Just enough temperature difference exists between this cool air and Lake Ontario meaning scattered lake effect showers will linger throughout Saturday. Winds out of the southwest Saturday morning will shift to out of the northwest in the afternoon bringing lake showers on-land later Saturday morning and through the lunch hour.
Expect Saturday’s high temperature around 50 degrees with winds shifting from the southwest to northwest between 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain is 30% with accumulations less than 0.10″. The bottom line for Saturday – enjoy the fall foliage while we have it but pack a raincoat in case you encounter a lake shower!
Winds will continue to shift to out of the northwest into Saturday night. We will transition from spotty lake showers Saturday evening to partial clearing after midnight and drier air moving into the region. Low temperatures for Saturday night will dip to 39 degrees with winds out of the northeast between 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain drops to 20% for the overnight hours.
Drier weather on Sunday will make it the more favorable day out of the weekend to get outdoors and enjoy fall. Winds will shift to out of the north between 5 to 10 mph. This wind shift cuts off the main transport of moisture from the upper Great Lakes, thus, greatly reducing the chance for lake showers on Sunday. A quick shower may still generate off Lake Ontario from the lake-air temperature difference, especially in the morning. However, a majority of Sunday will remain dry for Rochester with a low chance of rain at 15%. Movement of colder air from Canada will keep Sunday’s highs only near 48 degrees.
Looking ahead, the first half of the work week brings pleasant fall weather with a mix of sun and clouds through Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the low 50s for much of the week. The next system moves in Thursday bringing rain back in time for Halloween.
First Alert Weather: Lake effect rain showers for Saturday transition to a sunny Sunday WHEC.com.
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