Let's dive straight into it.
Citi- Core CPI at +0.31% m/m- "Details even more indicative of slowing underlying inflation."- "Services and shelter inflation should continue slowing, and strength should be more clearly concentrated in core goods categories impacted by tariffs."
Deutsche- Core CPI at +0.32% m/m- "At the component level, we will mainly be looking for continued signs of tariff impacts in core goods categories."- "We expect continued strength in those which have shown signs of tariff effects over the last couple months as well as a potential expansion in inflationary pressures out to apparel."
Goldman Sachs- Core CPI at +0.36% m/m- "We have penciled in upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed, such as communication, household furnishings, and recreation, worth +0.14% on core inflation."- Headline monthly inflation penciled in at +0.37% m/m, boosted by higher food (+0.35%) and energy (+0.6%) prices- "Over the next few months, we expect tariffs to continue to boost monthly inflation and forecast monthly core CPI inflation around 0.3%."- "Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further, reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets."
ING- Core CPI at +0.3% m/m- "Likely to be more evidence of goods price inflation being triggered by tariffs, but remember that core goods – items most vulnerable to tariff impact – are only 19% by weight of the inflation basket."- "Housing costs are 33% by weight, and there is likely to be more evidence of softening rents."
Nomura- Core CPI at +0.34% m/m- The biggest contributor will come from core goods inflation, estimated at +0.48% - the fastest rise since June 2022- "We expect non-auto goods prices continued to increase at a strong pace due to higher tariffs."- "Supercore inflation likely decelerated as a boost from higher dental service prices and airline fares waned."
Wells Fargo- Core CPI at +0.29% m/m- Should see "sticky services inflation alongside a rebound in goods prices"- Core goods inflation should rise to +0.25% m/m on new vehicle inflation, apparel- Core services inflation should rise to +0.30% m/m on "travel-related service prices"
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