With today’s off-day, it’s a good time to do a quick check on the standings, where the Chicago Cubs hold the top Wild Card spot by 4.0 games over the San Diego Padres, and hold a Wild Card spot in total by 9.0 games over the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants.
The Reds and Padres were actually playing this week, with the Padres last night blowing a late one-run lead. That, combined with a Giants loss to the Diamondbacks, brought the Reds up into a tie with the Giants as the last teams on the outside looking in.
Speaking of which, the New York Mets’ horrible slump, including their fifth loss in a row, have them pretty seriously in danger at this point. With two teams relatively close and chasing them (maybe not to completely ignore the Diamondbacks, either), there’s a very real chance they could get passed.
Either way, though, it’s more or less impossible for the Cubs to fall out of the playoffs entirely at this point. Instead, the real focus is that top Wild Card spot, and the three home games that come with it. Because the Cubs/Padres tiebreaker is going to come down to each club’s record against their own division, and because that’s neck-and-neck right now, it’s important that the Cubs finish clear of the Padres straight up in the standings. A four-game lead with 16 games to go is a very good start.
The Padres host the Rockies this week, while the Cubs host the Rays.
Of note, in that Wild Card round, the last of the three division winners gets to host the lowest Wild Card team, while the top Wild Card hosts the second Wild Card – so, if things hold as they are now, it’ll be the Cubs hosting the Padres at Wrigley Field in the Wild Card round. Wouldn’t be fun facing that Padres bullpen, but I do like the starting pitcher match-ups. (The winner of that series, by the way, is likely to be playing the Brewers in the Divisional round.)
All right. Fine. I will mention the NL Central, for which the Cubs have about a 2% chance of coming back.
The Brewers just go swept by the Rangers, and, combined with the Cubs’ two wins, their lead is now down to 5.5 games over the Cubs. They would have to completely crater from here for the Cubs to have a realistic chance of coming back, though. There’s just not enough time left for the Cubs to do it on their own, potentially not even if the Cubs won every single game the rest of the way.
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