There is no escaping that Plaid Cymru’s victory in the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly is a historic disaster for Labour.
But amid the ashes some Labour MPs have found a shred of encouragement – the key to beating Reform.
A Labour source who had been on the ground in Caerphilly told The i Paper: “What was very clear is there was huge amounts of tactical voting in order to keep Reform out.”
Nigel Farage’s Party is currently riding high in the polls, and has high hopes in for next year’s Welsh Senned elections. The party made no secret it hoped to win this by-election, but came second – pushing Labour into an embarrassing third place.
Labour meanwhile managed just 11 per cent of the vote in a Senedd seat it has held since devolution in 1999, and has won in every Westminster election in Caerphilly for 100 years.
On Thursday night, however, Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle won with 47 per cent of the vote, followed by Reform UK on a creditable 36 per cent.
The Caerphilly by-election results‘This is Keir’s loss’
One senior Labour MP reported a mood of “shock” in the Parliamentary Labour Party at the scale of the loss.
“11 per cent. I thought we might have been done some expectations management to make 21 per cent look like a fair haul,” they told The i Paper. “Most people thought we’d be closer to 20 per cent than 10.”
They were also clear who was responsible for the rout.
“They can’t try and blame the operation, the staff, local issues – this is Keir’s loss,” they said.
They were not the only Labour MP laying responsibility for the defeat squarely at the Prime Minister’s door.
Richard Burgon, the leftwing Labour MP for Leeds East, said: “The historic loss of Caerphilly is the direct result of the disastrous direction taken by the national leadership – from the mess around winter fuel payments to cuts to disability support.”
And yet, despite the pervasive gloom and backbiting about Starmer, some Labour MPs have been able to salvage a shred of encouragement from the wreckage of the Caerphilly by-election – for once, the of Reform was stopped.
What has given Labour particular hope is the nature in which Nigel Farage’s party was checked, with evidence of significant tactical voting.
A Labour source said that a Savanta poll from earlier in the month putting Reform on 42 per cent and Plaid on 38 per cent – with Labour on a distant 12 per cent – had been significant.
“There was a noticeable shift in feeling following that poll which I think focused minds a bit and put people very much behind Plaid,” they said.
‘Silver lining’ for Labour
A Welsh Labour MP said that it was the single “silver lining” from the result. “It’s clear lots of our supporters voted tactically to stop Reform,” they said.
Pollsters poring over the Caerphilly result also believe it demonstrates a vulnerability for Reform belied by their buoyant UK polling figures.
Luke Tryl, the director of the More in Common think-tank, said it showed the “potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform”.
“Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly,” he posted on X. While Labour were squeezed on this occasion, he said it posed the question of whether “in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically?”
Patrick English, the director of political analytics at YouGov, said on X that the margin of Plaid’s victory was a “stark reminder for Farage and Reform that the constituency of voters who don’t want them to win is orders of magnitude greater than those who do want them to be successful”.
“So, despite dropping 35 points yesterday, this result has a significant silver lining for Labour. Their new strategy is to push the binary choice between a Labour and Reform government, Keir or Farage as PM. Plaid coalescing the anti-Reform vote and winning shows that can work.”
Sioned Williams, Plaid’s Senedd member for South Wales West, told The i Paper there was “definitely” significant tactical voting in Caerphilly which had played a part in her party’s “thumping win”.
However, she said that the outcome of the contest could not be divorced from the public disillusionment with the Labour governments in both at Cardiff and Westminster.
“There were Labour voters saying that they were going to be voting for us, but they were also saying that they were very disappointed in Labour,” she said.
“That’s evident on every doorstep in every community, the disappointment really that there’s been, and the lack of vision that people have felt, and the lack of change they’ve felt in their lives.”
She added that the people of Wales had been “told explicitly that things would improve” through the Welsh and UK Governments working together as a “partnership in power”.
But she claimed that they had instead seen policies emanating from Westminster targeting “the most vulnerable people in our society”, such as retention of the two-child benefit cap or the botched attempt at welfare reform.
A ‘substantial vote’ for Farage
Nigel Farage campaigning in Caerphilly, with his party’s candidate, Llyr Powell (right). The Party had high hopes of winning the seat. Ben Birchall/PA WireOn Reform, Williams admitted there had been a “substantial vote” for Farage’s party but said she was optimistic about beating them elsewhere in Wales. “When you think of the money and resources that Reform obviously threw at this – and were able to do so because it was a by-election. And you know, Nigel Farage was waiting in the wings last night, ready for his victory party – it shows that they can be defeated.”
A Labour source said that a range of other factors had played a part in spoiling Farage’s party. They claimed that policies such as a proposal to bring back coalmining in Wales had backfired on Reform.
“Every time they announce a policy they seem to lose votes,” the source said. “They have historically had a quite condescending nature as it comes to Welsh policy. Their coalmines thing a few months ago was widely mocked.”
Despite the crushing nature of Thursday’s defeat, Welsh Labour insist they can turn things round before the Senedd election in May.
The Labour source said: “Not to dampen down the significance of the result at all, but the amount of people I spoke to on doors who were like ‘look I’ll vote for you in May, but in this I’ve got to vote Plaid to keep them out.’
“This is very much a wake-up call, a shot across the bow. We must listen to the people who fundamentally want change.”
Unsurprisingly, Reform figures are contemptuous of any suggestion that Thursday represented a bad result.
A senior Reform source told The i Paper that while the party was “of course disappointed” it had laid “really good foundations”.
‘Bodes very very well for us’, says Reform
“It bodes very, very well for us is the valleys,” they said. “Plaid can’t replicate this in the valleys, they can’t replicate it in places like Monmouthshire, they can’t replicate it in mid-Wales… actually this result bodes very well for us next May.
They also poured cold water on the idea that the result was a blueprint for Labour winning the next general election by uniting progressives.
“For Labour to do this in the general election you actually have to have a progressive offering.
“It’s very easy for Plaid because they’ve always been a small coalition partner so they can very easily hide their record. Labour will be going into the next election with a record in government which if its anything to go by what it currently is, is a dire record. Progressives simply won’t want to vote for them.”
Meanwhile, other dangers lay in wait for Labour and Plaid.
square ZOë GRüNEWALD Reform is no longer Starmer's only problem
Read More
Labour is currently in talks with other parties to try to support the Welsh Government’s budget, with Plaid indicating that they are open-minded to making a deal to prevent the budget cuts which would otherwise follow.
A former Tory adviser who knows Welsh politics well said that if Plaid ended up voting for the budget, Reform could weaponise it against them.
“[Plaid] will prop [Labour] up now for the next six months. That’s good for Reform,” they said.
“Reform will be disappointed not to win, but in someways it makes the dividing line much clearer come next May.
“Plaid win the battle, Reform still win the war”
Hence then, the article about labour s silver lining from welsh election disaster a plan to block reform was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Labour’s ‘silver lining’ from Welsh election disaster – a plan to ‘block’ Reform )
Also on site :
- Trump Wants To”Unleash Hell” In 2026; POTUS Tries To Go Full Maximus With A Misguided ‘Gladiator’ Flex
- GCE Global Solutions Corp. Announces Strategic Acquisition of GCE Payroll Advisers Inc. to Strengthen Global EOR and Payroll Platform
- Mickey Rourke Sued for $59,100 in Unpaid Rent, Facing Eviction