The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to [email protected] and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Our primary focus this week? The coaching carousel on the West Coast …
Who would be on a short list of candidates for the Oregon State football vacancy? — @MarcSheehan006
First, let’s be clear about the timing: The Beavers are six or eight weeks away from naming a head coach to succeed Trent Bray. (Same for UCLA and Stanford, which are addressed below.)
Athletic director Scott Barnes plans to hire a search firm and form a search committee and assess how potential candidates perform through the remainder of the season.
He undoubtedly has a handful of names he’d like to pursue, but there is no official short list yet. It’s far too early. Everything is speculation and agents pushing agendas.
Who might wind up on OSU’s list?
Don’t be surprised if the Beavers reach out to former Pittsburgh and Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst. He left the Panthers before Barnes arrived in the Steel City but has a first-rate reputation and was fired early in the 2022 season after winning nine games the previous year.
Former LSU coach Ed Orgeron was linked to the OSU job recently by the website On3.
As much as we would love to see Orgeron leading the Beavers — it would be first-class theatre (and great content) — his personality does not seem like the right fit for Corvallis. Everything about him is Deep South, not Pacific Northwest.
And don’t forget: Although Orgeron assembled one of the greatest teams of all time at LSU in 2019, he has been out of coaching for four years.
Who should the Beavers hire?
If Barnes dialed up the Hotline and asked for advice, we would send him to Berkeley, the current whereabouts of Mr. Nicholas Robert Rolovich.
Yep, Oregon State should hire Nick Rolovich.
That suggestion is bound to stir emotions and generate laughter, but the Hotline is dead serious.
If you’ll recall, Rolovich was fired by Washington State in the middle of the 2021 season for refusing to comply with the state’s COVID vaccine requirements. His exemption request was denied. He then sued the school and lost.
But the politics of the vaccine are over, the Beavers need a coach and Rolovich is a damn good one.
Oregon State isn’t in position to gamble with this hire. The search is all about risk mitigation — about identifying candidates who have been head coaches, won at OSU’s level, can attract talent and won’t have a steep learning curve.
Rolovich fits that profile.
He’s currently serving as Cal’s senior offensive analyst. But in his previous life, Rolovich produced a 10-game winner at Hawaii before WSU appointed him to succeed Mike Leach. His first season in Pullman was derailed by COVID. In his second, the Cougars were 4-3 (with victories over Cal, Stanford and Oregon State) before Rolovich was dismissed for violating state law.
He’s a sharp offensive coach, can identify overlooked talent (ding-ding-ding), relates well to players, knows the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii recruiting grounds, would hit the ground at warp speed and give the Beavers the experience and brainpower they desperately need.
Rolovich is a proven winner at OSU’s new competitive level — the rebuilt Pac-12 will be comparable to the top tier of the old Mountain West — and therefore provides greater risk mitigation than the vast majority of coaches likely to have interest in the vacancy.
The Beavers cannot afford to fall behind in their new home.
As it stands, they are hurtling toward complete irrelevance.
Rolovich is the antidote.
I have always had the feeling that Washington coach Jedd Fisch has happy feet and is looking for his next coaching position, e.g., UCLA or Florida (his alma mater). Your thoughts? — Jim S
One look at Fisch’s resume is proof enough: He has coached for 12 schools and NFL teams in the past 20 years.
The moment Washington hired him away from Arizona in the winter of 2024, he became an immediate flight risk.
The Florida job isn’t open, although that could change this weekend. Many believe Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin is atop the Gators’ wish list, but we would not be surprised if Florida makes a run at Fisch eventually. (That presumes the Huskies finish with eight or nine wins.)
Fisch’s fondness for UCLA is common knowledge: He enjoyed his time as the Bruins’ offensive coordinator in 2017 (and interim coach for two games) and then spent two years on the Rams’ staff; and his wife, Amber, loves Southern California.
Naturally, his name was linked to the UCLA vacancy by media reports soon after the Bruins fired DeShaun Foster.
Now, keep in mind that Fisch’s agent, Doug Hendrickson, works for the Wasserman Group, and the company’s CEO, Casey Wasserman, is UCLA’s biggest donor and leading the coaching search.
Hendrickson wants to create a market for his client and his boss. There is one way to accomplish both goals: Connect Fisch to the UCLA vacancy.
That said, we would not dismiss Fisch-to-UCLA as a possibility, not for a minute.
And the same goes for Florida, if there’s a vacancy.
