Who will win the Serie A title? Who will qualify for the Champions League? And which clubs are likeliest to be relegated? We answer all the key questions with our Italian Serie A 2025-26 season predictions via the Opta supercomputer.
The 2025-26 Serie A campaign kicks off in style on Saturday with a double feature of Genoa vs Lecce and reigning champions Napoli on the road against Sassuolo.
Antonio Conte’s side managed to beat Internazionale to the title on the final day of the last campaign, with league MVP Scott McTominay and Romelu Lukaku getting Napoli over the line in a 2-0 win over Cagliari at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
It was a heartbreaking end to the season for Simone Inzaghi’s Inter, who were also thrashed 5-0 in the UEFA Champions League final by Paris Saint-Germain and lost in the Coppa Italia semi-finals to rivals AC Milan.
New head coach, and former Inter player, Cristian Chivu will be hoping to bring some silverware to San Siro after promising signs at the FIFA Club World Cup this summer.
Roma missed out on the Champions League places by a single point last season but will be hoping to go a step further this time around under new head coach Gian Piero Gasperini.
After failing to qualify for European football, Lazio and Milan will have familiar faces returning to their respective touchlines in Maurizio Sarri and Massimiliano Allegri.
Both coaches have previously won the Serie A title with Juventus, while Allegri also led the Rossoneri to the trophy in 2011.
Sassuolo and Pisa gained automatic promotion to the Italian top flight, while Cremonese completed the 2025-26 Serie A lineup after defeating Spezia in the Serie B play-off final.
Here, using the 10,000 data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, we assess how the 2025-26 Serie A season could pan out.
Who Will Win the Serie A Title?
Despite finishing second last season, Inter are expected to regain their Serie A crown in the 2025-26 season by the Opta supercomputer.
Inter ended the season one point behind Napoli last time out, although the Nerazzurri scored the most goals (79) and conceded the joint-second fewest (35) behind Napoli (27).
They were led up top by Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram, with the latter scoring 14 league goals and providing four assists, while the captain registered 12 goals and three assists.
Inter have been given a 35.9% chance of winning the title this season by the supercomputer, but replacing Inzaghi will not be an easy job for Chivu.
Inzaghi boasted the highest win percentage of any Inter manager to take charge of at least 40 matches, with 65%.
Conte’s Napoli have been given just a 13.7% chance of retaining the title, despite bolstering their squad.
After scoring just the sixth-most goals in Serie A last season, Napoli have added Noa Lang, Lorenzo Lucca and veteran playmaker Kevin De Bruyne to their ranks as they look to improve in the attacking third.
During his spell at Manchester City, De Bruyne provided the most assists in all competitions among players in Europe’s top five leagues. The Belgium international recorded 170 assists in that time, with Lionel Messi in second with 147.
Meanwhile, Lucca has scored 20 Serie A goals since joining Udinese ahead of the 2023-24 campaign. He is the youngest player to reach that figure in the past two seasons, while only Duván Zapata (10) has scored more headed goals than Lucca (eight) in that period.
Napoli will have the added pressure of playing in the Champions League this time around, but Conte’s Serie A prowess should allow him to deal with the additional fixtures.
The Italian coach has the best points-per-game average of anyone in Serie A history, if all wins amounted to three points since 1929-30, with 2.24.
Atalanta are undergoing massive change following the departure of Gasperini after nine years in charge, though the supercomputer considers them among the likeliest to give Inter and Napoli a run for their money, winning the title in 12.8% of the sims.
Gasperini took charge of 342 Serie A matches with Atalanta, the second-most games managed with a single club in the league after Giovanni Trapattoni’s 402 with Juventus.
There has also been a major change in their attacking department, with last season’s top-scorer Mateo Retegui joining Saudi Pro League side Al-Qadsiah. Retegui scored 25 goals last season – the only player to reach the 20-goal mark – and also registered eight assists.
There could yet be another notable exit, with Ademola Lookman being heavily linked with a move away this summer. Only Martínez (69) has been involved in more Serie A goals in the past three seasons than Lookman (57), so the Nigeria forward’s future could be pivotal for Ivan Juric’s side. However, at the time of writing, Lookman was back in training.
