The energy at Reform UK’s annual conference in Birmingham was undeniable. “I feel alive,” one party member – a pensioner and political novice – told The i Paper as he entered the gathering at the National Exhibition Centre.
The adulation for Nigel Farage was intense. Hundreds of members queued up to get his signature on a “Reform FC” football shirt, at a cost of £100 a pop. “I just love him!”, one activist spontaneously blurted out in the middle of the leader’s keynote speech on Friday afternoon.
Most of the country outside the convention centre could be forgiven for scarcely noticing what was going on. Minutes before the official start of the conference on Friday, Angela Rayner confirmed she was resigning as Deputy Prime Minister, instantly overshadowing the Reform shindig.
Farage moved his speech forwards by a few hours to capitalise on the latest bad news for Labour, and one ally claimed to be delighted at the contrast between “the Government in chaos versus Nigel, who is top in the polls, setting out his vision for the country”.
Caption: Nigel Farage pulled forward the time of his conference speech following the resignation of Angela Rayner (Photo: Reuters)But there is little doubt that the Rayner resignation, and subsequent Cabinet reshuffle, sucked attention away from Reform and denied them a prime opportunity to set out their policy stall to the general public.
Perhaps that is just as well: the main policy announced during the conference was almost immediately mired in confusion. Farage used his speech to promise that “we will stop the boats within two weeks of winning government” – but the next day he told broadcasters that in fact he meant Channel crossings by asylum seekers would end within a fortnight of new legislation taking effect, a process which usually takes several months.
Those around the party admit in private that it has a lot of work to do to develop a coherent policy programme for the next general election, work which will be led by Zia Yusuf and a unit within Reform headquarters.
Officials are working increasingly closely with think-tanks including the Centre for a Better Britain and the Prosperity Institute, with other right-of-centre wonks also engaging with Reform as they hedge their bets amid the Conservative party’s ongoing struggle to regain support in the opinion polls.
The world of business, too, is starting to show more interest in Reform. The party claimed that a total of 10,000 people attended the conference overall, including an army of lobbyists and public affairs advisers descending on the NEC to work out how they can influence Reform and keep on top of its plans for government.
“The corporate world have basically blanked us,” an insider said of the period before Reform’s surge in the polls and successful local election campaign. “They can’t do that any more, the City is going to have to take us seriously.”
Caption: Lucy Connolly (right) was welcomed with rapturous applause as she joined newspaper columnist Allison Pearson on stage (Photo: Oli Scarff/AFP)One business source who attended said they were impressed by the scale of the conference, remarking: “It’s a lot more flashy than the other conferences usually are – I can’t imagine Labour or the Tories having fireworks on the main stage!”
That chimes with the boast of one of the event’s organisers who said: “You’ve got to have a bit of fun with it, it can’t be like Tory conference where everyone is asleep in their chairs.”
Others who have sought to get to know Reform, however, fear that the party still does not have the institutional structure it needs to move away from its past of being dominated by a small number of powerful and sometimes erratic men.
“When you meet their backroom staff it becomes clear that it’s only the principals who can actually make any decisions,” a corporate attendee said.
“That’s how they end up acting in this sort of mafioso way.”
‘Tory graveyard’ warning
Even as the conference projected a more mainstream, business-friendly image there were signs of the Ukip-style conspiracy and crankery – Saturday featured appearances on the main stage from TV doctor Aseem Malhotra, who claimed that Covid vaccines had given cancer to members of the royal family, and Lucy Connolly, a woman jailed for suggesting that asylum seekers should be burned to death.
Reform has successfully coaxed former Conservative MPs into its fold, most recently the former Cabinet minister Nadine Dorries. But its backroom operations remain dominated by a mixture of longtime Farage allies and sparky young officials who have never worked anywhere else.
One Westminster insider said the party could benefit from an infusion of external expertise, but warned: “Loyalty is everything for Nigel, so he’d be suspicious of anyone who is coming from outside.”
Caption: A member of the party shows his hat signed by Nigel Farage during the annual conference (Photo: AP)Meanwhile, feelings within Reform are mixed about the wisdom of accepting the likes of Dorries in the party.
A young activist told The i Paper that Farage needed to “wean off” taking more defectors or Reform would end up “Conservatives 2.0” and a “Tory graveyard”.
The activist also expressed his hope that Sir Keir Starmer’s “crumbling” Labour government would hold things together for just a bit longer, because he feared Reform were not yet ready for power.
Farage agrees. He says privately that one reason the party needs former Tories is to bolster its lack of experience, forecasting that it will take around a year or two for Reform to be prepared to run a government – although it is already in power in a dozen county councils.
Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, said on stage that the regional leaders feel “a great weight on our shoulders”.
The party could extend its power as soon as next year, some insiders believe. A Reform donor attending the conference predicted that the party would win control of the Welsh Senedd in May, and could also be the largest party in the Scottish Parliament – as well as having a decent chance of victory in the London mayoral election.
Publicly, Farage says he is getting ready for a general election as early as 2027. He has laid out a vision to allies in which Sir Keir Starmer – whom he derides as “a soldier about to surrender” – holds an emergency “austerity” Budget to try and regain the confidence of markets, leading to a mass revolt of Labour MPs with dozens defecting either to Jeremy Corbyn’s new party or to the Greens.
Caption: Nigel Farage holds a Reform-branded ‘Farage 10’ shirt at the NEC (Photo: AP)Reform will benefit from a split on the left, he predicts, with pro-Gaza candidates likely to pick up at least 30 seats in the next general election.
This narrative is somewhat undermined by the fact that football-style shirts on sale at the conference bore the number 29 on the back – referring to the year that most people expect the general election takes place.
One senior Reform insider said that the real deadline for party readiness was May 2028, by which time it hopes to have a full slate of policies and an entire “shadow Cabinet” ready to fit into the equivalent roles in government.
At this year’s conference, Farage named former Conservative MP Lee Anderson as spokesman on welfare, but many other key posts remain unfilled – including that of economic spokesman. Both Richard Tice, the deputy leader, and policy chief Yusuf are likely to be interested in the role – which would put whoever gets it in pole position to be the first Reform chancellor – setting up a potential clash in the coming months.
Reform’s strength, despite gaps in its organisational fitness, derives from its popular support – and the increasing perception that its backers are not right-wing fanatics, but ordinary residents of Middle England.
One pollster remarked: “You look at who the average Reform voter is – they really are just the average voter!” And a party insider told The i Paper: “The risk of joining has just diminished, the reputational fear they had – that has gone, it’s gone.”
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