Why Ousmane Dembélé Is Favourite to Win the 2025 Ballon d’Or ...Middle East

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Why Ousmane Dembélé Is Favourite to Win the 2025 Ballon d’Or

Paris Saint-Germain star Ousmane Dembélé is the bookies’ favourite to win the prestigious men’s Ballon d’Or on Monday. We look at his data to see why that is.

Rightly or wrongly, the Ballon d’Or is a big deal to many.

    It is broadly seen as the most prestigious individual award in football, all at the whim of select journalists from FIFA’s top-100 ranked countries.

    The awards – as it’s not just the Ballon d’Or up for grabs – this year are based on performances between 1 August 2024 and 13 July 2025, a period that covers the FIFA Club World Cup.

    There were some astonishing performances in that time. Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah recorded more goal involvements than anyone from Europe’s top five leagues in all competitions; Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé scored more goals than anyone else; Lamine Yamal and Raphinha both shone for La Liga winners Barcelona; and numerous players from European champions Paris Saint-Germain could conceivably be seen as deserving winners of the men’s Ballon d’Or in 2025.

    And according to the bookies, one of them, Ousmane Dembélé, is the strong favourite to be handed the big shiny gold football trophy at Monday’s ceremony in Paris.

    PSG won a Ligue 1, Coupe de France and UEFA Champions League treble in 2024-25. They lifted their first ever European Cup/Champions League with a historic 5-0 thrashing of Inter in the final, before also reaching the final of the Club World Cup.

    Dembélé was a central part of their success, scoring 33 goals and recording 13 assists in all competitions. Of players from Europe’s top five leagues, only Mbappé (36) and Robert Lewandowski (35) scored more than his 32 non-penalty goals.

    The 28-year-old actually had a fairly quiet start to the campaign, though. He only scored five goals in 18 games prior to 15 December 2024, though his eight goals and five assists in total by the end of the year was still more goal involvements than any of his PSG teammates.

    As 2024 became 2025, though, it wasn’t only fireworks that exploded; Dembélé did too.

    From 1 January up to the Champions League final, he scored 25 goals and recorded eight assists in 29 games in all competitions. Of players from Europe’s top five leagues, no-one had as many as his 33 goal involvements, while only Mbappé scored more in that time (29 goals).

    He scored in each of his first six games of 2025, including back-to-back hat-tricks in the same week against Stuttgart in the Champions League and Brest in Ligue 1. He found the net 24 times in his first 20 games of 2025 in a phenomenal run of form.

    That scoring form eventually fizzled out; he only scored once in his last 10 games of the season. Dembélé had remained an integral part of Luis Enrique’s side, though, with six assists in those last 10 games, including two in the Champions League final. That made him the first player to to set up two goals in a UCL final since Marcelo for Real Madrid in 2018.

    He played a huge role in PSG’s Champions League success. His 14 goal involvements (8 goals, 6 assists) wasn’t just five more than any of his teammates, but it was the most ever by a player for a French team in a UCL campaign. Dembélé also created the joint-most chances in the competition (38) along with Raphinha.

    That said, he did only score two of PSG’s 14 goals from the last 16 onwards. They were, though, important winners in games away to Liverpool and Arsenal.

    Dembélé only played four times at the Club World Cup due to injury but still managed to come away with two goals and an assist as PSG finished as runners-up to Chelsea in the United States.

    He was, of course, also influential as PSG cruised to another Ligue 1 title. Dembélé’s 27 goal involvements (21 goals, 7 assists) was the most in the French top flight in 2024-25, while his 20 non-penalty goals was at least six more than any other player.

    It was an eyebrow-raising season for Dembélé, not just because of his numbers, but because of how much higher they were than previous years. His 46 goal involvements in 2024-25 was more than twice his previous best in a single campaign (22 in 2018-19 for Barcelona), while his 33 goals was at least 19 more than he’d managed before (14 in 2018-19). He scored just six times in 42 games across the 2023-24 season, so this run of goals was very much unexpected.

    It wasn’t just his goals that led to a strong argument for Dembélé being the favourite for the men’s Ballon d’Or, though. Despite spending more than half of his minutes (56%) in an unfamiliar role of striker, there were numerous areas where he compared favourably with other strikers from Europe’s top five leagues in 2024-25.

    Dembélé was in the 100th percentile for chances created and progressive carries, while he was in the 99th percentile for shots, touches and touches in the opposition’s box.

    To drill into his numbers further, in all competitions on a per-90 basis (minimum 1,000 minutes played), Dembélé led all forwards from Europe’s top five leagues for non-penalty goals (1.07) and shots (5.3), was 14th for progressive carries (10.3), 15th for touches (65.5) and seventh for touches in the opposition’s box (8.8).

    He was also heavily involved in PSG’s general attacking play, despite their embarrassment of riches in forward areas. His 9.6 attacking sequence involvements per 90 in Ligue 1 last season was the most of any player in Europe’s top five leagues (attacking sequence involvements are made up of shots, chances created and involvements in the build-up to a shot).

    Dembélé was also the most influential player in the Champions League, with his 10.4 attacking sequence involvements per 90 more than anyone else in the competition (min. 500 mins).

    Being the best player for the best team is often enough to win the Ballon d’Or, but then again it would be fair to say that PSG’s success was based on the fact they had so many players who could make the difference.

    There will also be those who dispute that Dembélé was even PSG’s best player. Achraf Hakimi, Vitinha and Fabián Ruiz were outstanding throughout the campaign, while Désiré Doué shone in the latter stages of the Champions League, especially when scoring twice in the final.

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    As mentioned, there are also valid arguments for other players to pip Dembélé to the men’s prize. Salah recorded the most goal involvements of anyone in Europe (57), and though it has been suggested the Egyptian can’t win it because Liverpool were eliminated from the Champions League at the last-16 stage, Rodri won the Ballon d’Or last season despite Manchester City going out in the quarter-finals of the UCL the previous year, though admittedly he did win Euro 2024 with Spain.

    Raphinha is another strong candidate as he was only one goal involvement behind Salah (56), while his Barcelona teammate Yamal also had an excellent campaign, having a hand in 39 goals (18 goals, 21 assists); only Salah (23) and Raphinha (22) set up more goals than the teenager. Yamal also completed at least 100 more dribbles than any other player from Europe’s top five leagues last season (244).

    Then you have Dembélé’s France teammate Mbappé, who scored more goals than anyone else from Europe’s top five leagues in all competitions (43) despite Real Madrid only winning the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Intercontinental Cup last season.

    However, Mbappé did recently tell TF1 that he believes Dembélé should win it this year, saying: “If it were up to me, I’d deliver it to his house.”

    Last season, PSG boss Luis Enrique said: “Back when I played PlayStation as a kid, [Dembélé] was the kind of player you’d choose when you needed someone to change the game.”

    Some of Dembélé’s performances last season were indeed like watching a computer game, but his achievements will feel as real as anything if his name is read out as the winner of the 2025 Ballon d’Or on Monday.

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