By Arit John, David Wright, CNN
(CNN) — Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s name isn’t on the ballot this year, but California’s upcoming special election will likely hinge on how voters view him.
Newsom has made himself the face of California Democrats’ efforts to redraw their congressional maps in response to Texas Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting, investing his own political capital into his party’s efforts to win back control of the US House next year.
For supporters of Proposition 50, which would put in place new congressional maps that could give Democrats five additional seats, Newsom is a leader of one of the most substantive efforts to push back on President Donald Trump since he returned to office. Opponents instead frame the measure as a bid to consolidate Democratic power and boost Newsom’s resume ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run.
Both sides are betting on Newsom energizing partisans to vote in an off-year election that could have major implications on the midterms and the second half of Trump’s term. But for Newsom, the redistricting campaign also allows him to leverage his presidential ambitions.
“My Decision – Gavin Newsom,” began a recent text sent to supporters, teasing the speculation before quickly turning to the matter at hand. “We have no choice. It is the only chance to counteract even part of what Republicans are doing to redraw maps,” the message continued.
Newsom has raised more than $108 million for the measure, more than double the amount the opposition has brought in. He’s promoted the referendum in public appearances and interviews, including podcasts and a livestream filled with popular Democratic politicians and influencers.
And he’s appeared in waves of advertisements and fundraising appeals for the redistricting campaign.
“With Prop 50, The Election Rigging Response Act, we can stop Trump cold,” Newsom says in one spot, standing in front of an American flag.
Mike Mikus, a Democratic political strategist based in Pennsylvania, called Newsom’s push “an educated gamble.”
“The political environment that we’re in allows him to take these risks,” he said. “What unites all Democrats, all of the various wings of the Democratic Party, is standing up to Donald Trump, and I think it’s paying off for him.”
Meanwhile, a No committee backed by former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has spent more than $500,000 airing an ad criticizing Newsom’s redistricting push, saying that he “wants the same politicians who failed California to draw their own safe seats and rig elections to help make himself president.”
Matt Rexroad, a Republican redistricting expert and consultant, contrasted Newsom’s prominence in the Yes campaign with Charles Munger Jr., the largest donor to the effort to oppose Proposition 50. Munger has not appeared in any of his own ads and has only done one public appearance during a campaign, a Zoom press conference.
“This is the best political thing to ever happen to the man,” Rexroad said of Newsom. “And so he’s out there seeking glory from this in a big way.”
Democrats make the campaign about Trump
Democrats have sought to make Trump the central opponent in their campaign. Proponents of the redistricting push have emphasized its place in broader resistance to the administration.
Supporters of Proposition 50 have said they view the November 4 vote as a turnout election. About 45% of registered voters in California are Democrats, compared to 25% who are registered Republicans and 23% who registered with no party preference. Trump lost the state in all three of his presidential runs by at least 20 percentage points.
Newsom’s coalition includes unions and groups such as Planned Parenthood. Good-government groups that helped enact the state’s independent redistricting commission – such as Common Cause and the League of Women Voters – have stayed neutral.
A growing number of high-profile national figures, including former President Barack Obama, have appeared in ads for the campaign. Each spot includes a financial disclosure at the end noting they were paid for by “Governor Newsom’s Ballot Measure Committee.”
“California, the whole nation is counting on you,” Obama says in a new ad released Tuesday. “Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years. With Prop 50, you can stop Republicans in their tracks.”
Highlighting Trump has allowed Newsom’s side to nationalize the ballot initiative. The governor used a similar strategy during a September 2021 recall election. In the final weeks of that campaign, Newsom evoked the January 6 attack on the US Capitol and warned that his Republican opponent Larry Elder would bring “Trumpism” to the state.
Newsom won the recall vote handily – 62% of voters opposed removing him from office.
“To make this into a ‘Screw Trump’ campaign was child’s play in a way,” said Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist who worked on Newsom’s brief 2010 gubernatorial run, eight years before he ran again and won his first term. “It’s just a winning strategy in California, and the arguments (the No side is) using are just not powerful enough or relevant enough to counterbalance it.”
Democrats don’t expect a similar margin in November, but they do expect Newsom’s political investment to pay dividends.
“It’s all upside for him,” South said.
Republicans and some Democrats oppose the Newsom push
But some Democrats and independents have argued the party would have been better off competing for the seats under the current congressional lines drawn by the redistricting commission, rather than undermining the panel to put in place new maps that could give Democrats five additional seats.
Steven Maviglio, a California-based Democratic strategist and critic of the governor, argued that Democrats had miscalculated by attempting to overturn the maps drawn by the commission, particularly when there was a chance Democrats could have won some of the Republican-held seats outright next year. He added that voters had made their voices heard on the issue, and it’s “anti-democratic” to try to undo that.
“I don’t know where I’m going to end up voting on this damn thing, but I tell you, it’s not right the way this is being done,” he told CNN.
Jessica Millan Patterson, the head of the McCarthy-backed Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab, said that while Newsom is being used to boost turnout among base Republican voters, Republicans are also hoping persuadable voters will agree with them on policy. Patterson pointed to recent failed progressive ballot measures on rent control and ending cash bail as evidence that the state’s voters are winnable on referendums.
“California voters have long been more conservative, especially when it comes to the issues and the ideas,” she said.
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