On Thursday, during a press conference with British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, Donald Trump said he wanted the US to reclaim the Bagram air base in Afghanistan.
The Soviet-built airstrip was the main base for American forces in the mountainous South Asian nation following the attacks of 9/11. They withdrew in 2021, with the Taliban taking over shortly after.
Later, aboard Air Force One, the US president said the base should “never have been given back”.
Analysts told The i Paper that Trump’s comments could be seen as a way of intimidating China and other world leaders. But one described the scheme as a “security nightmare”.
Dr Georg Loefflmann, an assistant professor in US foreign policy at Queen Mary University of London, said Trump likely views the base as a “centrepiece of US military power”.
“It’s one of the most powerful bases in the world in terms of runway strength and length,” he said. “You can land anything on there. You can land a planet on top of it.”
Dr Loefflmann told The i Paper that “one of the things about Bagram air base is it was able to host very large bomber planes, which could all land on the runway.
“There’s also a certain geopolitical proximity toward China, so there are strategic benefits to the base in itself.”
US relations with China
The pragmatic location of the base, which sits just 40km north of Kabul, was also highlighted by Trump on Thursday.
“One of the reasons we want that base is, as you know, it’s an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons,” Trump said. “So a lot of things are happening.”
Trump’s comments on Bagram came during a joint press conference with Starmer during the state visit (Photo: Andre Caballero-Reynolds/AFP)But despite its unique position, Dr Loefflmann said that intelligence provided from the base on foreign threats would be limited, and that reclaiming it would represent a more symbolic power rivalry between the US and China.
“The US already has a fairly good idea about Chinese military modernisation including nuclear weapons,” Dr Loefflmann said.
“We’re moving into a new Cold War-style confrontation between these two super powers and the US is certainly looking for means to essentially contain China,” he said.
The US has a big military presence in Korea and Japan “so potential having one in central Asia would be part of that,” he added.
Mike Tappin, honorary fellow at Keele University and co-author of American Politics Today, said the location of the base could be used as a way of trying to keep nearby countries in line.
“Could Trump be concerned about the closeness of India and China at the recent meetings that they had?” he asked.
Tappin also said that the site could be a useful base for carrying out modern warfare tactics such as controlling airborne drones, which have come to prominence during the Russia-Ukraine war.
“There’s a phrase I used to use when I played semi-professional football which was, ‘Get your retaliation in first,’ which is what Trump is doing,” he said. “In more diplomatic terms, he is saying: ‘Don’t mess with us.’”
American and British soldiers were stationed in the Afghanistan base from 2001 to 2021 (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty)A security nightmare
Afghanistan has said on record that it is not open to any deals for a reintroduced US military presence in the country, with Taliban foreign ministry official Zakir Jalaly saying that Kabul wants to have relations with the US based on “mutual respect and common interests”.
He added: “The Afghans have not accepted a military presence in history, and this possibility was completely rejected during the Doha talks and agreement, but the door is open for further interaction.”
During his first term in office, Trump set the terms for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan by negotiating a deal with the Taliban.
The 20-year conflict came to an end in disquieting fashion under President Joe Biden, with the US-backed Afghan government quickly collapsing.
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While Trump described Biden’s handling of the agreement as “gross incompetence”, the Republican’s recent comments beg the question of why he didn’t put on record his desires to hold onto Bagram when the Doha agreement was being drafted.
Dr Loefflmann said keeping the airbase following the agreement would have been in contradiction to the core intention of the negotiations – for US troops to withdraw from Afghanistan.
He added: “I don’t see a realistic proposal to retake this airbase – putting US soldiers in a hostile sea of Taliban soldiers would be a security nightmare.
“Frankly, I think this is just another in a long line of hobby horses for this president,” he added.
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