Who will win the Bundesliga? Who will qualify for the Champions League? And which clubs are likeliest to be relegated? We answer all the key questions with our Bundesliga 2025-26 season predictions via the Opta supercomputer.
German top-flight football returns on Friday as champions Bayern Munich raise the curtain on the new Bundesliga campaign against RB Leipzig at Allianz Arena.
Vincent Kompany’s first season at the helm in Bavaria was a successful one as Bayern finished 13 points clear of Bayer Leverkusen to wrestle the Meisterschale back from Die Werkself.
Harry Kane scored 26 goals in 31 league outings for Bayern, a drop-off of 10 from his spectacular debut season in 2023-24, but still enough to retain the Torjägerkanone (top goalscorer award).
And Bayern have given Kane further support ahead of 2024-25 after falling short at the FIFA Club World Cup, going down 2-1 to Paris Saint-Germain in the quarter-finals and losing Jamal Musiala to a fractured fibula.
Luis Díaz has arrived off the back of his best scoring season for Liverpool, joining Bayern after netting 17 times in all competitions for Arne Slot’s Premier League champions in 2024-25.
Centre-back Jonathan Tah has also arrived on a free transfer from Leverkusen, who are under new management after losing Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid.
Alonso was unable to mastermind a successful defence of their Bundesliga crown and successor Erik ten Hag has had to deal with plenty of change. Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Granit Xhaka and Lukas Hradecky have also departed, while Amine Adli is being strongly linked with a move to Bournemouth. Malik Tillman, Jarrell Quansah and Ibrahim Maza are among a host of new signings looking to fill some of those gaps.
Leverkusen are not the only side to lose talent, with Eintracht Frankfurt selling striker Hugo Ekitiké to Liverpool after finishing third in 2024-25. Former Mainz star Jonathan Burkardt is the Frenchman’s replacement, as Dino Toppmöller aims to achieve UEFA Champions League qualification again.
Borussia Dortmund will hope to fare better in their first full season under Niko Kovac, having only sealed Champions League football on the final matchday in 2024-25, while Ole Werner has been tasked with overseeing Leipzig’s latest rebuild after they finished sixth last term.
And there are plenty more stories to look out for, from Stuttgart‘s bid to build on their DFB-Pokal triumph to Hamburger SV‘s long-awaited return to the big time – and, of course, their derbies against St. Pauli.
Having simulated the campaign 10,000 times, the Opta supercomputer has forecasted how the 2025-26 season will pan out.
Who Will Win the Bundesliga?
Bayern Munich finished third behind Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in 2023-24, but as many expected, that proved to be a temporary blip.
Having reclaimed the title with two games to spare in 2024-25, Bayern have now won 12 of the last 13 editions of the Bundesliga, a run that began after Jürgen Klopp led Borussia Dortmund to successive titles in 2010-11 and 2011-12. Dortmund were the third different champions in five years back then, but things look very different now.
It is no surprise that Bayern are the supercomputer’s overwhelming title favourites again, retaining their crown in 52.9% of season simulations.
Bayern have not had a particularly busy transfer window, but Díaz and Tah went straight into Kompany’s starting XI for the 2-1 win over Stuttgart in the recently rebranded Franz Beckenbauer Supercup on Saturday, with Díaz scoring what proved to be the winner.
The Colombian enjoyed his the best goalscoring campaign of his career in Europe’s top five leagues last term, also averaging 2.1 open-play chances created per 90 minutes in the Premier League. Michael Olise was the only Bayern player to better that figure in the Bundesliga (2.88).
Díaz also won possession in the final third more often than any other Liverpool forward last season (147 times in all competitions), so he should be an excellent fit for a Bayern team that recorded 324 high turnovers in the Bundesliga last term, turning 67 into shots and 15 into goals – all of those were league-high figures.
Díaz arrives amid the departures of fellow wingers Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sané, who have joined Al-Nassr and Galatasaray respectively. It will also be Bayern’s first season without Thomas Müller in the squad since 2007-08, after their outright record appearance-maker joined the Vancouver Whitecaps following 756 outings for the Rekordmeister.
Müller was limited to just 19 competitive starts in all competitions last season, but his 15 goal involvements (8 goals, 7 assists) were still the joint-sixth most of any Bayern player, after Kane (53), Olise (40), Musiala (26), Sané (18) and Serge Gnabry (15).