Atalanta did show signs of being potential champions last season, leading the league in most away wins (13). It’s hard to ignore the significance of Gasperini and Retegui leaving, however.
Both Roma (9.9%) and Juventus (8.2%) have been given an outside chance for the Serie A title, but they are expected to at least challenge for the UEFA Champions League places.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
Just seven points separated fourth-place Juventus and eighth-place Milan last season, and the Opta supercomputer predicts another close race for the Champions League places.
All 20 teams featuring in Serie A next season have been given at least a 0.3% chance of finishing in the top four.
With Atalanta potentially being roped into a race for the top four, we could see five teams battle it out for the final two spots in Europe’s elite competition.
Roma have been given a 45.9% chance of finishing in the top four this season, under the guidance of Gasperini.
Their opening game against Bologna will be Gasperini’s 600th Serie A match, seeing him become just the fifth person to reach that milestone after Carlo Mazzone (792), Nereo Rocco (747), Trapattoni (689) and Nils Liedholm (635).
Gasperini received a huge boost as Paulo Dybala has returned from injury just in time for the new season. The Argentina international has 129 goals and 67 assists to his name in Serie A.
Roma have also loaned Evan Ferguson from Brighton. The striker is the youngest player over the past three seasons to have scored at least 15 Premier League goals.
Their closest competitors for the Champions League places are expected to be Juventus (39.7%) and Milan (36.7%).
Juventus’ loan addition of Randal Kolo Muani in January proved vital in securing a Champions League spot, with the striker scoring eight goals in 16 Serie A appearances.
This time around, Igor Tudor has brought in Jonathan David on a free transfer. The Canadian forward had 21 goal involvements in Ligue 1 with Lille last season, more than double any of his teammates, and he has reached double-figures for goals in each of his last seven campaigns.
Six-time Serie A winner Allegri has opted to strengthen Milan’s midfield after they finished eighth last season.
Ardon Jashari recorded more recoveries (169) and through balls (11) than his Club Brugge teammates last season, while Luka Modric joins off the back of a busy campaign with Real Madrid.
The former Ballon d’Or winner played a personal-high 57 matches for Los Blancos and directly contributed to 13 goals; only in 2021-22 did he register more goal involvements (15).
Lazio (28.2%) and last season’s Coppa Italia winners Bologna (24.3%) both have outside chances of breaking into the top four but are expected to settle for potential Europa League and Conference League spots.
Who Will Be Relegated From Serie A in 2025-26?
There are no overwhelming favourites to be relegated from the Italian top flight this season, but all three promoted sides are expected to struggle.
Pisa are back in Serie A for the first time since 1991 and are the likeliest to be relegated in the upcoming season at 38.2%.
Cremonese (37.4%) and Lecce (34.8%) are the next-most probable candidates to be relegated.
Lecce survived last season’s relegation battle on the final day after they beat Lazio 1-0 away from home, despite playing the second half with 10 men.
Their top-scorer from last season, Nikola Krstovic (11 goals, five assists), is already off the mark this season after bagging in their 2-0 win over Juve Stabia in the Coppa Italia.
Serie B champions Sassuolo are expected to finish above the relegation zone, as are Hellas Verona and Cagliari, who finished six and five points above the bottom three respectively last season.
Sassuolo recorded 25 wins on their way to the second division title last term, scoring the most goals (78) despite recording the fifth-highest expected goals (xG) 54.8.
Opta-Simulated Serie A Table
After simulating every match of the 2025-26 Serie A season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and rank teams positionally. Here are the Opta supercomputer results from those sims:
1st: Internazionale – 76.6 average points2nd: Napoli – 68.73rd: Atalanta – 68.54th: Roma – 66.85th: Juventus – 65.06th: Milan – 64.37th: Lazio – 61.88th: Bologna – 60.19th: Fiorentina – 58.910th: Torino – 48.511th: Como – 48.412th: Genoa – 46.813th: Udinese – 42.614th: Parma – 41.915th: Cagliari – 39.516th: Hellas Verona – 39.017th: Sassuolo – 38.818th: Lecce – 38.519th: Cremonese – 37.820th: Pisa – 37.7
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Serie A Predictions 2025-26: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Opta Analyst.
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