The Israeli Alma Research Center stated in a report published Thursday, August 7, that Israel’s security needs prevent any safe and sustainable withdrawal from Syria or Lebanon, stressing that the presence of Israeli military forces in southern Syria “is not a temporary bargaining chip but a long-term strategic security position imposed by complex political and field realities.”
Despite intensive international diplomatic activity aimed at stabilizing the borders between Syria, Lebanon, and Israel, the basic requirements for a safe and sustainable withdrawal of the Israeli army from advanced positions in southern Syria and Lebanon are currently absent and unlikely to materialize in the near future, according to the center’s report.
Alma Center specializes in research and provides field briefings at various observation points along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon and Syria.
In Syria, according to the report, the so-called “new Sunni regime” led by Ahmad al-Sharaa seeks to achieve a main goal of re-establishing the central state’s sovereignty over all parts of the country.
This goal directly conflicts, the report says, with “Israel’s supreme security demand for an expanded demilitarized buffer zone in southern Syria, including the territory south of Damascus.”
This demand became absolute in light of the fact that the new Syrian army, according to Alma, is largely composed of “militias,” including “former jihadists” who, in March and July 2025, committed what it described as “massacres against Alawites and Druze” — referring to the coastal and Suwayda incidents.
The Alma Research Center considers the presence of the Israeli army in five advanced positions in southern Lebanon and nine positions on the Syrian side of the 1974 disengagement line “not a temporary bargaining chip,” but “a necessary and long-term security stance” adopted in the face of “an insoluble diplomatic reality,” as it put it.
According to the report, Syria and Hezbollah have no intention of meeting what it calls “Israel’s conditions for withdrawal from the northern fronts,” noting that any diplomatic process that ignores this core conflict is doomed to fail.
This conclusion, Alma says, comes in light of the “new Israeli security doctrine” which emphasizes the goal of eliminating the capabilities of what it calls “the enemy” as a top priority, excluding approaches such as containment, restraint, or buying calm by ignoring the buildup of “jihadist” forces on Israel’s borders — a direct lesson from the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023.
Buffer Zone
Hours after the fall of the former regime on December 8, 2024, Israel advanced into several areas of southern Syria in Quneitra and Daraa provinces.
In his first comment on the Israeli incursion after assuming power, al-Sharaa said on December 14, 2024, that Israel’s pretexts had ended, stressing there was no justification for foreign intervention in Syria to end Iran’s presence in the country.
Al-Sharaa confirmed he does not intend to engage in armed conflict with Israel, saying it is not the battle he will fight.
Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi rejected al-Sharaa’s remarks, stating during a visit to the occupied Syrian Golan Heights that Israel’s focus is on its own security and it has no aim of interfering in Syria.
Halevi added that the Israeli army focuses on securing the occupied Golan from “extremist threats,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth on December 14, 2024.
The Israeli army destroyed numerous Syrian military sites in southern Syria, Damascus, Latakia, Homs, and Aleppo after Assad’s fall — measures Israel described as preemptive to prevent them from falling into the hands of “extremists” and to ensure its security.
Israel says it wants a demilitarized zone in southern Syria to prevent any future attacks on its territory similar to those of October 7, 2023, according to an interview with its foreign minister in The Jerusalem Post on December 28, 2024.
On that date, Hamas and other Palestinian factions in Gaza launched a rocket and paraglider attack on Israeli settlements surrounding Gaza, calling it “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.”
Israeli incursions into southern Syria have recently increased, the latest being on Wednesday, August 6, when an Israeli army patrol advanced via the Jabata al-Khashab road toward Mazari al-Amal in Quneitra, reaching the Ain al-Nouriya area.
A media activist from Quneitra province, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told Enab Baladi earlier that the patrol consisted of about ten vehicles and armored units, accompanied by heavy reconnaissance drone activity over Quneitra.
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