We look ahead to Tuesday’s FIFA World Cup qualifier at Stadion Rajko Mitić with our Serbia vs England prediction and preview.
Serbia vs England: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer is backing England to win in Serbia, with the Three Lions victorious in 50.3% of pre-game simulations. England have not conceded a goal in any of their last six competitive fixtures and could tie their longest ever run of clean sheets in such games. This will be England’s first visit to Serbia as an independent nation, with their last away game against Yugoslavia coming in November 1987.Thomas Tuchel could become just the fourth manager to win each of his first five competitive games in charge of England on Tuesday when the Three Lions face their toughest task in 2026 World Cup qualification: a trip to Serbia.
Only Fabio Capello (first eight), Ron Greenwood (first six) and Sven-Göran Eriksson (first five) previously achieved that feat.
Yet it’s fair to say Tuchel has gone about his first four wins in incredibly underwhelming fashion. England may be winning, but they are far from setting the world alight.
The most recent instalment of Tuchel’s tenure came on Saturday, as the Three Lions eased their way to victory over Andorra.
England won 2-0 at Villa Park thanks to a Christian García own goal and an effort from Declan Rice, but that was the least that would’ve been expected when playing at home against the team ranked 174th in the world by FIFA.
The Three Lions mustered just 11 shots, and only one after Rice’s goal in the 67th minute – they last had fewer efforts in a game (10) against a nation ranked outside of the top 100 in March 2011 versus Wales (won 2-0 – 116th-ranked).
Gareth Southgate was often criticised for a pragmatic approach when he had so many stars at his disposal, but Tuchel hasn’t yet brought excitement either, even if his team are proving effective against (weaker) opponents, with England sitting top of World Cup qualifying Group K on 12 points from four matches.
England have scored eight goals across their four qualifiers, while they have registered the fourth-highest expected goals (xG) of any European team (11.0). However, heavyweights like France, Germany, Portugal and Spain have only just started their campaigns, while other big nations, such as the Netherlands and Italy, have played fewer matches.
No team have averaged more possession (78%) or kept as many clean sheets (four) as England, so Tuchel will point to the numbers as evidence of his approach working, too.
However, Tuesday’s clash with Serbia will present the sternest test England have faced in this campaign.
Serbia have lost just one of their last 24 World Cup qualifiers (W16 D7), losing 3-2 to Austria in October 2017.
Their record at home is excellent. They have lost just one of their last 28 home World Cup qualifiers since September 2001 (W19 D8), a 3-0 defeat to Belgium in October 2012.
Nevertheless, Serbia have scored four goals in their three 2026 World Cup qualifiers, so they are hardly prolific either.
Aleksandar Mitrovic is a player England’s defenders, and any Premier League watchers, will know all about, of course. He has recently switched from Saudi giants Al-Hilal, for whom he scored 47 league goals in 51 games, to Al Rayyan in Qatar.
But while the 30-year-old may be heading into the latter stage of his career in the Middle East, he is always a goal threat for his country. With 62 international goals to his name, he is Serbia’s record scorer. Eight of those goals have come across his last seven starts in World Cup qualifying.
Interestingly, in facing Jordan Pickford, Mitrovic will be going up against the goalkeeper whom he had the most shots at during his Premier League career (24 – six on target). However, he never managed to score past the Everton shot-stopper in the competition.
While Tuchel will be hoping Pickford carries that record onto the international stage on Tuesday, the England number one does have a sturdy defence ahead of him.
Of the teams to play more than one qualifier in this cycle, only the Netherlands (0.7) boast a better xG against than England (0.8).
England have not conceded in any of their last six competitive fixtures and could tie their longest ever run of clean sheets in such games, previously keeping seven in a row between October 1988 and October 1989 under Bobby Robson.
At the other end, there is Harry Kane for Serbia’s defence to contend with.
Kane could not get on the scoresheet against Andorra, but the England captain has scored an away goal against 15 different opponents in his international career, with only Wayne Rooney netting against more different nations on the road (16).
The Bayern Munich forward has played at this venue before in Belgrade, having four shots to no avail for Tottenham Hotspur vs Crvena Zvezda in the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League.
With Jude Bellingham injured and Phil Foden not included in this squad, Rice has even more licence to push forward from midfield, and will no doubt offer some support to the forward line.
He has now had a hand in seven goals in his last 12 appearances for England (three goals, four assists), having been involved in just three in his first 55 international appearances (three goals, no assists).
Noni Madueke played in the cross from which García headed in England’s opener against Andorra, and the Arsenal winger finished that match with a game-leading three chances created. Elliot Anderson, meanwhile, impressed on his debut, settling in nicely as a midfield anchor and completing 107 of his 114 passes. He will be eager to shine again if given the nod.
Serbia vs England Head-to-Head
This will be England’s first visit to Serbia as an independent nation, with their last away game against Yugoslavia coming in November 1987, winning 4-1 in a UEFA European Championship qualifier.
Including Yugoslavia and Serbia & Montenegro, England have won each of their last five meetings with Serbia by an aggregate score of 11-3.
Serbia vs England Prediction
England are the favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, which has run 10,000 data-led simulations.
The Three Lions came out on top in 50.3% of those, while Serbia claimed three points in 26.2% and a draw was the outcome 23.5% of the time.
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Serbia vs England Prediction: Can Tuchel Deliver More Entertainment to Expectant Fans? Opta Analyst.
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