Tottenham‘s bright start to life under Thomas Frank has lost momentum already. Is there any reason to worry about the poor performances?
On the face of things, there should be plenty for Tottenham to be happy about.
Having just a few months ago ended their trophy drought, they are back in the Champions League, and following Tuesday’s 2-2 draw at Bodø/Glimt, they have four points from their first two games in Europe’s biggest competition. They are also fourth in the Premier League, just four points off leaders Liverpool, and have lost only once in all competitions under new manager Thomas Frank.
There have also been a couple of particularly encouraging displays against top teams, firstly in the UEFA Super Cup against European champions PSG, a game that Spurs came within minutes of winning, and then in the 2-0 win at Manchester City in the Premier League.
But they are also very clearly a work in progress. They put in a dreadful display in their only defeat – a 1-0 loss at home to Bournemouth in late August – and the 1-1 draw against Wolves at the weekend was a miserable affair in which they only rescued a point with a 94th-minute João Palhinha equaliser. The full-time whistle in both games was greeted, perhaps unreasonably, by boos from sections of the home fans.
Then, at Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League in midweek, Spurs put in what might have been the limpest display of the lot.
They deserve some credit for fighting back from 2-0 down in tough conditions to rescue a point. It’s the third time in their last four games Spurs have come from behind late on to draw, so there’s clearly some fight in them.
But this display was so lacking in cohesion that it was impossible to recognise any game plan. Tottenham didn’t keep the ball well at all and, not for the first time this season, created little of note.
Also not for the first time this season, Spurs got more from a game than they deserved to get.
There was always going to be a lot of work to be done to shore this team up at the back while maintaining their attacking threat after the chaos of last season under Ange Postecoglou, when they finished 17th in the Premier League.
There are further mitigating circumstances, too, not least in that they have a few significant injuries to attacking players in James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski and, after the news this week that his ankle injury requires surgery, Dominic Solanke. Meanwhile, Xavi Simons and Randal Kolo Muani, who could both become integral to this team, are still finding their feet at their new club.
But after a bright start under Frank, when his side sandwiched the PSG and City games with a 3-0 win over Burnley, things have stagnated somewhat. The Bodø/Glimt performance was just the latest in a string of below-par displays. Domestically, their lofty league position doesn’t tell the whole story.
Opta’s expected points table arguably gives a better (though still not perfect) reflection of performances, using expected goals data to show how matches ‘should’ have finished based on the quality and quantity of the chances each team created. It then simulates every game 10,000 times and divides up the expected points (xPts) based on how often each team wins, loses and draws each game.
It’s not perfect because it doesn’t take into account things like game state, when a team might sit back and create little if they are in the lead, or dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to a shot, because those moves don’t have an xG value.
But when used over a long period, this model can help show which teams’ performances have deserved the points they have actually got, and which teams have been a little bit fortunate.
It appears that Spurs might fall into the latter category.
According to the current xPts table, Tottenham – who are fourth in the league, remember – deserve to be 12th. Along with Sunderland (actually 5th, but deserve to be 13th), that’s the biggest negative difference between any team’s actual and deserved position.
The suggestion here is that Spurs’ performances have been worthy of far fewer than the 11 points they’ve actually picked up. In the main, that is because they simply haven’t created enough going forward. In Norway on Tuesday, it was much the same, too, with Spurs battered on xG and only really showing any signs of life after they’d gone behind.
In the Premier League this season, Frank’s side rank 11th for expected goals, with 7.0 xG. They have outscored their xG by more than any other team in the division (+3.0), suggesting their goalscoring either isn’t sustainable or it’s being maintained by world-class, xG-busting finishers.
But their top three scorers in the league are Richarlison, Brennan Johnson and Palhinha, none of whom are exceptional finishers, which suggests their overperformance in front of goal probably won’t continue at its current rate.
In all competitions, their top scorer is ‘own goals’ (four goals), just ahead of centre-back Micky van de Ven, who is level on three goals with Richarlison, further suggesting that what they’re doing isn’t sustainable.
Frank always put a great deal of emphasis on set-pieces at Brentford, and he is doing the same at Spurs. The increased thought going into Tottenham’s approach at dead balls this season has been noticeable; now, just about every throw-in beyond the edge of the 18-yard box is launched into the middle, something they never did under Postecoglou.
