Brighton vs Man City Prediction: Can Pep Guardiola’s Side Bounce Back From Tottenham Defeat? ...Middle East

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton and Man City prediction and preview.

Brighton vs Man City: The Key Stats

Brighton and Manchester City suffered disappointing defeats last weekend in the Premier League, both losing games they were considered favourites for against Everton and Tottenham Hotspur respectively. Now is their chance to bounce back or risk heading into the first international break under a cloud of negativity.

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The story so far for Brighton is one their fans have heard many times before: they are controlling games but wasting chances.

The Seagulls have generated the fourth most expected goals in the Premier League this season (3.91), but they have scored just once, with that goal coming from the penalty spot courtesy of Matt O’Riley.

Meanwhile, they rank second in the league for passes completed in their own half (503) but are only 15th for total passes completed in the opposition’s half (282).

Indeed, across the league, the top two combinations for passes between players in 2025-26 are Brighton central defenders Lewis Dunk and Jan Paul van Hecke (119), and Dunk and goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen (65).

In their defeat at Everton last week, the first competitive game played at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, Brighton missed three big chances, two of them for which Danny Welbeck was at fault.

Nonetheless, if they are to take any points off of Man City, they will likely be more reliant on their defence than their attack.

One player who has shown he may have the tools required to disrupt City’s tempo is Mats Wieffer, who has been used at right-back so far this season.

Wieffer has made 12 tackles in the Premier League this season for Brighton, the most of any player so far this campaign. The Dutchman averages 5.3 tackles per 90 minutes for the Seagulls, comfortably the most of any player to play 500+ minutes in the competition for them.

For Fantasy Football players, it makes him an intriguing out-of-position option for Gameweek 3 in FPL Challenge.

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It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Man City at the moment. Their comfortable subjugation of Wolves in their opening game hinted that last season’s unusually poor incarnation of Pep Guardiola’s City was to disappear from view, only for it to return last weekend at home to Spurs.

They were error prone in defence, outduelled in midfield, and predictable in the final third.

What should also be of concern to City fans is that there was no real threat of creating momentum in the second half when they were chasing the game – they became less and less dangerous as the match continued.

With no consistent scorer from wide positions, Erling Haaland shoulders an immense amount of responsibility to chip in on a weekly basis.

This will be the Norwegian’s 100th appearance in the Premier League. He has already scored more goals than any player has previously netted inside their first century of appearances in the competition.

City will also be hoping that Phil Foden can rediscover the level of form that saw him win the PFA Player of the Year award in 2023-24, having seen his influence wane massively last season.

Foden appeared from the bench last week, and could be ready to be brought back into the starting XI, although Guardiola is more likely to wait until after the international break to do so.

Foden has scored six goals in six away Premier League appearances against Brighton, with only Mohamed Salah scoring as often at the Amex as a visiting player (also six). Overall, Foden’s eight goals against the Seagulls are his most against an opponent in the competition.

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Brighton vs Man City Head-to-Head

Between 2017-18 and 2023-24, Brighton only avoided defeat in two of 14 Premier League games against Man City (W1 D1 L12). Last season, they didn’t lose against City, winning 2-1 at home and drawing 2-2 at the Etihad.

That said, Man City have won 19 out of 30 league matches against Brighton (63.3%). Among the 46 teams they’ve faced 25+ times, the only side they have a higher win ratio against is Swansea City (23 wins in 34 games, 67.6%).

Pep Guardiola is winless in both of his Premier League meetings with Brighton boss Fabian Hürzeler, who was only 15 years of age when Guardiola managed his first match with Barcelona in 2008. In Guardiola’s entire top-flight managerial league career, the only manager he’s faced three times without beating is Ronald Koeman (P3 D2 L1).

Brighton vs Man City Prediction

The Opta supercomputer has concluded that Manchester City are favourites in this match, giving them a 50.3% chance of heading into the international break with a second away win of the season.

Brighton’s chances of winning are down at 25.9% according to our simulations, while the likelihood of a draw sits at 23.8%.

Brighton vs Man City Predicted Lineups

Brighton & Hove Albion: Bart Verbruggen, Mats Wieffer, Jan Paul van Hecke, Lewis Dunk, Maxim De Cuyper, Jack Hinshelwood, Yasin Ayari, Yankuba Minteh, Matt O’Riley, Kaoru Mitoma, Danny Welbeck.

Head Coach: Fabian Hürzeler

Manchester City: James Trafford, Rico Lewis, John Stones, Rúben Dias, Nathan Aké, Tijjani Reijnders, Nico González, Bernardo Silva, Oscar Bobb, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.

Head Coach: Pep Guardiola

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Brighton vs Man City Prediction: Can Pep Guardiola’s Side Bounce Back From Tottenham Defeat? Opta Analyst.

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