With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have moved ahead of the fading Baltimore Ravens and now have the best odds of winning the AFC North. The injury-ravaged 1-4 Ravens have fallen to 10th in terms of playoff odds, with the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Steelers on top.
In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are the most likely to make the playoffs, followed by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles 68.3% at New York Giants 31.7%
The Eagles (4-1) have won 19 of their last 23 games against the Giants (1-4) dating back to the 2014 season (including the postseason). Philadelphia’s 19-4 record against the Giants is tied for the third-best record by any team against a divisional opponent over this span.
Sunday Predictions
Denver Broncos 68.3% vs. New York Jets 31.7% (in London)
This will be the Broncos’ (3-2) first game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the Jets (0-5) are 0-2 all time there. Both teams are .500 all time in international games (Jets, 2-2; Broncos, 1-1).
Los Angeles Rams 68.1% at Baltimore Ravens 31.9%
The Ravens (1-4) are 5-1 against the Rams (3-2) since 2007. The Rams have had a starting quarterback throw for 200 or more passing yards in their last three matchups against the Ravens, their longest streak of this kind against the Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys 57.0%, at Carolina Panthers 43.0%
The Cowboys (2-2-1) have won three straight games against the Panthers (2-3), scoring at least 30 points in all three wins. The last time Dallas scored 30 or more points in four straight games against a single opponent was a four-game run against the Giants from 2018-20.
at Indianapolis Colts 70.9%, Arizona Cardinals 29.1%
This will be the first head coaching matchup between former Eagles’ coordinators Jonathan Gannon and Shane Steichen. The Cardinals (2-3) are 5-6 in interconference matchups under Gannon while the Colts (4-1) are 3-8 under Steichen.
at Jacksonville Jaguars 54.6%, Seattle Seahawks 45.4%
This will be Seattle’s first trip to Jacksonville since Week 14 of the 2017 season (a 30-24 Jags win). The Jaguars (4-1) have won three of five home games against the Seahawks (3-2), scoring at least 20 points in all five games.
Los Angeles Chargers 60.8%, at Miami Dolphins 39.2%
The Dolphins (1-4) are 6-3 against the Chargers (3-2) since 2013, including a win in their most recent matchup in 2023 Week 1. In that game, the Chargers allowed 466 net passing yards, the most they have allowed in a single game since at least 1950.
at Pittsburgh Steelers 67.3%, Cleveland Browns 32.7%
The Steelers (3-1) have won 21 consecutive home games against the Browns (1-4), the longest active home winning streak by any team versus any single opponent in the NFL. It is the longest such winning streak by the Steelers versus any single opponent all time.
New England Patriots 57.8%, at New Orleans Saints 42.2%
This is New England’s first trip to the Superdome since Tom Brady and Drew Brees combined for 803 passing yards and five touchdowns in Week 2 of the 2017 season. The Patriots (3-2) are 5-1 all time in New Orleans (1-4), the team’s best road record versus any single opponent.
at Las Vegas Raiders 64.1%, Tennessee Titans 35.9%
The Raiders (1-4) are 12-7 all time at home against the Titans (1-4), but they’ve lost each of thelast two home meetings. A Titans win would match their longest road winning streak against the Raiders after winning their first three on the road in this matchup.
at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 61.5%, San Francisco 49ers 38.5%
The 49ers (4-1) are 21-6 all time against the Buccaneers (4-1), the best record between any two current teams in the NFL (minimum 25 matchups).
at Green Bay Packers 86.5%, Cincinnati Bengals 13.5%
Each of the last two meetings between the Bengals (2-3) and Packers (2-1-1) have gone to overtime with Green Bay winning by three points in each game. It’s the only time in Packers history that the team has won consecutive games against a team with each win coming in OT.
Sunday Night Football Prediction
Detroit Lions 44.5% at Kansas City Chiefs 55.5%
The Chiefs (2-3) are 6-2 at home against the Lions (4-1), winning these games by an average margin of 16.3 points. Both of Detroit’s road wins in Kansas City have come by one point, including the last matchup between these teams in Week 1 of the 2023 season.
Monday Night Football Prediction
Buffalo Bills 57.3%, at Atlanta Falcons 42.7%
Heading into their matchups with the 2-2 Falcons, the Bills (4-1) are 13-3 against NFC opponents since 2022, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Ravens. The Bills are averaging a league-high 32.0 points in those matchups.
at Washington Commanders 65.4%, Chicago Bears 34.6%
The Commanders (3-2) are 8-2 against the Bears (2-2) over the last 20 years, their best record against any NFC opponent over that span. Washington and Chicago had seven of their 10 meetings since 2005 decided by one possession or less and the Commanders have won them all.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
NFL Predictions: Which Teams Are Projected to Win in Week 6? Opta Analyst.
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