To many across the world, the phrase “Donald Trump has a plan” either sounds like an oxymoron or will cause a sudden rush of dread.
Hearing that the latest Trump plan is a 21-part peace proposal for the Israel-Gaza conflict is unlikely to ease that unrest, given his previous ideas have involved ethnically cleansing the strip of its Palestinian population, and replacing them with a luxury resort complex.
Anyone taking a look at this plan in that context, though, is likely to be pleasantly surprised. Especially when compared with what has come before in recent history, Trump’s new plan is relatively reasonable.
Any references to deporting Palestinians have been scrubbed. The UN and Red Cross would be allowed to administer the delivery of aid once again. There is an eventual role for the Palestinian Authority imagined in the proposals. Hamas fighters would, in theory, be allowed to depart Gaza without violence.
This is the nearest thing to a broadly internationally acceptable peace plan that has been proposed for the region since Donald Trump retook the presidency, which in theory at least should be an overwhelmingly promising sign. Israel receives huge financial and military support for the US, and Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu like to speak warmly of both their friendship and their political alliance. If anyone should be able to make Netanyahu agree to a deal in this form, it should be Trump.
The problem is that Trump has a terrible track record of converting what he thinks are warm relations with foreign leaders into diplomatic results for either America or for the world. Trump routinely confuses flattery from world leaders – including those traditionally regarded as adversaries of America – with sincere friendship. And he doesn’t seem to learn when they fail to deliver.
In his first term, Trump handed Kim Jong-un a huge symbolic moment when the two of them met and shook hands, but this led to no material changes in how North Korea interacted with the world. Trump believes he has a “great” relationship with Xi Jinping, but has ended up in a fruitless tariff war with China all the same.
Most visibly, Trump has failed entirely to convert what he seems truly to believe is a friendship with Vladimir Putin into any kind of peace settlement for Ukraine – something the President complained about publicly from the lectern of the UN General Assembly.
What would in other circumstances be a comedic series of errors and mistranslations led to Trump’s negotiator Steve Witkoff inviting Putin to meet Trump in Alaska, after Witkoff reportedly thought he had secured a breakthrough on land concessions in eastern Ukraine. Not only did nothing come of that summit, but it was followed by some of the fiercest bombing of Ukrainian cities and civilians since the beginning of the conflict.
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There is every reason to believe that Netanyahu is set to repeat Trump’s humiliations on the world stage once again with this plan. Actually dragging opposing parties into a peace deal involves endless hours of mind-numbingly detailed and intricate negotiation behind the scenes to hammer out the details.
This requires a detailed knowledge of the domestic politics of each leader, why their various red lines exist, and how they might be overcome. Trump himself barely grasps the basics of these conflicts, let alone the details, and he has fired almost anyone who might be able to advise him appropriately.
Netanyahu has powerful political and personal reasons to resist any peace deal, let alone a reasonable one. He is in a fragile political coalition with far-right extremists who wish to permanently end the prospect of a Palestinian state, and who see victory in their sights – they would topple his government over such a deal.
If Netanyahu’s government somehow survived their departure, he would also face having to launch the inquiries and commissions he had long promised into the failings that led to Hamas’s appalling attacks and massacres of 7 October 2023 – investigations he has said cannot start until the conflict is over.
More than his political future would be at stake: Netanyahu is five years into a corruption trial over gifts of champagne and cigars that could see him jailed for years, if convicted. His future freedom is tied to his political power. Even if Netanyahu personally wanted a way to end this conflict, he has lots of reasons to continue the war.
Trump doesn’t have anything to offer Netanyahu to address those concerns, and absent that, the Israeli leader has proven willing to embarrass or even humiliate the US in recent history by undermining peace plans – sometimes spectacularly, through missile strikes, and sometimes simply diplomatically.
There is every risk that Netanyahu is about to do that yet again. Sometimes, having a half-decent plan just isn’t enough.
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