Wells Fargo is projecting US retail sales to be +0.6% m/m, with a bounce in auto sales and higher prices set to provide a sizable lift to the headline reading. But when excluding autos, the firm says "we look for the sales gain to be half as large (+0.3%)". That as "consumers have shown signs of spending fatigue recently as they've cut back on discretionary purchases". Adding that "we suspect the moderating job market and concern over tariff-induced price pressure has led to consumers to grow more choosy".
Well, if markets can agree to the latter points then it will set up for a bit of a Goldilocks scenario as mentioned earlier. And that will work well for traders in reaffirming a 25 bps rate cut for September, at least for now.
Besides Wells Fargo, here's some other commentary by other analysts (h/t @ MNI):
BofA"We are forecasting a 0.6% m/m increase in retail sales control group. We think that CPI core goods ex transportation is a good measure of control group inflation. So, our forecast would imply the retail sales control group rose by 0.4% m/m in real terms."
Deutsche"The surprising strength in unit motor vehicle sales in July should boost headline retail sales (+1.2% vs +0.6% estimate) relative to sales excluding automobiles (+0.4% vs +0.5% estimate). That being said, retail control (+0.5% vs +0.5% estimate) should remain sturdy. Though we have built in a relatively strong gain in non-store retailers (+1.4% vs +0.4% estimate) into our July retail sales forecasts, there may still be some upside risk given that this year's Amazon Prime Day event was held over a four-day period instead of the usual two-day period."
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