Bayern were only two goals away from matching their own single-season Bundesliga record (101 in 1971-72) last term, and in their top-flight history, they have only averaged more goals per league game under Hansi Flick (3) than under Kompany (2.91, minimum 10 games in charge).
They will look to blow the opposition out of the water again in 2025-26, and in Kane, they have Europe’s most lethal finisher. Since joining Bayern in 2023, Kane has scored 86 goals from 70.7 expected goals (xG) in all competitions, the best overperformance of any player from Europe’s top five leagues. He is eyeing a third Bundesliga Golden Boot, which would leave Robert Lewandowski and Gerd Müller as the only players with more (seven each).
Should Bayern slip up, the supercomputer feels Ten Hag, who managed their B Team from 2013 to 2015, could stand to profit. The Dutchman’s Leverkusen side are assigned a 16.9% chance of regaining the title and are deemed the most likely runners-up at 22.2%.
Ten Hag has called for patience as he rebuilds following a host of exits, and the loss of playmaker Wirtz will surely be felt after he registered 67 goal involvements across his final two seasons at the BayArena (34 goals, 33 assists).
In Wirtz, Xhaka, Frimpong and Tah, Leverkusen have lost four of their top six players for attacking sequence involvements in the Bundesliga last season, with only left-backÁlex Grimaldo (third) and Piero Hincapié (fifth) remaining from that group.
They have, however, kept hold of Patrik Schick, who scored 21 goals in 31 Bundesliga appearances last season, registering a league-high xG overperformance of 8.3 (12.7 xG). His clinical finishing was crucial as Leverkusen only ranked fifth in the league for xG (58.5) but scored the second-most goals (72).
Ten Hag will hope Ibrahim Maza – who completed the second-most dribbles in the Bundesliga.2 at Hertha Berlin last season (75) – and Malik Tillman can provide Schick with adequate support.
United States international Tillman has been given Wirtz’s number 10 shirt following his move from PSV; no player bettered his six goals from outside the box in Europe’s top 10 divisions last season.
Dortmund are the supercomputer’s third favourites for the title, topping the table in 15.8% of simulations and finishing second in 21.1%, only 1.1% fewer than Leverkusen.
BVB have snuck into the Champions League in each of the last two campaigns, taking advantage of the Bundesliga getting a fifth spot in 2023-24 then overhauling Freiburg to finish fourth on the final day of 2024-25, following 30 matchdays outside the top four.
Kovac became the first man to win a Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal double as both a player and a coach when he led Bayern to glory in 2019, and he oversaw a marked improvement after taking over a team that was 11th in the Bundesliga when Nuri Şahin was sacked in January.
Dortmund’s biggest improvements under Kovac have come in the defensive third. Having conceded 1.72 goals and 1.35 xG against per Bundesliga game under Şahin, they saw those figures drop to 1.21 and 1.19 after changing coach in January.
Serhou Guirassy has stayed put after matching Raphinha as the joint-top goalscorer in the Champions League last term (13), an achievement he followed up with five goals in four FIFA Club World Cup matches.
However, Dortmund have been relatively quiet in the transfer market, with Jobe Bellingham their standout purchase after he helped Sunderland win promotion to the Premier League. After a chaotic few years, BVB may be happy to consolidate with a top-three finish, achieving that goal in 54.7% of simulations.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
Bayern (91.6%), Leverkusen (69.5%) and Dortmund (68%) are all seen as likely to secure Champions League football in 2025-26. But with the top four qualifying for UEFA’s elite club competition, the supercomputer forecasts an intriguing battle.
Six other teams are assigned more than a 10% chance of a top-four finish – Eintracht Frankfurt, Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, Mainz 05, Freiburg and Werder Bremen.
Eintracht finished third last season, their highest Bundesliga finish since 1992-93 (also third), and they are given a 36.4% chance of making the top four again.
They will, of course, have to cope without Ekitiké, who has made a flying start to his Liverpool career with two goals in as many games. Ekitiké and Omar Marmoush – who joined Manchester City in January – were the only players to score more than five league goals for them last season.
But Eintracht are known for their ability to develop forwards, having sold Randal Kolo Muani, Ekitiké, Marmoush, Luka Jović and Sébastien Haller for fees north of €50m in the last six years. Might Burkardt be their next star? With 18 Bundesliga goals for Mainz, he was the top-scoring German in Europe’s top five leagues last term.
Stuttgart are next in line with a 28.8% chance of a top-four finish. They ended up in ninth place under Sebastian Hoeneß last term, but did win their first major trophy in 18 years, beating Arminia Bielefeld in the DFB-Pokal final.
