Burnley’s £50m-plus compensation case against Everton has now concluded, with a verdict anticipated in the early part of 2026 after a three-week case at the International Dispute Resolution Centre in London.
The i Paper understands that closing arguments were heard in front of a three-person panel at the end of last week and a verdict could potentially be delivered in around three months, although sources have indicated there is no firm timeline. There is also no guarantee that the decision will be made public.
It is understood that their claim is for “in excess” of £50m.
Burnley’s argument, vigorously defended by Everton, is that they are owed compensation after the Toffees breached the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR).
The Toffees were docked 10 points, later reduced to six, in late 2023 and had that been applied during the 2021-22 season, which was part of the period in which Everton were found to be in breach of PSR, then Burnley would have avoided relegation.
Everton had a 10-point deduction reduced to six on appeal in 2024 (Photo: Getty)Legal experts believe the principle of “loss of chance” is at the heart of the Clarets’ case. For their claim to be successful, they needed to prove a link between the club’s relegation and any sporting advantage Everton benefited from due to the breaches.
Lawyers had been preparing on both sides for almost a year and while some legal experts felt Everton might look to reach a settlement with Burnley before it went to arbitration, the fact the case reached its conclusion would suggest they have confidence in their defence.
The arbitration panel will now decide whether there is merit to Burnley’s argument and if they decide there is liability, they will then decide the scale of the financial compensation that Everton owe. They could also dismiss the claim entirely.
“It can only be a financial penalty. This is not disciplinary, it is pure party versus party,” Daniel Gore, a senior associate with Withers, tells The i Paper of the possible resolutions.
“Burnley will need to prove damages and then the arbitration panel will take a view of the percentage value they’ll give the loss of chance and then give it a number.
“It’s partly scientific, partly finger in the air.”
Burnley’s argument rests on a principle known as ‘loss of chance’ (Photo: Getty)Legal experts believe the complex case has potentially far-reaching consequences for the Premier League.
A finding in the league’s case against Manchester City, centering on 130 charges alleging breaches of financial rules, is due soon and rival clubs are understood to be considering similar action if they are found guilty.
“It has really significant implications because you extrapolate relegation from one angle but the principle could apply to European qualification or even winning a title at the extreme end of it,” Gore says.
“Burnley are essentially saying there’s a negligent aspect to the Premier League for not taking action in the right timeframe where a breach occurred which cost them the opportunity to either gain more points or a team above them to get fewer points.
“They will essentially be saying they could have survived if Everton had either not overspent or breached the PSR rules or been punished in the right season.”
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The case was heard in private, with few details in the public domain. There is a possibility a verdict may never be publicised.
Stefan Borson, a legal expert and former advisor to Manchester City, believes Burnley’s case may have merit but thinks it unlikely that the panel will find Everton liable for close to the £50m claim.
“I think given the comments in the original decision and appeal on the Everton case, there is a good chance Burnley will establish that Everton’s breach impacted them sufficiently to lead to an award of damages,” he says.
“The question then is one of quantification of damages. In the following financial year, Burnley in the Championship reported a £58m revenue decrease mainly due to the drop in broadcasting revenue which more than halved in the Championship.
“The calculation of loss is complicated by Burnley’s own prudence in making substantial wage decreases. This, of course, means that Burnley did not simply lose the whole of the £58m revenue – they lost the profits [if any].
“This is likely to mean that their losses as assessed in this case will be a fraction of this revenue loss albeit still in the millions.”
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Gore believes it is the “loss of chance” principle which may be difficult to prove given the circumstances surrounding Everton’s breach.
“A lot of what Everton were charged with were infrastructure costs so it’s not necessarily that Burnley can point to a single player who scored a lot of goals and kept them up,” he said.
“When you look at the Sheffield Utd v West Ham case, you have a single player – Carlos Tevez – who scored goals and won games and earned points. I don’t think you can say the same thing for Burnley. There’s a four point gap but is there a single thing you can point to?
“Some of the breaches that Everton were charged with eventually that resulted in the six-point deduction were an accumulation over a couple of seasons so the sanction might not have been the same if it had been applied in the same season.
“So my instinct is that Burnley have a difficult case because of the timing in their particular background.”
Burnley and Everton have been contacted for comment.
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