What are your thoughts about James Franklin coaching at Stanford? — @gwynnitas
My thoughts are that Stanford should do whatever it takes to land James Franklin. He would be a phenomenal hire — partly because of his tenure at Penn State but largely because of his success at Vanderbilt in the early 2010s.
Franklin took charge of the Commodores following a 2-10 season. Within two years, he was winning nine games in Nashville — not once, but twice. Then Penn State came calling, and the rest is history.
Granted, it’s not a stellar history by Penn State’s standards. Franklin’s inability to win the biggest games on the schedule undercut his support over time and contributed to the abrupt dismissal last week after losses to Oregon, UCLA and Northwestern.
But Stanford doesn’t need a coach who can beat Ohio State. Stanford needs a coach who can beat NC State (and Virginia and Wake Forest … and Cal).
Franklin’s track record on that front is stellar. And his years of recruiting the East Coast would serve Stanford well given its need to identify players across the country.
But would he take the job?
We suspect Franklin will have several options at the sub-blue blood level, and there could be a record number of vacancies in late November. (Many schools didn’t make changes last winter because they were preserving cash for Year 1 of revenue-sharing.)
Stanford has more than enough money to lure a coach of Franklin’s stature if the school chooses to deploy its resources accordingly.
For the Cardinal, success in the post-modern era of college football is entirely about willpower — just as it was 20 years ago when the university got tired of losing, overhauled its approach, funded the program appropriately and went on a decade-long run of high-level winning.
Is there any chance UCLA looks at interim coach Tim Skipper for the permanent job? Or are the Bruins too afraid of Clay Helton-ing the situation and too excited about spending the UC Regents’ added money? — @WorkishFromHome
Our view: Skipper only emerges as a serious candidate if the Bruins (2-4) win four more and become bowl eligible.
Winning out doesn’t seem like a realistic option given their late-season trips to Bloomington and Columbus and a finishing stretch with Washington and USC.
But a bowl berth would mean six wins in nine games for Skipper, which could propel him into the search.
That said, the Bruins cannot settle. They should hire an experienced head coach who has won consistently, preferably at multiple levels. Skipper might be the best interim coach in history — he won six games as Fresno State’s interim coach in 2024 — but that’s hardly an indication that he would be an elite permanent coach.
And it appears the Bruins want an elite head coach.
They went to the University of California Board of Regents this week and requested approval for “Athletic Contract Compensation Components.”
In other words: The administration sought permission to offer a vastly more lucrative salary than UCLA has paid in the past.
How much?
The regents met in a closed session, so we don’t know the details. But it’s safe to assume UCLA wants $8 million at minimum and probably closer to $10 million. (Chip Kelly was the highest-paid coach in school history when he departed, earning approximately $6 million in 2023.)
If the Bruins head to market dangling at least $8 million annually, the candidate pool should be stout.
We expect them to target two coaches:
— Fisch, who’s in his second year at Washington but, as noted above, was on UCLA’s staff under Jim Mora.
— Pat Fitzgerald, the former Northwestern coach who was recently vindicated in the hazing scandal that cost the Wildcats coach his job in 2023.
Fitzgerald won at least nine games on five occasions in Evanston, where admissions standards make consistent success difficult. Then again, his final two years were substandard, which could make Fitzgerald a difficult sell.
Lastly, don’t be surprised if the Bruins aim higher than expected — if they pursue coaches nobody would link to the vacancy.
We have always believed 70 percent of the pool of qualified candidates would avoid UCLA at all costs, partly because of the Southern California lifestyle and partly because it’s a basketball school without an on-campus stadium that’s down the freeway from a football blue blood.
But for the other 30 percent, UCLA is viewed as a coveted gig with immense potential if the university is truly committed to success.
Given that new chancellor Julio Frenk sought approval for more cash from the regents, it appears he’s committed to winning.
So the Big Ten’s private capital play might not happen. If it gets revived and approved, the super league concept is out. What would it mean for Big Ten expansion? — @SteveWindhamJr
We agree on the super league aspect. The private capital infusion is contingent on all 18 schools signing an extension of the Big Ten’s grant-of-rights that would bind them to the conference until 2046. Ohio State, Michigan and the other heavyweights could not leave for a super league.
The expansion calculation is more complicated. Certainly, the Big Ten would be open for new members in 2030, when the current media rights deal ends, if the private capital play fails and the status quo endures.
But in theory, the Big Ten could expand either way. Nothing about the private capital move would preclude expansion — it would simply make adding to the membership more complicated.
