There was always a suspicion Australia’s much-vaunted, ageing pace attack might run out of steam ahead of this winter’s Ashes. Now it has come to pass with the news that captain Pat Cummins is in danger of missing the entire series.
At 32, Cummins is the youngest of the fast-bowling triumvirate that includes the injury-prone Josh Hazlewood, 34, and 35-year-old Mitchell Starc. Together, they are an imposing proposition to face, perhaps the best pace attack we’ve seen in the past 20 years.
But losing Cummins, their leader on the field and with ball in hand, for any part of the Ashes would be a hammer blow to Australia.
That nightmare scenario for the hosts drew closer overnight with the bombshell news that Cummins is almost certain to miss the opening Test in Perth with the back issue that has not seen him play any cricket since July.
The latest set of scans showed some healing of the stress fracture but not enough to allow him to return to bowling. Estimates Down Under suggest he needs between four and six weeks returning to full fitness before he can play Test cricket. The Ashes start six weeks on Friday.
Although he hasn’t officially been ruled out of the first Test, Cummins has little chance of playing in Perth and the best-case scenario for Australia is that he will return at some point late in the series.
Cummins has suffered another setback (Photo: Getty)This means Scott Boland is in line to start the series. At 36, he’s also no spring chicken and although he stunned England by taking six for seven on his Test debut at Melbourne in December 2021, Ben Stokes’ team handled him much better in the 2023 home Ashes, when Boland took two wickets at 115.50 across two Tests.
He will be harder to face in Australian conditions. Yet the element of surprise that shocked England four years ago has now gone.
What’s most worrying for Australia is the fact that their two fit frontline bowlers – Hazlewood and Starc – are also unlikely to be able to play all five Tests.
Hazlewood was restricted to two Tests against India at home last year because of a side strain. In the 2021-22 Ashes he played just one after sustaining another side strain in the series opener at Brisbane.
Starc is more durable but had to fight through the pain of a side issue to get through that India series during the last Australian summer and missed this year’s Champions Trophy in Pakistan with an ankle problem.
There is little depth in Australia’s fast-bowling ranks, with Michael Neser, a 35-year-old who has played two Tests, and the uncapped Brendan Doggett and Sean Abbott the options in reserve. Both Doggett and Abbott are both over the age of 30 as well.
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England have their own injury issues, notably Stokes and Mark Wood, who are both building up their fitness ahead of England’s arrival in Australia next month.
Stokes, who missed the final Test against India this summer with a shoulder injury, returned to training last month and is expected to be fit to play from the start of the Ashes. His bowling workloads might take time to build up, but England are confident their captain will be able to play as a full all-rounder.
Wood is more complicated. The 35-year-old has not played since February and has suffered a succession of setbacks since undergoing knee surgery in March.
England, though, are hopeful he will be fit for the first Ashes Test.
Even if Wood’s participation is limited, England have a strong group of fast bowlers that includes Jofra Archer, Brydon Carse, Gus Atkinson and Josh Tongue.
It means if the prognosis on Cummins is as bad as most in Australia think, England’s Ashes chances have just received perhaps the biggest boost they could have hoped for.
Australia’s top-order batting is also in chaos, with 38-year-old opener Usman Khawaja clinging on, skittish 20-year-old Sam Konstas in line for a recall and fish-out-of-water all-rounder Cameron Green potentially remaining at No 3.
It might be going too far to say England could arrive in Australia next month as favourites to win the series and claim the urn for the first time in a decade. But it feels like the chances of that happening have exponentially increased over the past 24 hours.
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