Despite interest from Bayern, Stuttgart have retained one of the Bundesliga’s hottest properties in Nick Woltemade. He had 20 goal involvements across all competitions last season (17 goals, 3 assists), becoming one of just 15 players born in 2002 or later to do so from Europe’s top five leagues.
RB Leipzig are forecast to finish sixth, but make the top four in 27.4% of scenarios. Like Eintracht, they lost their star striker to the Premier League as Manchester United swooped for Benjamin Sesko.
Sesko’s Bundesliga goal return dropped slightly from 14 goals in 2023-24 to 13 in 2024-25, but as Leipzig dropped from fourth to seventh in the table, the Slovenian spent less time in dangerous positions and saw his per-90 touches in the opposition box drop from 5.8 to 3.7.
Brazilian forward Rômulo has been tasked with filling Sesko’s boots after arriving from Turkish Süper Lig side Göztepe, while Johan Bakayoko is an exciting addition from PSV. Leipzig are also under new management, with Ole Werner joining after stabilising Werder Bremen in the top flight.
Werner oversaw finishes of 13th, ninth and eighth after leading Bremen back into the Bundesliga in 2022, and his former club are given a 12.3% chance of leaping into the top four under his successor, Horst Steffen.
They are deemed as less likely to gatecrash the Champions League spots than Mainz (20.2%) and Freiburg (14.3%). Both clubs enjoyed terrific seasons in 2024-25, with Bo Henriksen delivering a fifth-placed finish as Mainz qualified for Europe for only the fourth time.
Julian Schuster, meanwhile, built on the legacy of his Freiburg predecessor Christian Streich by leading his new club into contention for a Champions League spot, but they squandered a 1-0 lead to lose 3-1 to Eintracht on the final day, slipping out of the top four.
Ritsu Doan has left for Eintracht after top-scoring for Freiburg with 10 goals last term, but a defence that allowed the fourth-lowest xGA in the league (43.18) should keep them in contention.
Who Will Be Relegated From the Bundesliga?
There are also no overwhelming favourites for relegation, with eight different clubs given more than a 10% chance of finishing in the bottom two.
Köln won the Bundesliga.2 title ahead of Hamburger SV last season, the third time they have topped the second tier in the last 11 years. However, they are the favourites to drop with a 31.1% chance of a bottom-two finish, and a 12.2% chance of being in the relegation play-off.
It was a close shave for Heidenheim last season, as a 95th-minute goal from Léo Scienza saw them beat Elversberg 4-3 on aggregate in the relegation play-off, having recovered from 2-0 down to draw the first leg 2-2.
Frank Schmidt’s men are expected to be in danger again, going down automatically in 29.5% of simulations and being forced into another play-off in 11.8%.
They are one of the teams HSV will be hoping to reel in after ending their seven-year Bundesliga exile. The former European champions have a 29% chance of relegation but a 59.5% chance of steering clear of the bottom three.
Their derby meetings with St. Pauli will be one of the big stories ahead of the new campaign, with the first of them scheduled for Matchday 2 at the Volksparkstadion.
St. Pauli finished in the bottom two in 28.4% of simulations. However, only Bayern (32) conceded fewer than Alexander Blessin’s team (41) in the Bundesliga last season, so they will be a tough nut to crack.
Hoffenheim (15.2%), Union Berlin (15.1%), Augsburg (13.5%) and Borussia Mönchengladbach (12.3%) are also given more than a one-in-10 chance of automatic relegation, while Wolfsburg may not be safe at 8.6%.
Opta-Simulated Bundesliga Table
After simulating every match of the 2025-26 Bundesliga season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and rank teams positionally. Here are the Opta supercomputer results from those sims:
1st: Bayern Munich – 72.0 average points2nd: Bayer Leverkusen – 63.43rd: Borussia Dortmund – 63.04th: Eintracht Frankfurt – 54.95th: Stuttgart – 52.66th: RB Leipzig – 52.07th: Mainz 05 – 49.58th: Freiburg – 47.09th: Werder Bremen – 46.110th: Wolfsburg – 43.311th: Borussia Mönchengladbach – 41.512th: Augsburg – 40.513th: Union Berlin – 39.814th: Hoffenheim – 39.515th: St. Pauli – 35.116th: Hamburger SV – 35.017th: Heidenheim – 34.818th: Köln – 34.4
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Bundesliga Predictions 2025-26: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Opta Analyst.
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