We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the City Ground with our Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland prediction and preview. Can Forest earn their first win under Ange Postecoglou?
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland: The Key Stats
Despite their slow start, the Opta supercomputer has Nottingham Forest as strong favourites in this match, with Ange Postecoglou’s men earning all three points in 61.5% of simulations. Nottingham Forest have lost four of their last six Premier League home games (W1 D1), including a 3-0 loss to West Ham last time out. It’s as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 20 at the City Ground (W10 D6). Sunderland have eight points from their five Premier League games this season (W2 D2 L1) – only in 2009-10 (9) have they ever had more at this stage of a campaign in the competition.Nottingham Forest host surprise package Sunderland at the City Ground on Saturday evening. Ange Postecoglou is backed by the Opta supercomputer to earn his first win with Forest, despite an impressive start by their newly-promoted opponents.
Postecoglou’s first few weeks at Forest haven’t gone too smoothly in truth. He can be absolved of any blame for their defeat away to Arsenal only four days after he was appointed, but his side have let slip a lead in three consecutive games against Swansea City, Burnley and Real Betis since.
They came close to kicking off their UEFA Europa League campaign off with a win at Betis as they led 2-1, but former Manchester United winger Antony equalised for the La Liga side with five minutes remaining on Wednesday.
As well as that setback, Postecoglou is winless in his last nine Premier League games, stretching back to his time with Tottenham Hotspur, which is his longest winless run as a top-flight manager.
There is therefore additional pressure to earn his first victory when Forest welcome Sunderland to the City Ground, and although our supercomputer is confident Forest will pick up all three points, the Black Cats are not to be taken lightly.
Sunderland spent a great deal of money over the summer, and it’s looking like money well spent so far. Regis Le Bris’ side sit seventh in the table heading into Matchday 6, and have only been beaten once.
The Black Cats drew 1-1 at home with Aston Villa last weekend despite trailing in a second half that they had to play with 10 men, with left-back Reinildo sent off in the 33rd minute of the game for kicking out at Matty Cash.
With eight points accrued, Sunderland have had only more points at this stage of a Premier League campaign in 2009-10 (9), when they ultimately finished 13th under Steve Bruce.
The data tells us that there could be goals in the second half of this game. Sunderland are one of just two sides yet to score in the first half of their Premier League games this season, along with Aston Villa. However, only league leaders Liverpool (7) have netted more goals in the second half of games than the Black Cats (6).
Meanwhile, Forest have conceded six second-half goals this season, a tally only surpassed by West Ham (9).
Sunderland will be expected to sit deep in this match and that should allow for lots of time in possession for the metronomic Elliot Anderson, who doesn’t need an excuse to unlock a defence.
Only Bruno Fernandes (8) has made more line-breaking passes that have led to a shot than Anderson (7) in the Premier League this season. As a former Newcastle United player, Anderson may even have extra motivation for this one.
Forest won’t be able to name their preferred backline, with Ola Aina out until January and Murillo a doubt with a lingering knock.
In-form striker Igor Jesus could force his way into the starting XI in place of Chris Wood after the Brazilian scored a brace in consecutive starts against Swansea and Betis.
Sunderland, meanwhile, will be without the suspended Reinildo, while Habib Diarra has undergone groin surgery and is scheduled to be out of action until December.
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland Head-to-Head
Sunderland have won five of their last seven league games against Nottingham Forest (L2), with this their first meeting since a 1-0 Championship victory in December 2017 under Chris Coleman.
Top-flight meetings are rare between these two. In fact, this will be the first Premier League meeting between them since the 1996-97 season, when the Tricky Trees lost 4-1 at home and drew 1-1 away.
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland Prediction
The Opta supercomputer simulated the outcome of this game 10,000 times, with Nottingham Forest victorious in 61.5% of them.
Sunderland came away with an impressive away win in just 18.2%, while a draw occurred in the remaining 20.3%.
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland Predicted Lineups
Nottingham Forest: Mats Selz, Neco Williams, Nikola Milenkovic, Morato, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Ibrahim Sangaré, Douglas Luiz, Dan Ndoye, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Morgan Gibbs-White, Chris Wood.
Head Coach: Ange Postecoglou
Sunderland: Robin Roefs, Trai Hume, Nordi Mukiele, Omar Alderete, Harrison Jones, Granit Xhaka, Chris Rigg, Noah Sadiki, Chemsdine Talbi, Enzo Le Fée, Wilson Isidor.
Head Coach: Regis Le Bris
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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