Enab Baladi – Mohammad Kakhi
On 16 September, Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates announced that a “roadmap” had been reached to resolve the crisis in As-Suwayda (southern Syria). The announcement followed a trilateral meeting in Damascus that brought together Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi, and the United States Special Envoy for Syria, Thomas Barrack.
The meeting built on earlier talks hosted by Amman aimed at consolidating the ceasefire in As-Suwayda and finding solutions to the tensions the province has witnessed in recent months.
According to a statement published on the ministry’s Facebook page, the participants adopted a roadmap affirming that As-Suwayda is an integral part of Syria and that its people are citizens equal in rights and duties. They argued that closing the trust gap between the government and the population requires gradual steps to rebuild confidence and fully reintegrate the province into state institutions.
Among the urgent measures set out:
Inviting the Independent International Commission of Inquiry to investigate events in As-Suwayda. Holding perpetrators of violations accountable under Syrian law. Continuing the entry of humanitarian and medical aid into the province. Deploying qualified police units along the As-Suwayda-Damascus highway to secure movement of people and commerce. Supporting the Red Cross in securing the release of all detainees and kidnapped persons and completing exchange operations. Announcing plans to rebuild damaged villages and properties, with Jordanian and American assistance to secure funding. Strengthening a “national narrative” based on unity and equality, and criminalizing hate speech and sectarianism through new legislation.Between rejecting and implementing the “roadmap”
The “Legal Committee in As-Suwayda” rejected recognizing the roadmap, calling on international parties to support the right of As-Suwayda’s people to self-determination and to refrain from recognizing arrangements “imposed coercively.” It also demanded an independent investigation and international accountability mechanisms, away from the dominance of the Syrian government.
Researcher and political analyst Nawar Shaban believes armed factions in As-Suwayda refuse to engage in any negotiating track that would lead to genuine stability because their interests are tied to the status quo. These formations, he said, include figures involved in arms and drug trafficking and remnants of the former regime, making their interests personal rather than national.
Shaban told Enab Baladi that stability for these factions would mean the end of their “militia” clout and the opening of the door to accountability for past crimes. Therefore, they obstruct steps toward real de-escalation or reconciliation by escalating and unsettling security in the area to preserve a chaotic environment that sustains their presence.
Political analyst Nader al-Khalil argues that the roadmap faces implicit rejection stemming from a long-accumulated lack of trust between local communities and Damascus. As-Suwayda, he noted, has historically suffered from marginalization and unfulfilled promises, leaving parts of society wary of new government initiatives.
According to al-Khalil, heavy-handed security approaches and the absence of meaningful inclusion of local actors in shaping solutions deepen this rejection. Many residents feel the roadmap is being proposed from above without real representation of their interests. Prospects for acceptance remain limited unless the plan translates into practical steps: strengthening local administration within a unified state, improving services, enhancing local participation, and ensuring transparency in implementation.
Despite the Legal Committee’s declared rejection, factions in As-Suwayda have released detainees from Arab tribal communities. Likewise, the Governor of As-Suwayda, Mustafa al-Bakour, said in a 8 October press conference that some local figures have begun to reopen channels of dialogue with the Syrian government.
Residents’ campaign for “self-determination”
On 16 September, residents of As-Suwayda launched a campaign titled “Self-Determination,” gathering 22,000 signatures from the province, according to the local Suwayda24 network, to demand the right of As-Suwayda’s people to decide their own future.
Shaban stresses that the core problem is not residents’ rejection of the roadmap itself, but the presence of “militia forces” that impose control over the province and prevent a real shift toward stability. He said many patriotic figures in As-Suwayda want a better situation but collide with a reality dominated by armed groups that impede people’s movement and even impose restrictions on travel to Damascus without “convincing justification.”
According to Shaban, these groups benefit from prolonging instability because it sustains power networks built on arms and drug trafficking and the protection of cadres linked to former security agencies or external actors. Thus, residents’ true stance is not a rejection of solutions; rather, a barrier exists between them and the state, while armed factions seek to disrupt attempts to implement the roadmap.
Government steps to contain the situation
Following the deployment of Syrian government forces in southern Syria in July, and subsequent security developments, including Israeli strikes targeting the General Staff building and Syrian army vehicles near As-Suwayda, the authorities in Damascus stepped up activity to address the province’s crisis. They allowed the Independent Commission of Inquiry to begin work in As-Suwayda and arrested suspects from the Interior and Defense ministries for alleged violations against civilians.
The government also released 57 people from As-Suwayda who had been held in Adra Prison, in two batches. In his latest press conference, the governor promised the gradual release of all innocent detainees.
According to Shaban, these steps are presented as signals of the government’s desire to keep de-escalation on track and to assert its responsibility as a state charged with safeguarding citizens, while committing to avoid being drawn into large-scale confrontations with armed factions. He noted that the approach aims to protect civilians and foster gradual stabilization, despite attempts by some “militia groups” to thwart it through repeated escalation and provocation.
Challenges to implementation
Despite the complexity of the scene, embodied in the Legal Committee’s rejection, residents’ opposition to the roadmap, and bleak near-term prospects, indicators on the ground point to a push toward implementing its provisions to reach a comprehensive resolution.
By contrast, Israel is trying to keep As-Suwayda in play. According to Reuters on 26 September, efforts to reach a security agreement between Syria and Israel hit a last-minute “snag” over Israel’s demand to be allowed to open a “humanitarian corridor” into As-Suwayda in southern Syria. The agency quoted four sources familiar with the talks saying the agreement faltered due to Israel’s renewed demand for a corridor from Israel into As-Suwayda.
Shaban sees the core difficulty as the absence of a local party genuinely willing to engage in a solution process, amid the dominance of forces that profit from the status quo and have turned it into a permanent source of power.
Meanwhile, al-Khalil believes the roadmap faces a set of complex obstacles: accumulated mistrust between local populations and central authorities; excessive securitization; the lack of real inclusion of local actors in drafting and implementing solutions; weak transparency and accountability; the absence of guarantees that all sides will abide by the agreement; and deteriorating living conditions that fuel popular rejection. He argues the roadmap’s success depends on confidence-building, community participation, improved services and security, and international or regional guarantees to prevent backtracking. A comprehensive national dialogue remains an urgent need that should extend beyond As-Suwayda to include all Syrian regions.
A trust deficit and local actors’ intransigence stall As-Suwayda’s roadmap Enab Baladi.
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