Goldman Sachs is bracing for a hotter U.S. inflation print in August, with core CPI seen rising 0.36% m/m — just above the 0.30% consensus — pushing the annual rate to 3.13%.
Headline CPI is forecast to climb 0.37% m/m, led by firmer food (+0.35%) and energy (+0.60%) costs, while pricier cars and airfare are also expected to have nudged inflation higher.
The bank warned tariffs are adding fuel to the mix, particularly in categories like communications, furnishings and recreation. Goldman expects levies under President Donald Trump to keep monthly core CPI running at about 0.3% in the near term. But beyond the tariff bump, economists see underlying trend inflation continuing to cool as housing and labour-related pressures ease.
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Sticky CPI forecasts may curb Fed rate-cut bets, supporting USD and weighing Treasuries. Perhaps, but the rate cut train has a head of steam for now.
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Data is due on Thursday, September 11, 2025 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT.
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