The fact there are not expected to be any surprises when England’s Ashes squad is announced next week is probably a fair barometer of their chances in Australia this winter.
A settled group that is set to include a full complement of fast bowlers, including injury-hit Mark Wood, and captain Ben Stokes, back in training after the shoulder injury that prematurely ended his Test summer, have a chance.
They are not favourites – what England side Down Under ever are? – but they have a decent shot at being competitive and, if luck and the fitness of key players hold, regaining the urn after 10 barren years.
A 17-man squad is expected to include eight batsmen, including all-rounder Stokes and wicketkeeper Jamie Smith, seven seam bowlers and two spinners.
“I think it’s a pretty easy squad to pick really,” head coach Brendon McCullum said last weekend.
Josh Hull has impressed for Leicestershire in the County Championship (Photo: Getty)And he is right. As McCullum admitted, the only real areas of debate surround the second spinner and the identity of the seventh seamer.
Even those calls aren’t expected to throw up any left-field choices. Rehan Ahmed is the clear favourite to be the second spinner behind Shoaib Bashir ahead of Liam Dawson and Jack Leach, whose nine wickets for Somerset in the County Championship this week are not thought to be enough to move the dial in his favour.
The seventh seamer is more interesting. Up until his horrendous international debut in an ODI against South Africa in Leeds at the start of the month, when he conceded 76 runs from seven overs, Sonny Baker had a chance of being an Ashes bolter. He’s not now.
The others in the mix are Josh Hull, who has taken 16 Championship wickets at 31 this summer for a Leicestershire team who romped to the Division Two title, Sam Cook and Chris Woakes.
Both Cook and Woakes are currently injured but are expected to be fit enough to be considered for selection.
Cook, who broke a thumb playing in the Hundred, is not expected to return before the season ends next week. Woakes is battling back from the shoulder injury sustained in the final Test against India seven weeks ago and memorably saw him come out to bat in a sling on the final day.
If fit, the experience of Woakes is likely to go in his favour. The 36-year-old veteran of two previous Ashes tours should be named in the 17 alongside a strong group of fast bowlers in Jofra Archer, Wood, Josh Tongue, Brydon Carse, Gus Atkinson and Matthew Potts.
square CRICKET England are playing a dangerous game with Ollie Pope
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The batters pick themselves, with Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Stokes and Smith set in stone.
The only question there is who bats at No 3 in Australia, with Pope, already designated as wicketkeeping cover if anything happens to Smith, fighting it out with Bethell.
Kicking that decision down the road until the eve of the Ashes is the only thing that might have a destabilising effect on England.
Otherwise, everything is very settled and, weirdly, calm ahead of the series.
That might change before the first Test in Perth on 21 November if there are any injury setbacks, with some of the squad expected to travel to New Zealand for the white-ball tour that precedes the Ashes.
For now, though, things are looking good for England.
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