So once again, we all breathe a sigh of relief. Once again, the worst outcome has been averted, at least for now. We get to live another day.
For a moment there, it was touch and go. You could see the domino-sequence of outcomes, one after the other, each of them a tombstone on European history.
In a meeting last week, Vladimir Putin seemingly convinced Donald Trump that Ukraine must give up Donbas, thereby depriving it of its ability to defend against future attacks – a modern version of the Sudetenland gambit. President Volodymyr Zelensky was obviously going to refuse. In the face of that refusal, US assistance could be withdrawn. And then Europe would once again find itself facing Russia without American assistance.
Before the summit, it sounded like we were once again heading for this type of disastrous outcome. “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to,” Trump said ahead of the meeting, in an exact reversal of moral and empirical reality.
Europe’s leaders deserve credit for what happened next. They made sure that Zelensky did not walk into the trap that was laid for him last time – being abused by Trump, bullyboy JD Vance, and the collection of petulant sycophantic pro-Maga journalists gathered in the Oval Office.
This time he arrived flanked by Europe’s leading political figures: British prime minister Keir Starmer, French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish president Alexander Stubb, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Nato secretary general Mark Rutte.
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They ensured that none of the usual European squabbling could get in the way. Poland, despite its key role in defence against Russia, sat out the meeting after Trump’s White House threw a spanner in the works by demanding the attendance of populist president Karol Nawrocki rather than pro-EU prime minister Donald Tusk. Antonio Costa, president of the European Council, also sat out the meeting rather than turn it into a territorial contest with von der Leyen.
The attendees were seasoned Trump influencers – snake charmers really. By turning it into a de-facto summit, they pushed Trump into behaving like a gracious host, or at least doing a passable impression of one. In a toe-curling series of obsequious introductions they praised the US president, and surreptitiously presented their own demands as the genius achievements of Trump himself.
“Your indication of security guarantees,” Starmer said, “of some sort of Article 5 style guarantee, fits with what we’ve been doing with the Coalition of the Willing“. Look at him work. He carefully escalates the demand, going from a vague security guarantee to a full Nato-style lock, then delicately places it in Trump’s mouth. Fittingly, the TV cameras caught Vance in the background, silenced, his brow furrowed, trying to contain his outrage as events spun out of his control.
I wonder what it is like for Americans to watch these sorts of proceedings. Perhaps, for some of them, it will be flattering to see powerful European nations go to the White House and adopt this performatively subservient role. But of course the entire presentation is deeply insulting to anyone with a hint of intelligence. People do not talk this way to a person they respect, nor do they act this way with a power they admire. They are using sweet words to manipulate. It is the way you would talk to a child.
The same is true for the aesthetics of the occasion. This time Zelensky swapped his usual clothing for a military suit, thereby managing to keep to his word about not wearing a suit until the war was over but avoid another row over his clothing in the Oval Office.
It is incredible that this man, who is fighting for the survival of his country, must spend any time at all thinking about the sartorial vanity of the US president. That even one brain cell was devoted to this subject should shame America, but it is unclear if enough Americans still remember the better values of their country or what its role used to be.
Despite the mortifying embarrassment – or rather because of it – the summit worked. Trump did not repeat his nonsense about Ukraine handing Putin the Donbas. He seemed vaguely open to US involvement in a security guarantee. There was no breakdown, no angry shouting matches. Starmer and Macron deserve particular credit for their Coalition of the Willing initiative, which has provided a mechanism for Europe to take the lead on Ukrainian security guarantees and thereby made it more palatable for Trump to countenance some kind of light-touch American involvement.
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But we should be clear about something. This summit is a humiliation for Europe. Last week’s meeting between Trump and Putin was a humiliation for Europe. Every aspect of this arrangement is a humiliation for Europe. Because in every instance it involves decisions about Europe’s future being taken over Europe’s head. They may be able to nudge Trump in the right direction for now, but the continent’s future should not be dependent on being able to suitably influence a thin-skinned madman on the other side of the Atlantic.
We have known since at least 2016 that America is no longer a serious country. This is not just a Trump issue, it surpasses him. Any country willing to elect someone like that – not once, but twice – can no longer be relied upon. And yet in that time Europe has chosen to hope that everything returned to normal rather than preparing to take charge of its own destiny.
Europe is now finally starting to rearm, but we must be realistic. It will probably take a decade for the continent to be ready to operate militarily without American assistance. For now, leaders must continue to flatter and seduce Trump, so that US involvement continues.
But the moral demand on European leaders is clear. There is one key test that every single one of them must be judged by: what have you done to make sure this humiliation never happens again? That Europe can protect itself without appealing to the US?
Unless that happens, we’ll be back here in 10 years time, having our destiny decided for us by people who aren’t fit to touch Zelensky’s shoes.
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