We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash at the Allianz Arena with our Bayern Munich vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Bayern Munich have the edge according to the Opta supercomputer, with the Bundesliga champions given a 54.9% win probability against Chelsea. Manuel Neuer is closing in on 100 wins in the UEFA Champions League. Bayern have only lost one of their last 11 home games against English sides in the Champions League (W8 D2).Two-time European champions Chelsea are back at UEFA’s top table.
They will feature in the Champions League for the first time since the 2022-23 campaign. Since their last match in the competition in April 2023, the Blues have won 12 of their 13 European matches (excluding qualifiers).
That, of course, includes Chelsea’s run to UEFA Conference League glory last season, while we should not forget that Enzo Maresca’s team also triumphed at the FIFA Club World Cup this summer, thumping reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 in the final.
Chelsea have a heavyweight clash, and a trip to Munich – the scene of one of their most famous nights – to welcome them back into the Champions League fold, and the Blues are going up against a team bang in form.
Vincent Kompany’s Bayern were runaway Bundesliga winners last season, and they have started this season in style, scoring 14 goals in their three league matches and taking maximum points. They routed Hamburg 5-0 on Saturday, while Chelsea were pegged back to a 2-2 draw by Brentford.
Bayern were knocked out by eventual runners-up Internazionale in the last 16 of last season’s Champions League, and it is fair to say Kompany’s team did not always convince in Europe. They suffered defeats to Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord in the league phase, and had to scrape past Celtic in a knockout-stage play-off.
However, since 2003-04 when the second group stage was removed, Bayern have the highest win percentage in the group/league phase of the Champions League (73%), winning 93 of their 128 matches outside of the knockout stages.
Bayern also have a great recent record against English teams in the competition.
They have only lost one of their last 11 home games against English sides in the Champions League (W8 D2), with that defeat coming against Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool in March 2019 (3-1). Bayern have beaten five different English sides in this run, including Chelsea (also W3 vs Arsenal, W1 vs Manchester City, W2 vs Manchester United and W1 vs Tottenham Hotspur).
Star forward Harry Kane continues to thrive for Bayern, and he will be out to do the damage against a team he has actually only found the net against eight times in 22 previous meetings.
Kane has started this season brilliantly. He’s already scored 11 goals across all competitions, outperforming his 5.3 expected goals (xG) by some distance in the process.
Feeding Kane will be the likes of Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry and Joshua Kimmich.
Gnabry has already provided four assists this season, leading Bayern along with Kane, while Olise, who once seemed on the verge of a transfer to Chelsea during his Crystal Palace days, is on three. Kimmich, meanwhile, has set up two goals from a team-high 4.3 expected assists (xA) and 28 chances created.
Across the last three seasons (since 2022-23), Kimmich leads all players in the Champions League for both completed passes (2,525) and chances created (83). Last season, he was the top-ranked player in the competition for line-breaking passes (219).
Bayern have plenty of firepower, but at the other end they have a stalwart who is closing in on a Champions League milestone.
Manuel Neuer is currently sitting on 99 wins in the competition. Only three players have won 100 Champions League matches – Cristiano Ronaldo (115), Thomas Müller (111) and Iker Casillas (101).
Neuer (60) has kept the most clean sheets and made the most saves (413) of any goalkeeper in Champions League history. He has made 150 appearances in the competition, the eighth-most.
In Chelsea’s attack, meanwhile, there could be a player making his Champions League bow.
Estêvão missed Saturday’s draw with Brentford due to illness, but should he make his Champions League debut on Wednesday, he would do so at the age of just 18 years and 46 days old.
Prior to the 2025-26 campaign, only three South American players have scored in the competition aged younger than that – Endrick in 2024 (18y 58d), Roque Santa Cruz in 1999 (18y 71d) and Lionel Messi in 2005 (18y 131d).
Cole Palmer‘s return to fitness has provided a timely boost for Maresca. The playmaker scored just five minutes after coming off the bench against Brentford. It was his first open-play goal in the Premier League since January.
Palmer has been directly involved in eight goals in his last eight club games in international competitions (three goals, five assists), three of which came in his last such appearance in the Club World Cup final against PSG (two goals, one assist).
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Bayern have won three of their last four games against Chelsea in the Champions League (D1, lost on penalties in the final 2012), including winning both legs against them in the 2019-20 last 16 in their most recent meetings (3-0 away and 4-1 at home).
Chelsea have lost 60% of their games against Bayern in the European Cup/Champions League (W1 D1 L3). their highest loss percentage against any side they have faced on at least five occasions across the two competitions.
Indeed, only Barcelona (four) have more wins against the Blues than Bayern (three) in the European Cup/Champions League.
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and Bayern came out victorious in 54.9% of them.
Chelsea secured a memorable away win in 23.0% of the sims, while the two sides played out a draw 22.1% of the time.
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Josip Stanisic, Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, Luis Díaz, Harry Kane.
Head Coach: Vincent Kompany
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Reece James, Tosin Adarabioyo, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Enzo Fernández, Moisés Caicedo, Estêvão, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, João Pedro.
Head Coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night in Germany, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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