Gaza’s brewing ‘civil war’ should worry us all ...Middle East

The world has long feared that after the end of the conflict in Gaza, its two million inhabitants – battered and starving from two years of war – could be subjected to warlordism and deadly intra-Palestinian fighting.

This fear has intensified since the return of armed Hamas forces to the streets after the militant group and Israel agreed to a fragile ceasefire earlier this month. The ceasefire was accompanied by a lethal show of force from Hamas against its perceived Palestinian enemies, posing a new threat to peace in Gaza.

Hamas has reportedly recalled 7,000 members of its internal security forces to take control as Israeli troops withdraw. At least 27 people were killed in one clash between Hamas and the Dughmush clan.

There are two kinds of operations Hamas has been carrying out over the last fortnight, with some overlap between them.

There is nothing new about Hamas killing – sometimes brutally and publicly – those suspected of being collaborators with Israel. During and after the 2014 war (which seemed major until it was dwarfed by the one launched after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 2023) at least two dozen suspects were executed by Hamas.

This month’s extrajudicial killings have been condemned by the Palestinian organisation Al-Mezan Centre for Human Rights, which reported on 15 October the fatal shooting from behind of eight bound and blindfolded Palestinians, along with homes being raided by armed men. Al-Mezan was careful not to identify the perpetrators as Hamas but pointed out that no official statement had been issued by local Hamas authorities specifically condemning the clashes, the raids or the killings.

It also noted that the Hamas-run interior ministry had pledged to “take the necessary measures to restore order and security in Gaza following the new ceasefire agreement”.

One issue that did not exist after the two previous wars in 2008-9 and 2014 is the return of armed and often criminal gangs, comprising various clans.

Some of these gangs have been accused of stealing from aid convoys, often to sell at large profits on the black market. Others have been armed by Israel on the orders of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, per his own public statements.

One of the groups Hamas has clashed with is the Dughmush clan, based in the Sabra neighbourhood of Gaza City. The group had been little heard of outside Gaza since members of the clan, calling themselves the “Army of Islam”, kidnapped BBC journalist Alan Johnston in 2007.

Back then, Hamas forced the kidnappers to free Johnston, as part of a Gaza-wide crackdown on all clan gangs, including the Dughmush and a clan accused of drug running.

It’s not surprising that, with Hamas preoccupied by the war against Israel, similar clans – like the Rafah-based Abu Shahab and the militia in Khan Yunis led by Hossam al-Astal – should have re-emerged. Both groups are now thought to be in Hamas’s sights.

Nor is it surprising that Al-Mezan blamed these internal breakdowns on what it called “the chaotic conditions caused by Israel’s genocide and man-made famine”.

While anecdotal and polling evidence suggests a sharp fall in Hamas’s popularity since 7 October, 2023, many Palestinian civilians have complained over the last year about the mounting lawlessness and looting which they associate with some of these gangs. Whatever their disillusionment with Hamas, the sight of law enforcement back on the streets may at least in the short term offer some hope of basic law and order.

Donald Trump may have been echoing a large section of Gaza public opinion when he said last week that Hamas does “want to stop the problems… and we gave them approval for a period of time”.

Trump’s remarks also suggest that he may have been advised that allowing some licence to Hamas in terms of a crackdown on the local clan lords was advisable, even if Israel’s government disagrees.

So far, for Trump at least, the crucial issue appears to be the halting of Palestinian attacks on Israel and vice versa.

square WORLD Analysis

Why Trump will accept brutal violence in Gaza despite ceasefire

Of course, this may further complicate the key issue of if and when Hamas disarms, as it is supposed to do under Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

In the short term, Hamas is not going to allow its authority with mediators to be undermined by armed local enemies. But equally important is how far and fast Israeli forces will be willing to withdraw.

The clashes between Hamas and rival groups are troubling, and lawless. However, it’s likely that the entry of aid, the return of the remaining dead hostages and the absence of major clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces is going to be far more critical to maintaining the ceasefire. Unless, of course, the inter-Palestinian fighting erupts into a full-scale civil war in which Israel becomes involved.

That should worry us all.

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