Russia’s attacks on Poland prove it: Putin is laughing at Trump ...Middle East

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Russia’s attacks on Poland prove it: Putin is laughing at Trump

Who could have predicted that when Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin in Alaska last month, the Russian leader would see it as a green light to escalate his war in Europe?

Forgive the sarcasm, but it’s been blindingly obvious since Trump returned to office that his light-touch plan of bringing Putin to heel has failed at every step. Russian attacks on Ukraine have increased significantly since Trump’s White House return, while Putin has repeatedly tested Western solidarity – particularly that of the Nato alliance.

    Arguably the biggest test of Nato came last night, as a number of Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Poland shot those drones down with the assistance of Nato allies, marking the first instance of a Nato country firing at a Russian target since the full-scale war in Ukraine began in 2022.

    The Kremlin has denied that the drones were Russian, calling Poland’s assertions “groundless”, and has claimed that they came from Ukraine. Online tracking of drone flight paths and images of the drones themselves heavily support Poland’s contention that they originated from Russia.

    Nato has said it will not treat the incident as an attack, rather an incursion. Meanwhile, Poland has invoked Article 4 of the Nato treaty – which stops short of calling for a military response.

    Everything about the incident in Poland plays perfectly into Putin’s hands, when you consider his wider objectives for dealing with the West.

    Putin wants to tell a story that the US-led Western order is in decline and weak. He wants to spin that narrative to domestic audiences in Russia, inside Ukraine and across the West.

    Russian drones carrying large payloads entering the airspace of a Nato ally that borders Ukraine is enough for a full Article 5 response. The reality that the alliance is stopping short of that and refusing to call it an attack is an easy propaganda win for Putin. He can claim to Russian citizens it is yet more proof that Nato is scared of mighty Russia.

    For Ukrainians, he can drive home the idea that help isn’t coming. If Nato won’t even rally to support its own members militarily, then what hope is there for Ukraine? Breaking Ukrainian resolve has been a key objective of the Kremlin since the start of the war.

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    For Western audiences, it tells the story of division among allies. A divided alliance makes responding to Putin very difficult for Nato. The nature of being a 32-country group that is underpinned by unity means that any retaliation comes with a lot of bureaucracy. That means responses risk being watered down or drawn out. Compare this to an autocrat like Putin, who has full control of his army and nuclear weapons, and suddenly the Russian threat looks formidable to Westerners – especially if they fear America is no longer committed to European security.

    Part of the reason, diplomats say, that Nato is stopping short of considering Article 5 after what happened in Poland is that they knew some alliance members would be reluctant to go there. Chief among those, most assume, would have been President Trump.

    Trump’s efforts to bring an end to the war and deal with Putin have been at best inconsistent. Since returning to office he has berated Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and blamed him for the war, dragged his heels on continuing US support for Kyiv before approving the sale of high-powered American weapons. He has threatened Russia with deadline after deadline, only to let them pass and then welcome the Russian president on US soil at this August’s farcical peace summit.

    Outside of the ongoing horror in Ukraine, the biggest failure of Trump’s strategy is that he has at virtually every step emboldened Putin. He has fed the narrative that ultimately, the Russian president will get his way because the West is too scared, divided and, in Trump’s case, disinterested to fight back. As Lithuania’s former foreign minister recently told me: “Every time he does something and we don’t move our finger, his ambition will grow.”

    This doesn’t need to be the case. Russia’s victory in Ukraine is also not a foregone conclusion. Putin has thrown human lives and money at this war, only to make marginal gains and reach an effective deadlock. He absolutely could not afford to get into a wider conflict with Nato.

    The West has the resources to stand up to Putin and stop handing him propaganda wins. But it needs its de facto leader in the White House to realise that Putin is laughing at him. It needs Trump to see Putin as the enemy he is.

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