Under the reported terms of the deal, the Big Ten would create a commercial arm through which all the revenue streams flow (e.g., media rights and sponsorships). Each of the 18 schools, the conference office and the investor (UC Investments) would receive 1/20th (or 5 percent) of the total annual revenue.
What happens if the conference adds two schools? Would everyone then receive 1/22nd of the revenue? The newcomers would have to add enough value to make each share worth more to the existing schools. Given the likely price tag for Big Ten media rights in 2030, that will be a not-so-small fortune.
Or would the newcomers enter at less than equal shares?
Keep in mind: The continuing members would not be splitting up 100 percent of the revenue with the newbies. They would be splitting 90 percent of the total pot, because the conference office and the investor would each have 5 percent.
What are the chances one of the future Pac-12 teams qualify for the College Football Playoff this year? — @ColAthAdv_Will
Somewhere south of slim and north of none.
San Diego State, which lost by multiple touchdowns at Washington State, is the only member of the rebuilt Pac-12 with a chance to reach the CFP.
And the Aztecs (5-1) would have to run the table to be part of the conversation.
There is one automatic bid reserved for the highest-ranked team from the non-power conferences. Clearing the bar almost assuredly will require a 13-0 or 12-1 record.
San Diego State (5-1) is the lone member of the new Pac-12 with one loss.
Over in the American, four teams are either 6-0 or 5-1: Navy, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane and North Texas. Also, UNLV (Mountain West) is 6-0, and James Madison (Sun Belt) is 5-1.
We suspect schedule strength and quality wins will play a major role in determining which non-Power Four school makes the field. Of the aforementioned group, South Florida has the strongest schedule (No. 34 nationally), according to the Sagarin computer rankings. (The Bulls beat Boise State and Florida, and played Miami.)
With half the season remaining, the dynamics could change three times over. But at this point, the American champion should be viewed as the frontrunner for the CFP.
If you’re wondering about the Rebels, yes, they have a chance. But Dan Mullen and Co. will have a shortage of quality victories on their resume unless UCLA keeps winning.
How dumb is it for Indiana to give coach Curt Cignetti $93 million based off one-and-a-half seasons? What if he flames out next year? Isn’t this how schools get stuck paying huge buyouts and then cry about needing private equity? — @NateJones2009
Yes, the massive buyouts are one path to poverty — or claims of poverty.
But Indiana doesn’t view Cignetti as a one-and-a-half-season wonder because of his success at previous stops. He won at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Elon and James Madison before moving to Bloomington.
Allow us to frame the situation in this manner: Would you have thought it crazy for Washington to offer Kalen DeBoer $10 million annually halfway through his second season at Washington?
The situations are comparable.
DeBoer won at Sioux Falls and Fresno State, then jumped to the Huskies and went 11-2 in his first season. By the middle of his second year, he was emerging as one of the hottest coaches in the country — not as hot as Cignetti is right now, but reasonably close.
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Oregon State and San Diego State spend approximately $100 million on athletics. Could a Long Beach State ever fit in the new Pac-12? Take football out of the equation and the Beach isn’t that far from Fresno State or Utah State funding levels. — @CurtisBlack
Fresno State’s budget in the 2023-24 fiscal year was $57 million, according to the school’s NCAA financial report. Of that, $19 million (or 33 percent) was allocated to football and $38 million to everything else.
We don’t have Long Beach State’s latest budget readily available, but the Beach typically spends approximately $25 million on athletics. That’s not the same outlay as Fresno State’s non-football costs, but it’s within a reasonable range.
The question is: What benefits would the Beach bring to the rebuilt conference?
Because LBSU doesn’t play football, any material value would be tied to men’s basketball. And the school is an infrequent participant in the NCAA Tournament (three appearances in the past 30 years).
The Pac-12 wants to remain lean. After all, the only member of the new conference that doesn’t sponsor football is a basketball powerhouse (Gonzaga) that more than pays for itself in TV ratings, NCAA units and prestige.
You have previously mentioned how bad San Jose State’s renovated stadium looks on TV, with no fans on the east side. Why didn’t they add the TV camera wells on top, so they would face the side with the stands? — @dwhit30
Because the side with two decks of seats — the side that looks like a college football stadium — includes the press box and the TV booth.
In order to face the camera positioned on the east side, the head referee would turn his back to the network announcers, official scorer, coaches’ box and the media.
We can’t recall ever seeing cameras on the opposite side from the press box.
Our understanding is the decision to create a berm on the east side was made by central campus, not athletics. It makes SJSU football look third rate — worse than elite high school programs — and is one of several reasons the Spartans were not considered for the new Pac-12.
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