The fall of Angela Rayner looks like a fatal blow to her political career. Many are saying that it means Sir Keir Starmer’s Government is “toast” alongside the former deputy prime minister. A dead government, walking to annihilation by Reform at the next election.
The sequence of departures of ministers in disgrace during Labour’s first year had already undermined Starmer’s promise to be the “change” from what had come before. Now his deputy’s departure has fuelled the cynicism of those inclined to think “they are all the same – in it for themselves”.
On the other hand, this seismic shock could be a golden opportunity for Starmer to relaunch his Government. The Prime Minister could emerge stronger – if he finds the courage to take on the lazy sentimentality of his party.
After a rocky start in opposition, Rayner was a loyal deputy and troubleshooter for the PM. But she remained his biggest threat. She was the person constitutionally and politically best placed to step into his shoes if he were to be removed. Now she is gone – and there is no other obvious challenger out there.
At the least, her failures amounted to culpable carelessness; at the worst, her critics say she is a hypocrite – a socialist, property-owning tax-dodger. Either way, she has discredited what she seemed to symbolise for her party – a more leftish policy alternative.
In shock, the Labour Party may still make a sentimental choice by electing a deputy leader from the left. If so, the leader can disregard them as Harold Wilson once did George Brown; or as Jeremy Corbyn shrugged off Tom Watson. John Prescott and Margaret Beckett found out that their best course of action was to support the leader.
square KITTY DONALDSON Careless Rayner had no choice – Starmer is on the back foot yet again
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Starmer did not want to sack Rayner or usher in this crisis, but he has acted with despatch. He had to. As he said to the BBC, he is not “like Boris Johnson”, he gets rid of ministers who break the strengthened Ministerial Code – or are even suspected of it, as Tulip Sidiq found out.
This sad affair plays well to the former director of public prosecutions. It burnishes his image as the lawyer who deliberates and then acts ruthlessly when required. After all the painfully lingering political deaths of the Tory years, Kemi Badenoch’s claims that Starmer “dithered” will miss the target, once again.
Starmer paid doubtlessly sincere tribute to Rayner’s lifetime of achievement. They weren’t always such friends. Back in May 2021, after the Tory triumph in the Hartlepool by-election, she muscled off his attempts to demote her. Now she is out in disgrace, he is stronger than he has ever been at the top of the party. If he is bold enough, he has the opportunity to shape his government exactly in the way he wants in the Cabinet reshuffle her departure has precipitated.
In due course, that may not be good news for the embattled Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. Even before this disaster, the Prime Minister had begun to wrestle back control. Plans for big tax rises have lost their most powerful advocate.
Until now, Starmer has been pushed around by his MPs and forced to U-turn after poorly presented plans for benefits cuts. The immediate buzz from Labour MPs is that Rayner was “one of us”; the great communicator who embodied Labour values. The sad truth is that she has let them down – and not treated her high office with the necessary circumspection.
Not all “working people” were so relaxed about Rayner’s louche image. Even before her fall, a good number seemed to share Nigel Farage’s suggestion that her behaviour “screams of entitlement”.
Dull, over-cautious, plodding – at least no one can accuse Starmer of arrogance. This latest disaster – for which he cannot be blamed – means that he is all the Labour Party has got left. Corbynites are already jumping ship to the Greens and the Corbyn/Sultana party. The only logical option for the Labour Government is to head back to the centre – where many disillusioned voters from all classes are stumbling in confusion.
Labour parliamentarians will almost certainly rise up if confronted with an economically realistic budget, or moves back to the New Labour agenda on immigration and ID cards. The Prime Minister can confront them with a hard choice: vote me down and there will be an early general election – and not many Labour MPs will come back from that.
Of course, Starmer may not have the vision, the courage (or even the inclination) to not let this crisis go to waste. But if he grasps this moment, he could yet save himself, his Government – and perhaps even the country.
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