Tottenham’s proficiency at dead balls is a useful improvement, with Van de Ven’s header from a Pedro Porro cross following a free-kick getting them back into the game at Bodø/Glimt. However, they appear a little too reliant on set-pieces, and for a few games now, have caused their opponents little trouble in open play.
They have become much more solid at the back, allowing their opponents an average of 1.2 xG per game in Premier League games, which is almost 30% down on the 1.7 xG against per game they averaged in both seasons under Postecoglou. But there has been a sacrifice at the other end. Spurs look unable to balance a little more defensive security with attacking threat.
In open play, they are averaging just under 0.9 xG per game, which is the eighth-best rate in the Premier League this season. But given they have had the fifth-easiest start to the season according to the Opta Power Ranking of each team’s opponents so far in 2025-26, perhaps they should be creating more.
In Europe, things have been little better, but they do have the excuse of playing some good teams. Bodø/Glimt is a tricky place to go. They are no pushovers, especially on home soil – or home artificial turf, more accurately – up in the Arctic Circle.
But given how poor Spurs were in possession and the fact that this came just days after they had been equally bad against Wolves, the conditions are not a sufficient excuse. Once again, they struggled terribly to progress play through the centre of the pitch.
Against Wolves, it had appeared as though Palhinha was the issue. The former Fulham man is an elite ball-winner and, following his summer arrival, he is a significant part of the reason that Tottenham have improved defensively under Frank.
But when it comes to his passing, he is decidedly lacking in quality. At the weekend, the only starter on either side to complete a lower proportion of their passes (68.8%) was Spurs’ centre-forward Richarlison (55.6%).
And it wasn’t as though he was being particularly adventurous. He only played two vertical passes all game, and neither of them found a teammate. Most of his passes were short balls played sideways. He completed only two line-breaking passes all game.
And both of them were switches of play; helpful passes, but played under little pressure and relatively easy passes to complete. He offered nothing in the way of incisive passing.
Palhinha proved his worth with his late equaliser, but his performance with the ball raised questions as to whether he should be used in games where Spurs are going to dominate possession. There’s no doubt he added value in both the PSG and City games, but was he really needed for 90 minutes against Wolves?
The Portuguese midfielder was benched for the Champions League trip to Scandinavia, but the way the three central midfielders played provided little evidence to back up the idea that he is the main problem.
Between them, Rodrigo Bentancur (three), Pape Sarr (one) and Lucas Bergvall (none) completed just four line-breaking passes in a combined 211 minutes on the pitch.
Richarlison was a bystander in attack. He received just seven passes all evening, and five of them were from defenders Porro and Kevin Danso, or goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario. The nine midfielders or wingers who were involved in Norway found Richarlison with a pass just twice all night.
Perhaps the plan is just to go around the outside of their opponents; to get the ball down the wings, create overloads and put crosses into the box. Perhaps the midfielders are told specifically not to pass the ball to the centre-forward.
But if that is the case, they need wingers on both sides who can – and do – beat their opponent consistently. At Bodø/Glimt, starting wingers Johnson and Wilson Odobert completed one successful dribble between them. Neither of them created a single chance.
In this regard, they are already far too reliant on the individual skill of Mohammed Kudus (five successful dribbles and one chance created in 31 minutes off the bench).
These are early days in Frank’s reign and, clearly, it isn’t time to press the panic button just yet. Spurs might deserve to have less than they do, but the facts remain that they are fourth in the Premier League and four points from two Champions League games is a very good return. It’s more than Liverpool, Chelsea or Atlético Madrid have, for example. There might be reason to start getting worried if they weren’t getting results while also putting in underwhelming performances, but for now, that isn’t the case.
If results dip, though, and Spurs slip towards the position that the expected points table suggests they should be in, discontent could start to creep in. Frank needs to find a way to get his team looking far more comfortable moving the ball up the pitch, and fast.
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Fourth in the Premier League, Unbeaten in the Champions League, But Thomas Frank’s Tottenham Are Flattering to Deceive Opta Analyst.
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