Donald Trump has never been afraid to court outlandish conspiracy theories, from floating unfounded allegations of voter fraud against the Democrats in 2020 to claiming that Haitian immigrants who had moved to Ohio were eating local residents’ cats and dogs. Yet he may finally have reached the limit of what that political methodology can do for him.
The release of yet more material from the “Epstein files” has yet again yielded nothing nutritious for hungry conspiracy theorists to digest. In July, Trump’s Attorney General Pam Bondi declared that a purported list of clients of Jeffrey Epstein, a former friend of Trump’s who died in jail in 2019 awaiting trial for sex trafficking charges, did not actually exist.
It quickly became a big problem for Trump, whose base had expected him to make good on pledges to declassify files relating to Epstein, but he insisted that the whole thing was a “hoax” perpetrated by leading Democrats.
The 33,000 pages of information dropped into the public domain yesterday contain almost nothing new. Still, that these redundant “files” had to be released at all indicates the Trump administration is still unable to escape the pressure from a large proportion of the President’s most devoted and conspiracy theory-minded fan: the QAnon movement.
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Followers believe (broadly speaking) that the world is controlled by a cabal of paedophilic, child-murdering, hormone-harvesting politicians and celebrities. It’s hard to know how many believers there are, but they have an outsized presence within right-wing politics. Many “anons” were radicalised, or radicalised themselves, during lockdown, when months of confinement to their screens sent them down the most bizarre of rabbit holes. Many of them became obsessive to the point of losing their families, and still fantasise about the cathartic “storm” – led by Trump – that will clear out the evil that lurks at the top of the world order.
Not every die-hard Trump supporter subscribes to the arcane theories of QAnon, and nor anyone else with questions about Epstein. But in most iterations of the QAnon theory, the Epstein case is crucial. For one thing, it is the single best-known real world example of a group of powerful, ultra-wealthy people conspiring to control and traffic underage girls for their sexual pleasure. There is the story of Epstein’s suicide, which occurred just out of sight of a sputtering prison security system and has become a focus of conspiracy theories.
And more than that, there is the constant sense that the authorities and powerful people involved know more than has been made public, from the redaction of names in witness statements to blithe statements from Trump’s Justice Department that more information will be released at last.
And yet here we are: 33,000 pages of detail revealing nothing new, again. But in QAnon world, absence of evidence is decidedly not evidence of absence. Quite the opposite: informational gaps are always suspect, and in themselves offer further evidence of conspiracy and cover-up. The theory simply develops to imagine a conspiracy ever deeper and more complicated, and the imperative to expose whatever lies at its heart grows ever more urgent.
The problem for the Trump administration is that nothing can satiate this hunger. QAnon-ism is at root a craving for revelation.
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Trump and his subordinates cannot stuff this toothpaste back in the tube by offering a paper trail, particularly one that conspicuously absents the President himself from the narrative years after he publicly said he wished Epstein’s associate Ghislaine Maxwell well following her arrest.
Anything short of converting what is written and rumoured into the visual and indisputable will only invite further frenzied interpretation by a sleep-deprived political-religious movement.
The risk for Trump and co is that the conspiracy theorists, who make up a politically and electorally crucial minority of their base, will grow fixated on the administration’s supposed obfuscation and begin to fold the President himself. And that once that happens, there will be no way back.
Trump may yet find a way to burrow past the constitution and run for a third term; should he do so, he will need these people on side. If he doesn’t produce evidence that exculpates him from the Epstein narrative and reveals in horrific detail that QAnon’s followers are right, he will have to find votes elsewhere.
The problem is that such evidence simply may not exist – and proving a negative for this cohort is epistemically impossible.
For the ageing Trump, the improbable political survivor of indictments, impeachments and scandals galore, this may be one story he cannot escape.
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