New York Fed President John Williams said the era of low neutral interest rates (R-star) is not over, pointing to long-term demographic and productivity trends that continue to suppress underlying rates. Speaking in Mexico City, Williams noted that growth-adjusted R-star estimates for the U.S., euro area, U.K., and Canada remain around 0.5%, similar to pre-pandemic levels.
He acknowledged that estimating R-star has been complicated by recent shocks like pandemic-driven inflation and aggressive global rate hikes, but stressed that structural forces still point to a persistently low-rate environment. Williams cautioned policymakers not to put too much weight on precise R-star estimates, given the uncertainty involved. He did not comment on the current monetary policy outlook.
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