As Israel threatens to occupy Gaza, Arab regimes have another plan ...Middle East

As Israel prepares a new offensive to occupy Gaza City, Arab regimes are pressing ahead with an alternative plan for the beleaguered enclave, involving a change in government, security measures, and reconstruction.

The 22-nation Arab League first floated a blueprint for ending the war and rebuilding Gaza at an emergency summit in March, in response to Donald Trump’s proposal to “clean out” Palestinian residents and turn the Strip into a beach resort.

The League went further last month with the New York Declaration, backed by the UK and EU, which called for Hamas to cede governance in Gaza and disarm, to be replaced by a Palestinian-led civilian government and an international peacekeeping force.

Signatories said this would unlock a $53bn (£39bn) reconstruction fund for the devastated territory, lead to new talks on a “political horizon” for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through a two-state solution, and further Israel-Arab normalisation deals.

A recently retired British diplomat with a Middle East focus said the unified statement, with its commitment to sidelining Hamas, was unprecedented and created a window of opportunity.

“We have never seen that before,” they said, “The statement would have gone against some strong supporters of Hamas and the Palestinian resistance… Getting them all to sign up to it publicly was very important. The question is, what can we make of this?”

While Benjamin Netanyahu’s Government has broken off talks with Hamas and committed to occupying Gaza – which aid groups say would involve mass expulsions and worsen the humanitarian crisis – Arab mediators are shuttling between Israeli and Palestinian factions in the hope of agreeing on a formula for a ceasefire, and preparing for the day after.

This week, Egypt announced that together with Jordan it would begin training 5,000 Palestinian police officers to be deployed in post-war Gaza, and 15 local administrators had been agreed to manage different areas of the Strip in consultation with the Palestinian Authority (PA), which exercises limited self-government in the occupied West Bank.

The Arab League had previously proposed that the UN play a security role. Arab nations who have normalised relations with Israel, such as the United Arab Emirates, have said they could supply troops for a multi-national force.

Arab powers have reportedly also agreed on an overall governor for Gaza, Canada-based Palestinian businessman Samir Halilah, who is said to have US endorsement.

Halilah confirmed that he expects to lead a “transitional governing council” with the support of Egypt and Saudi Arabia in an interview with Palestinian news agency Ma’an this week.

The businessman added that international pressure could produce a comprehensive deal in the coming weeks covering Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, the decommissioning of Hamas, reconstruction, and a new Arab-Palestinian security force.

Spokespeople for Egypt and Saudi Arabia declined to comment.

Daoud Kuttab, a veteran Palestinian journalist based in Jordan who has reported on Halilah’s career, described him as “politically smart and flexible…he is not affiliated (to any Palestinian faction), he is much closer to business.”

Halilah’s appointment has support from PA President Mahmoud Abbas, said Kuttab, with the veteran leader willing to play a background role to secure a deal.

Netanyahu has said the next leadership of Gaza will be “non-Israeli” but also ruled out the PA taking charge, as well as Hamas remaining in power.

Leaders of the militant group, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, say they are willing to cede control of the Strip.

“We are ready today, if not yesterday, to step back from governance to hand it over to a body, a government, a committee, that is ready to run the Gaza Strip,” senior Hamas official Bassem Naim said in February.

But Hamas has described disarmament as a “red line” that could only be implemented after the establishment of an “independent, fully sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.”

The British former diplomat suggested that position still left scope for a phased deal, which could include a ceasefire, hostage release, and installation of a new administration and security force in Gaza, with the most difficult issue left until last.

“My understanding from negotiations with terrorist groups around the world is that disarmament is the end of the process, not the beginning,” they said.

Israeli security experts and political insiders believe the Arab proposal could provide the basis for an agreement.

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Amos Yadlin – former head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate, and now a security consultant to the Israeli Government – described the plans as “important and realistic”.

They could provide an off-ramp from a costly and damaging occupation of Gaza, he said.“I hope the mediators will recognise that this is the right plan and, with the necessary adjustments, present it as a ‘take it or leave it’ proposal to both sides,” he added.

Professor Kobi Michael, a military analyst at the Israeli think tanks the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, suggested Israel could support the plans with some additional “terms and conditions.”

Israel will not accept a peacekeeping role for the UN over its perceived failures in Gaza and Lebanon, he said, but could support a force composed of Arab nations it has close relations with, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.

Michael further suggested that Israel issue an “ultimatum” to Hamas to disarm or face a potentially years-long Israeli occupation and military administration of Gaza.

Arab Governments’ policy of engagement with Israel has been unpopular with their publics during the bombardment of Gaza, said Chris Doyle, head of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, a UK-based Middle East policy group.

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No Arab regime which had formal relations with Israel going into the war in Gaza has since cut them, despite more than 64,000 Palestinians being killed in the conflict.

Egypt recently signed a record $35bn (£26bn) gas deal with an Israeli supplier, Doyle noted, suggesting this marked a policy of “business as usual”, with self-interest overriding solidarity with Palestinians.

Arab leaders argue that engagement with Israel makes strategic sense in order to influence negotiations, said Doyle, which has left regional powers in a similar position to European governments as they seek to rein in Netanyahu’s Government while maintaining relations.

Leaders in the Arab world and Europe have recognised the need for a “unified approach” to counteract the US, he said, which has continued to offer strong support for Israel throughout the war.

The Europe-Arab alliance has been seen in the Saudi-French initiative that led to the New York Declaration, and most European governments voiced support for the Arab plan.

Israel, too, could come to regard the plan as a convenient off-ramp as the war drags on, bringing rising costs, military exhaustion, and increasing opposition at home and abroad, said Doyle.

“September will be an utterly crucial month,” he said, referring to plans by several governments, including the UK, to recognise a Palestinian state at the next UN General Assembly session, which could come as Israel mounts a new offensive in Gaza.

But the influence of far-right extremists in Netanyahu’s Government may drown out the voices calling for a deal, even if it serves Israel’s interests and delivers war aims, from removing Hamas to the return of hostages, suggested Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House.

He cited finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who are both demanding permanent occupation and Israeli settlements in Gaza.

“Ben Gvir and Smotrich are for now dictating what is possible and what is not,” he said.

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