The diplomatic momentum of President Donald Trump’s historic achievement in securing the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and introducing a real chance at delivering peace in the Middle East, means the region has new reasons to be hopeful. Plus, there may also be new reasons for hope in Ukraine.
During the November 2023 ceasefire, President Joe Biden announced the release of approximately 105 hostages held by Hamas and 240 Palestinians held by Israel.
To salute the breakthrough of his ceasefire that released 20 Israelis and nearly 2,000 Palestinians, Trump strutted with the expected self-congratulatory speech, praising the toughness of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the perseverance of Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, the visionary alliance-building skills of son-in-law Jared Kushner, and the anonymous Arab state partners involved in the negotiations.
While there was precedent, the milestone offers a path toward historic closure that could reshape the ground rules for Middle East diplomatic relations with the rest of the world over many centuries and weaken Russian President Vladimir Putin’s suspected efforts to incite bloody, diversionary distractions in the region.
Credit should be given where it is due. If there were a time for bravado, Trump earned the right to indulge for the moment. The president’s speech at the Knesset, Israel’s parliament offered viewers more than the standard bluster, however. It provided a preview of the core pillars of Trump’s unique leadership style, which serve as both his greatest resource and his biggest liability: projecting peace through strength, aligning interests around the promise of economic prosperity, and identifying with power and wealth.
When directed at the right target, this approach can be quite effective. When misaligned, chaos often ensues. The Israel-Hamas war serves as an example of the former, while the Russia-Ukraine war has so far been closer to the latter. That is not to say that Trump will not pivot. In fact, based on recent policy shifts, there is good reason to believe the administration will soon correct course.
The president’s Knesset speech reveals the path forward.
Projecting peace through strength
In what sometimes felt more like a State of the Union address back in America, Trump used a significant portion of his Knesset speech to boast about the strength of the U.S. military and economy. The essential message at times seemed to be that the U.S. is now more powerful since he reclaimed the White House nine months ago.
“Now, we have a stronger military than we’ve ever had before,” stated Trump. The Department of Defense has been rebranded as the Department of War. Political correctness has been eliminated from the military ranks, Trump emphasized, arguing that Israel benefited from this newfound strength through access to U.S. weapons, intelligence, and financial backing. Israel picked off the senior leadership of Iran and its proxies across the Middle East using U.S. support. Iranian airspace was under Israeli control for 12 days, again with U.S. assistance. Finally, American B-2 bombers dropped bunker-buster bombs on Iran’s major nuclear facilities, potentially setting its atomic advancements back years or more.
In his speech, Trump’s message to Iran balanced his obsession with strength and an offering of peace.
“To Iran, as you know, this is not said out of weakness,” said Trump. “We are ready when you are, and it will be the best decision that Iran has ever made.”
Similar veiled olive branches have been extended to Russian President Vladimir Putin—but only after months of flattery and praise strangely directed at Putin by his American counterpart. Nevertheless, Trump has quickly changed tactics. In September, he publicly called Russia a “paper tiger” for their embarrassing military performance on the Ukrainian battlefield. In the past week, he has threatened to send Ukraine U.S. Tomahawk missiles that easily could reach and inflict severe damage on Moscow. The step-up follows months of Ukraine bombing oil depots, pipelines, and power stations, thanks to newly provided U.S. intelligence.
However, the U.S. has continued to resist extending the full might of economic sanctions that could be imposed. The current price cap on Russian oil might be enforced more rigorously and potentially lowered. Price limits could also be applied to other commodities. Sanctions could target foreign banks that process transactions related to Russia’s military-industrial complex. Countries aiding Russia in bypassing sanctions could face penalties for their involvement. Furthermore, more state-owned enterprises in critical sectors could be subject to sanctions.
The promise of economic prosperity
Still ever the businessman, President Trump’s message in Israel was peppered with notes of economic potential that could be released through stability in the Middle East. He delivered a message directed at key stakeholders in both the current and future rounds of negotiations.
In a single breath, the president recognized the potential for a longer-term agreement between Israel and Palestine as evidence of a region “finally ready to embrace its extraordinary potential…instead of making weapons and missiles, the wealth of this region should flow to schools and medicine, industry, and frankly, the new hot thing: artificial intelligence.” He then moved to an Israel that could soon unleash “incredible prosperity and opportunity,” the likes of which they have never conceived. For Palestinians, he expressed hope for a clearer choice to prosperity, a contrast he defined as concentrating “on building their people up instead of trying to tear Israel down.”
Tactfully, on multiple occasions, Trump praised the four countries—United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—that signed the Abraham Accords during his first administration, underscoring how much “every single one of them benefits unbelievably financially.” The Accords will become a critical part of securing regional peace as the subsequent steps of the 20-point plan are executed, and likely cement the president’s place in history if all major countries in the region sign the covenant. The first author served on the planning team for the Accords between and led the normalization discussions on the ground in Bahrain.
Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war have been subject to Trump’s efforts to leverage promises of economic wealth in exchange for peace. Ukraine ultimately succumbed to the Trump Administration’s assertive diplomacy, signing the U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal after a tense Oval Office meeting in February. Putin saw through Trump’s tactic of dangling the tantalizing prospect of restoring some U.S. companies to the country after over 1,000 global multinational corporations left in protest of Russia’s invasion, catalyzed by our 50-person research team.
But Putin’s wartime economy does not need much incentive to seek relief. Russia is facing dire economic conditions. Financial, production, and human resources have been diverted to the defense sector, causing the civilian economy to struggle with increasing demand. This imbalance—funding Putin’s war by depleting other sectors—has fueled inflation, worsened by ruble depreciation and import costs. As military spending crowds out productive investments, hindering growth and innovation, Russia continues to rapidly exhaust its reserves, with only about $50 billion in liquid assets left, and the budget runs a 2% GDP deficit. Despite a 17% interest rate set by the Central Bank, inflation remains high at over 8% annualized, mainly due to war spending.
Trump recognizes the importance of economic growth to any country, no matter the strongman in charge. He would be wise to exploit the weakness.
Identifying with power and wealth
Trump’s fascination with authoritarian leaders—from Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—is well documented. The vast power and wealth of the monarchies in the Middle East were not overlooked in Trump’s speech as he presented his vision for rebuilding the Gaza Strip, further developing the region, and securing peace.
“I’m going to be meeting, actually, in a little while with the most powerful, the richest nations really, in the world,” he boasted to those in the Knesset. “You’re going to need wealth to rebuild things, and they have wealth like few people have wealth.”
Trump went on to playfully suggest that Netanyahu“needs that kind of economic power.”
The president’s tendency to connect with authoritarians concerns many, particularly as he threatens democratic institutions domestically. He has often bragged about having a “very, very good relationship” with Putin—but has had nothing to show for it so far. The Russian autocrat continues to evade calls for peace, much to Trump’s publicly expressed frustration, and the current moment requires a strong response in support of Ukraine and other liberal nations in Eastern Europe. But there is little doubt that Trump will quickly turn on the charm if it benefits American interests.
President Trump’s speech to the Knesset showcased a leader whose instincts—if properly guided—can lead to major diplomatic breakthroughs, but his approach is risky when those instincts are misdirected. The release of the hostage and the hope for peace in the Middle East show what can be achieved when perceived strength, economic incentives, and a unique rapport come together with aligned objectives. The question is whether Trump can replicate this success in Ukraine, where his affinity for Putin has obscured judgment and delayed essential pressure on Russia’s economy.
As George Washington advised in his 1793 State of the Union address, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effective means of preserving peace.”
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