Like that of Mark Twain, reports of Sir Keir Starmer’s political death are greatly exaggerated.
Admittedly, 16 days since he announced that “Phase Two of my government starts today”, many in Labour find themselves torn between unexpected nostalgia for the comparatively calm days of Phase One and trepidation about what horrors Phase Three might bring.
To say it hasn’t been a happy fortnight for Downing Street is something of an understatement. There was the scandal over – and then loss of – Angela Rayner, one of the most prominent and politically effective members of the frontbench. Then the scandal over and loss of former US ambassador Peter Mandelson, on the cusp of Donald Trump’s state visit to London.
Now, Downing Street is trying to grapple with the risky legacy of both – a battle for the Labour Party’s deputy leadership, seen as a grassroots referendum on the leadership’s direction – and a creeping controversy as to what No 10 knew about Mandelson’s Epstein links (and when).
News of influential Tory Danny Kruger’s defection to Reform yesterday might reassure some on the government benches that the Opposition has troubles of its own, but that isn’t sufficient to take the heat out of the Government’s own challenges.
Blows continue to fall on Starmer’s head – most recently, the resignation of Paul Ovenden, his director of strategy, over inappropriate messages from 2017 obtained by ITV News.
Given that the Prime Minister is now being buffeted by events on the back of 14 torrid months in office, it’s unsurprising that there’s speculation about his political future. Is Starmer already toast?
I don’t think so – or at least not yet, on the evidence of what we know so far.
Three major factors are hammering his standing among the Parliamentary Labour Party. The first is the Government’s policy judgement, painfully displayed when the winter fuel payments fiasco turned into a humiliating rebellion over wider welfare reforms.
The second is its political judgement. Many MPs are appalled that Downing Street keeps blundering into unforced errors. There were benefits to Mandelson, such as his rapport with Donald Trump, but the risks were clear long before the latest emails. The fact that the peer stayed in the sex trafficker’s home even after Epstein had been jailed was known long before Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador in January 2025.
The third is indecision. In the cases of both Rayner and Mandelson, Downing Street vacillated until being forced into a decision that had long been obvious. The impact is to maximise the political pain, for no benefit. Ministers go on TV to hold the line, then are embarrassed when their leader pulls the rug from under them.
This is reminiscent of Boris Johnson, who never encountered a sacking he didn’t choose to prolong. Starmer is inexplicably spreading political pain to his colleagues by repeating the same mistake.
square MARK WALLACE Now Rayner's gone, let’s scrap this growth-stifling workers' rights bill
Read More
And yet, the game is not yet up.
Starmer is lucky in his critics. While there are rumblings from mainstream backbenchers, the charge is being led by usual suspects from the left like Richard Burgon. That doesn’t move the dial much – and indeed might deter some from joining the cause.
This was visible in the deputy leadership nominations. Yes, one of the two who made the cut is someone Starmer sacked from Cabinet the week prior. But the pitch from the further left of the party fell on deaf ears. Many MPs are unhappy, but they are merely wobbling thus far – and party rules require 20 per cent of them to back a leadership challenger ahead of Labour’s party conference, which is 12 days away.
Downing Street also has a powerful rebuttal available: who is your alternative? If the issues in the economy and the state are proving intractable, why would a new leader be able to overcome them where the current leadership cannot?
If the answer is that they aren’t spending, taxing and borrowing enough money, then while that may speak to the hearts of some Labour members, memories of the 2015 and 2019 general elections still sting enough to warn most off over-indulging themselves.
Inevitably, there’s talk of Andy Burnham as a king over the water in Manchester. Burnham has attracted a groundswell of support by looking somewhat able and keeping himself at a distance from the Government. But how is he meant to become leader and Prime Minister when he isn’t even an MP? He must clear difficult hurdles just to become eligible.
The maximum banter outcome – and recent years have provided reason to think a cosmic jester is pulling some strings somewhere – would be that Burnham takes the risk of resigning as mayor and a sitting Labour MP stands aside for him. Then in the ensuing by-election, Labour’s vote is shredded by Corbyn’s new party from the left and Reform from the right, each offering a chance to lash out at the government, and Burnham loses. Is that a risk worth taking?
This points to Starmer’s other advantage: time. Whether it’s Burgon predicting his downfall after bad results in 2026’s local elections, or Burnhamites plotting out a route to Westminster, the Prime Minister can see any incoming challenge months in advance. His opponents can only deliver the message: “We’re coming to get you… in a bit!” While Starmer may not be the most effective political operator, that’s still a sizeable advantage.
All of which means – barring some truly explosive revelation about the Mandelson appointment – Starmer is more secure than he might appear. That’s good news for him, but it’s also good news for Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage.
Starmer’s weaknesses and the disapproval ratings the Prime Minister has now attracted will continue to be available for them to attack with gusto. Labour’s agony continues.
Mark Wallace is chief executive of Total Politics Group
Hence then, the article about is keir starmer already toast i don t think so was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Is Keir Starmer already toast? I don’t think so )
Also on site :
- The Supreme Court Cast Its Lot With Trumpism. It Should Be Very Worried.
- UN renews Sudan ceasefire appeal over ‘unimaginable suffering’ of civilians
- Israeli forces continue ceasefire violations with attacks across Gaza